Strait of Hormuz ‘effectively closed’.
Fourthly, there is the economic cost to consider. Iran declared that the Strait of Hormuz was ‘effectively closed’. Although the Strait has not been completely closed, major oil companies have suspended shipments and tankers have changed course. Disruption to this narrow strait, through which approximately 20 million barrels of crude oil per day — one-fifth of the global supply — pass, has led to sharp price increases in the markets. The issue that is most sensitive to Trump’s own voter base is the cost of living, and the Iran operation directly triggers this sensitivity.
Fifthly, capacity disclosure. Every large-scale operation reveals U.S. military architecture, intelligence methods, signals intelligence capabilities and targeting doctrine. Since the Iraq War of 2003, Beijing and Moscow have carefully studied every U.S. operation and adapted their own defence planning accordingly. It is clear, therefore, how important a source of data this operation is for China’s regional and global military planning.
Sixthly, the transfer of legitimacy. While the U.S. and Israel may believe that killing Khamenei would destroy the symbolic centre of the regime, they overlook the most fundamental principle of Shia political theology. At the heart of Shia collective memory lies the Karbala paradigm. According to this, the ‘innocent and oppressed’ imam is martyred by the ‘oppressor’. This narrative has shaped social memory for 1,400 years, and eleven of the twelve Imams are remembered as ‘oppressed martyrs’.
Khamenei’s assassination by an enemy attack, especially during Ramadan, would fit this ancient paradigm perfectly without the regime’s propaganda apparatus needing to invent anything. Indeed, Iran’s modern history confirms this pattern. For example, Prime Minister Mossadegh, who was overthrown in a CIA-MI6-backed coup in 1953, was a secular nationalist with no ideological affinity to Khamenei. Yet his overthrow by foreign intervention transformed him into an inexhaustible source of ‘victimhood capital’ in Iran’s collective memory. This capital came into play 26 years later, providing legitimacy to the 1979 Revolution. While Washington may believe that removing Khamenei would pave the way for regime change, the possibility that it would create a martyred leader symbolising resistance against imperialism is at least as likely.