Joao Pedro (£7.7m) and Bruno Fernandes (£10.1m) have both the form and fixture to continue outscoring Erling Haaland (£14.6m) with the captaincy in Gameweek 30 of Fantasy Premier League.

Both Chelsea‘s Joao Pedro and Manchester United star Fernandes have home matches this weekend, facing Aston Villa and Newcastle United respectively, whereas Manchester City and Haaland are away to West Ham United.

Who are the form players in Fantasy?

The recent change of head coaches at Chelsea and Man Utd from Gameweek 22 has played a big part in the recent success of Joao Pedro and Fernandes.

Indeed, they are the top-scoring players in Fantasy over those last eight Gameweeks, collecting 76 and 60 points respectively.

Joao Pedro has blanked only once under Liam Rosenior during that run – at leaders Arsenal – scoring eight goals and supplying a further six to collect 76 points.

Fernandes’ total of 60 points, meanwhile, is nearly twice the total of Haaland’s 32 across this period. 

Joao Pedro’s team-mate Cole Palmer (£10.6m) has also been revived by Rosenior’s appointment. He’s the third top-scoring player in this run, with his average of 8.0 points per match second only to the Brazilian forward.

 

As you can see from the table below, it’s Antoine Semenyo (£8.3m) who has been Man City’s top-scoring player in Fantasy since he joined ahead of Gameweek 22.

The Ghanaian has bettered Haaland by 20 points in this period and has played in a more advanced role as a forward in each of the last two Gameweeks, scoring on both occasions.

Semenyo’s 52 points has helped him keep pace with Arsenal’s Gabriel (£7.2m), the only defender among the top-scoring players from Gameweeks 22-29.

Top-scoring players, GW22-29

Player
Pts
Returns*
Blanks
Pts per match

Joao Pedro
76
14
1/8
9.5

Fernandes
60
8
2/8
7.5

Palmer
56
7
3/7
8.0

Summerville
54
5
3/8
6.8

Semenyo
52
6
3/8
6.5

Gabriel
52
6
2/9
5.8

Haaland
32
5
3/7
4.6

*Scroll across to see the full table on mobile. A return is a goal, assist or clean sheet

Who’s had the greatest attacking potential?

A look at each player’s involvement in big chances – or situations where a player is expected to score – helps to show why Joao Pedro and Fernandes have been such a big success.

Joao Pedro has had 14 big chances over the last eight Gameweeks, at least five more than any other player in Fantasy. His 25 shots in the box also rank top during that run.

Fernandes has also been involved in 14 big chances, although as the table below shows, it’s his creativity that stands out. He has had just three big chances of his own, while supplying his team-mates with 11 more of them.

Nonetheless, that total of 14 big-chance involvements is TWICE that of both Haaland and Semenyo, who are included purely as a comparison here as both would otherwise have failed to make the cut.

 

Liverpool‘s Hugo Ekitike (£9.2m), meanwhile, ranks second to Joao Pedro for both big chances and shots in the box over the last eight Gameweeks and also has to come into consideration at home to Tottenham Hotspur.

Palmer also features prominently again here, although it is worth noting that three of those big chances were penalties.

Goal threat stats, GW22-29

Player
Big-chance inv.
Big chances
BCC*
Shots in box

Joao Pedro
14
14
0
25

Fernandes
14
3
11
4

Ekitike
10
9
1
19

Palmer
10
8
2
12

Ouattara
10
5
5
9

Semenyo
7
5
2
13

Haaaland
7
5
2
11

*Scroll across to see the full table on mobile. BCC = Big chances created

Who’s facing the weakest defence?

An assessment of the defensive data over each club’s last four matches looks great news for Ekitike.

Spurs have conceded 11 goals and 15 big chances over their previous four, with both those numbers more than any other side.

Joao Pedro and Palmer backers will also take encouragement from the table below. Similarly to Spurs, Chelsea’s visitors Newcastle are without a clean sheet and have conceded 13 big chances across their last four matches, the same as Burnley and Wolverhampton Wanderers, for example.

Fernandes’ opponents Villa also feature here, and arrive at Old Trafford having lost 4-1 at home to Chelsea last time out.

The defensive data suggests a quartet of budget midfielders could also reward you with big hauls.

Brentford‘s Dango Ouattara (£6.0m) features in the table above, with an impressive 10 big-chance involvements. He hosts Wolves in the final match of the Gameweek on Monday evening.

Elsewhere, Crystal Palace‘s Ismaila Sarr (£6.3m) is at home to Leeds United, while Fulham‘s Harry Wilson (£6.0m) and AFC Bournemouth‘s Marcus Tavernier (£5.3m) visit Nottingham Forest and Burnley respectively.

Team defensive stats, last four matches

Club
Goals conc.
Clean sheets
Big chances conc.

Spurs 
11
0
15

Burnley
9
0
13

Newcastle
7
0
13

Wolves
4
1
13

Leeds 
5
0
11

Nott’m Forest
5
1
10

Aston Villa
7
1
9

Scroll across to see the full table on mobile

So, who is the best captain?

Fernandes, Joao Pedro and Ekitike all look likely to outscore Haaland, whose potential for goals has clearly been impacted by Man City’s recent switch to a 4-2-2-2 formation.

A delve into the trio’s home data shows why Fernandes should be entrusted with the captaincy.

Not only are his seven double-figure hauls more than the COMBINED six of Ekitike and Joao Pedro, the Man Utd star has only blanked in three of his 12 outings at Old Trafford this season.

Watch: FPL experts’ captain picks

Joao Pedro’s much-improved displays for Rosenior run the Portuguese close, though.

Indeed, as the table below shows, his 8.8 points per match (ppm) over his last four home matches is signficantly up from his season average of 5.0 points per home start.

It’s worth noting that Ekitike, like his two rivals, has also upped his home output, averaging 8.0 points per match across his last four outings at Anfield.

But whereas Fernandes and Joao Pedro have scored or assisted in each of their last four at home, Ekitike has blanked twice. Although the Frenchman can offer a similar upside, he carries the greatest degree of risk among the three.

Home form compared

Player
PPM (last four home games)*
PPS (season)*
Double-digit hauls
Blanks (season)

Fernandes
10.8
7.6
7
3/12

Joao Pedro
8.8
5.0
2
6/12

Ekitike
8.0
6.8
4
5/11

*Scroll across to see the full table on mobile. PPM = Points per match. PPS = Points per start