Pep Guardiola got it completely wrong

Vincent Kompany is often called a disciple of Pep Guardiola, so understanding where Pep went wrong can help shed some light on a potential Champions League quarter-final. FC Bayern will surely face one of these teams next month, with Real Madrid looking like the favorites at the moment.

Manchester City were undone from the outset, with Pep opting for an offense-heavy lineup with no less than FIVE attackers — Erling Haaland, Jérémy Doku, Antoine Semenyo, Savinho, and Bernardo Silva. Rodri started as the sole midfielder, which turned out to be a massive mistake.

City gambled on all-out-offense to overwhelm Madrid early and it nearly worked. For the first 15 minutes, Pep had Madrid pinned back in their own box, just barely fending off wave after wave of attack. The problem is, it got stale very quickly, as Madrid deciphered City’s rhythm and started to mount counterattacks. Once that started, everything fell apart quick.

Pep set his team up to be offense heavy, with the tradeoff being that they were open at the back. He likely counted on dominating possession to keep his team safe, but that’s simply not enough against an elite counterattacking unit like Real Madrid. The Spaniards found it easy to beat the press and glide through Pep’s unwieldy setup, leading to some shocking goals conceded.

Never count Real Madrid out

Vinicius Jr. out of form?

None of it matters. Real Madrid know how to turn up in the Champions League, and Manchester City were simply their latest victim. Before the game, no one could have predicted that this current Madrid team would go 3-0 up on City inside 45 minutes. No one could have predicted a Valverde hat trick.

That’s the thing about Madrid. No matter what the scenario, they somehow find something extra in the Champions League. It’s purely mental — something no other team can replicate. It may be their greatest strength.

Lose the midfield battle at your own peril

In the UEFA Champions League, the team that wins the midfield battle wins the tie. Madrid stamped their authority on the center of the pitch with Aurélien Tchouaméni having an incredible game, doing the work of three men.

Pep made two mistakes. One, he thought Rodri could handle the midfield by himself. That did not happen. Two, he thought an aggressive gegenpress would be enough to keep the Spaniards at bay. He didn’t count for their passing range and accuracy, and their ability ability to ruthlessly punish open spaces with counterattacks.

In the end, City found themselves repeatedly outnumbered and out-fought in the middle of the pitch. It wasn’t simply a tactical issue, Madrid also showed more hustle, more hunger than their City counterparts. When it all comes together like that, you get the disaster that City suffered on the night.

Trent Alexander-Arnold is an Achilles’ heel

Pep did get one thing right. He correctly identified Trent Alexander-Arnold as a defensive liability, and decided to target him with a dribbly winger in Jérémy Doku.

It didn’t result in a goal, but all of City’s most dangerous sequences of play came down their left hand side. TAA was overwhelmed so badly that Madrid resorted to triple-teaming Doku to cover their right-back’s defensive weakness.

For Vincent Kompany, this could present an opportunity. Bayern Munich do not have dribblers like Doku on the team (unless you include Jamal Musiala) but a strong offensive pairing of Luis Diaz and Alphonso Davies would be very good at targeting Madrid’s vulnerable right. Now, if only Davies were fit…

The more problematic team won

It would have been better for Vincent Kompany if Manchester City had won. In a clash between master and apprentice, he could count on his superior squad quality and tactical cohesion to carry the day.

Madrid present FC Bayern with a potential headache. A team with an adamantine mentality, who will play their home game first, who are strong in midfield and love to counterattack. They don’t mind giving up possession and are demonstrably good at playing through a counterpress.

All those factors mean that the more problematic team won this game. Hopefully Manchester City mount a comeback at the Etihad, because the quarter-final matchup is looking rather scary at the moment.