Pamela MaldonadoMar 11, 2026, 11:06 AM ET
ClosePamela Maldonado is a sports betting analyst for ESPN.
Multiple Authors
TPC Sawgrass is unlike anything else on the PGA Tour calendar. It rewards a complete precision player, the one who can execute a specific shot shape to a specific target under sustained pressure for 72 holes.
The Stadium Course is an iron player’s paradise and a bomber’s nightmare, with tight tree-line fairways, small firm greens that are nearly impossible to hold from the wrong angle, and water lurking on 17 of 18 holes waiting to punish the slightest miscalculation.
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The statistical profile that excels here is fairly consistent — elite iron player followed by driving accuracy, bermuda putting and bogey avoidance. Distance matters but only when paired with accuracy.
The forecasted conditions this week amplify those demands. Thursday opens with winds, rain, and a potential storm in the afternoon, creating a significant split between morning and afternoon starts that could shape the entire tournament.
History shows that early Thursday starters gain a meaningful edge at Sawgrass, accessing smoother greens and calmer conditions before the course firms up and the wind strengthens. This week that advantage is magnified with afternoon starters walking directly into worsening conditions.
By Friday, the wind shifts, and Sunday brings high probability of rain with afternoon gusts, making Saturday stand alone as the one clean scoring window of the week. With that in mind, the Thursday morning start times are not just an advantage but potentially the most decisive non-golf factor the entire weekend.
Here are players to bet on and play in daily fantasy.
Odds by DraftKings Sportsbook
(with ties) and subject to change.
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Collin Morikawa: Top 10 (+190)
Full odds:
Top 20 -112
Top 10 +190
Top 5 +385
To win +2050
Morikawa leads the field with iron play, and is the No. 1 approach player on tour. His strategy of drawing arrows in his yardage book to map green slopes and identify no-go zones before he ever hits a shot is clearly helping. He’s not just aiming at pins, he’s aiming at specific spots in what he calls “fairway hallway,” managing his signature fade to specific target areas.
At a course where one degree of error on approach sends your ball into either water or off a false front, that level of obsessive precision is a genuine competitive advantage over the field.
His recent form only backs it up. Morikawa won at Pebble Beach, finished T7 at Riviera, and T5 at Bay Hill. That’s three straight elite results at the best warmup courses on the calendar.
A huge benefit to Morikawa, he tees off at 8:40 a.m. Thursday, beating the storms forecasted for the afternoon wave entirely.
There’s two ways to play him. Top 20 at (-112) is juiced but you’d be laying it on the best statistical fit at the most critical stat at this course. The juice is worth the squeeze. Or step up to Top 10 (+190), plus money on a player has the fit to win this tournament. Top 10 is a value play.
Daniel Berger: Top 20 (+168)
Full odds:
Top 30 +110
Top 10 370
Top 5 +800
To win +5000
His game is built for precision and patience, finding fairways, hitting calculated iron shots and letting the course come to him rather than forcing action. At Sawgrass, that playing style is exactly what the course rewards.
The market hasn’t fully adjusted from Bay Hill. Berger finished 2nd, gaining nearly eight strokes on approach, one of the best final comp course results. He has the second earliest tee-time, cashed a top 20 last season with a worse draw and a worse recent form than he has now.
Course history at a venue this unique is beneficial because it means he understands the angles, knows where the misses need to go, and doesn’t get rattled by the pressure that 17 puts on every player in the field.
The market is still pricing in the injury history that kept him off tour for a stretch. That discount is the edge. A solid ball striker showing up off a runner-up finish with proven course history at plus money is a well-constructed wager.
Jake Knapp: Top 20 (+175)
Full odds:
Top 30 +102
Top 10 +380
Top 5 +810
To win +5000
When Knapp’s driver is working and the putter gets hot, the course feels small to him. And he has the scorecard history to match it, including a 59 round that shows his ceiling.
He’s a modern power player sitting top 10 in driving distance, which at Sawgrass means shorter irons into greens, reachable par 5s, and birdie looks that other players don’t get. Pair that with a putting stroke that is 2nd on tour in strokes gained and you have a killer combo, a bomber who can also make everything when the week clicks.
He has five straight Top 11 finishes, including T6 at Riviera. This isn’t new territory for him, either; he finished T12 at this tournament last year, showing that his potential is not just theoretical.
With question marks to some of the top players, it could be a huge breakout week for Knapp. Even though the driving accuracy in the wind could be a legitimate risk factor, his form, putting and history makes a plus-money play worth backing.
While Morikawa, Berger and Knapp are the placement market plays this week, make no mistake, all three have win equity at Sawgrass, a course that rewards exactly what each of them does best.
The two biggest names in golf are sitting out of this betting card entirely. It’s not contrarian but rather, the data supports fading (or not playing) both of them this week.
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Scheffler is the best player in the world and his overall numbers still reflect that but real problems have emerged. Scheffler has lost strokes on approach in three straight starts. And now heading into the one tournament where approach play matters more than anywhere else. His current iron play sits at 55th in the field. For context, Morikawa is first. At a course that essentially functions as a four-day iron play exam, showing up with your worst iron stretch in over a year is a huge red flag regardless of ranking. His Top 5 price usually sits about -160 t0 -185. It’s not +100. That tells you he’s cooled off a bit.
With McIlroy, you’re talking about the defending champ and two-time winner here, and perhaps the most complete Sawgrass profile in the field … when he’s healthy. Two things make him unplayable this week (+148 for a Top 10). First, the WD at Bay Hill with back spasms creates a real health uncertainty at a course that demands full commitments on every shot. Second, and most damaging, he draws a 1:42 p.m. Thursday tee off. The afternoon guys will take the field during the worst weather window of the week. Reputation doesn’t hit fairways but tee times and health do.
Leave the clubs in the bag, adding either Scottie or Rory doesn’t help your card but adds risk.
Players to consider for Daily Fantasy
Ludvig Åberg, $8,700: He just finished T3 at Bay Hill with over five strokes gained on approach. He lives in the area, knows this course, and has a T8 finish here in 2024. He will be highly rostered and for good reason, but in large field tournaments you want the guys who can go nuclear, and Aberg’s combination of elite power, sharp iron player and course familiarity makes him exactly that. Boom or bust and this week the boom case is compelling.
Jacob Bridgeman, $7,900: He’s underpriced relative to his statistical profile; third on approach, first in putting and way cheaper than Aberg or other top tier guys. The market hasn’t fully priced his Riviera win yet, books and DFS sites are still treating him as a mid-tier option. He’ll have lower ownership than his profile deserves because he’s not a name-brand player yet. Low roster percentage plus elite stats plus Sawgrass-fit is the DFS formula.
Min Woo Lee, $7,500: His afternoon tee time on Thursday killed my interest in betting him but for DFS, but that could be okay. Lee at 1:54 p.m. in a storm could be one of the least rostsered legit contenders on the slate. That’s exactly where tournament equity lives.
He’s top 10 in weighted strokes gained off the tee, around the green, tee-to-green and finished T2 at Pebble, T12 at Riviera and T6 at Bay Hill. He’s priced as a mid-tier option when his stats really are top 10 in the field. The draw hurts the floor with a real missed cut scenario if Thursday goes badly but in DFS, you’re paying for ceilings. Lee’s ceiling is a top 5 finish. Pair him with Morikawa.
DFS player to fade
Scottie Scheffler, $14,200: Yes, I’m advising to fade Scottie again. His price is a tournament killing salary. Building around Scheffler means sacrificing value everywhere else in your lineup. That’s a massive premium for a player whose iron play, the single most important stat on the course, has gone cold at exactly the wrong time.
His metrics simply don’t justify the price tag.