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The escalating conflict in the Middle East is causing massive losses for the travel and tourism industry, a new study reveals.
The World Travel & Tourism Council (WTTC) estimates the US and Israeli assault on Iran, together with Tehran’s retaliatory strikes on Gulf nations, has cut international visitor spending across the Middle East by at least US$600m (£450m) per day – around £20m per hour.
The organisation attributes the slump to “disruptions to air travel, traveller confidence and regional connectivity”. Normally, around half a million passengers per day fly to, from or via the three big aviation hubs: Dubai and Abu Dhabi in the UAE, and Doha in Qatar. The region usually accounts for five per cent of global international arrivals. One in seven international passengers making connecting flights is transferring at one of the Gulf hubs.
But commercial operations at those airports have largely collapsed, along with inbound tourism. Many governments, including the UK, warn against travel to the region.
“Any disruption affects demand worldwide, which impacts airports and flights, hotels, car hire companies and cruise lines,” the WTTC report says.
Gloria Guevara, the organisation’s president and chief executive of the WTTC, said: “History shows that the sector can recover quickly, especially when governments support travellers through hotel support or repatriation.
“Our analysis of previous crises demonstrates that security-related incidents often see the fastest tourism recovery times, in some cases as quickly as two months, when governments and industry work together to restore traveller confidence.”
Speaking exclusively to The Independent, the senior aviation figure Jonathan Hinkles said: “I think the ‘via’ market across the Gulf hubs will recover pretty quickly, despite the images of the terminal at Dubai being hit by an exploding drone – a pretty sobering sight for the millions who’ve seen that view in normal times. But at the end of the day, the Gulf carriers will be able to recover that market through price alone.
“The tourism industry to the Gulf states will take rather longer to bounce back, I suspect. I believe people will be more wary, having seen both the impact of the strikes on major hotels in Dubai, for one, but also the travel disruption of those who were in situ as this began.”
Many holidaymakers who were caught up in the conflict had to shelter from Iranian raids before finding a flight home – possibly involving a road trip across the desert to Muscat in Oman.
Tony Wheeler, co- founder of the Lonely Planet travel guide empire, said the conflict would “put a little bit of a dent” in the fortunes of Emirates, the leading Gulf airline. But he forecast that connectivity would help the airline bounce back.
“Basically, these days, if you want to go anywhere in the world, you can do it with one stop in Dubai,” he told The Independent travel podcast from his home in Melbourne.
“I’m amazed: Africans you meet, and they say, ‘I’m from Hargeisa in Somaliland’.
“How do you get from Melbourne to Hargeisa? One stop, you fly to Dubai, and you jump on another plane. Boom, you’re there. It’s phenomenal. People won’t want to pass that convenience up.”
At present, though, the Foreign Office warns against changing planes in any of the Gulf hubs.
Read more: How will the Gulf crisis hit passenger confidence?