Supporters of Angela Rayner say she and other rebel Labour MPs will use analysis that shows the government’s immigration reforms will increase child poverty to further their opposition to the plans.
Independent research has estimated that the policy to double the time it takes for migrants to qualify for settlement in the UK from five to ten years will prolong poverty for between 60,000 and 90,000 children of foreign workers by 2029.
A report by the Institute for Public Policy Research (IPPR) and Landman Economics, shared with The Times, estimates that half of all children with parents in the UK on work visas could be living in poverty by that year.
This is because migrant families can only claim benefits including child benefit and in-work elements of universal credit after obtaining indefinite leave to remain.
Supporters of the former deputy prime minister, who branded the policy “un-British” this week, said she would use the analysis to further her opposition to the plans.
An ally pointed to comments she made last year describing Labour’s pledge to reduce child poverty as the party’s “moral mission”.
Other Labour MPs said the analysis exposed why Sir Keir Starmer’s plans to apply the new settlement rules to 1.6 million migrants who arrived in the UK since 2021 were “fundamentally flawed” because it would directly conflict with the government’s separate pledge to reduce child poverty. The government published a strategy in December to lift 550,000 children out of poverty by 2030.
Sir Keir Starmer on ThursdayTOLGA AKMEN/EPA
More than a hundred MPs have privately urged Shabana Mahmood, the home secretary, to rethink plans to apply the strict settlement rules to migrants already in the UK.
The Home Office said the changes to settlement rules do not need a vote in parliament and can be passed through immigration rule changes.
However, Stella Creasy, the Labour MP for Walthamstow, said she and other rebels are planning to force a symbolic vote in the House of Commons in order to expose the scale of opposition to the plans on the Labour benches.
Downing Street has signalled that it could water down the plans by offering “transitional” measures to soften the impact for those already in the UK. Concessions being considered include exempting public sector workers, reducing the ten-year time frame and excluding those who are on the brink of qualifying for settled status this year, for example, to avoid a cliff-edge scenario where individuals are suddenly forced to wait another five years.
However, Tony Vaughan, the Labour MP leading the rebellion against the plans, said the entire policy must be scrapped.
He told The Times: “The IPPR report dismantles the rationale for this earned settlement policy.
“It shows that these proposals will be a fiscal cost to the UK for decades, will directly undermine the government’s child poverty strategy and starve our society and economy of the skills we need to fulfil the government’s important ambitions on industrial strategy, housebuilding, manufacturing and in health and social care. It would also undermine community cohesion and integration, weakening the bonds that hold our society together.
“This is not a policy that can be trimmed around the edges. It is fundamentally flawed and should be abandoned.”
Creasy accused the “Blue Labour” faction of the party — a group of socially conservative MPs who Mahmood has been associated with — of driving up child poverty.
She said: “This reinforces that none of these changes are about border control or immigration — they’re about people already living here in our communities, paying taxes, working hard and struggling with the cost of living just like everyone is.
Shabana MahmoodLEON NEAL/GETTY IMAGES
“Increasing child poverty and draining valuable resources from the economy are both things that nobody wants to see happen.
“Those seeking [indefinite leave to remain] contribute to our economy because they have come here to do a job and they’ve got a visa because there’s a job that we want them to do.
“Ending child poverty and unlocking their potential is the purpose of a true Labour government. Only a Blue Labour government would increase child poverty.”
Andy McDonald, the Labour MP for Middlesbrough & Thornaby East, said: “The problem here is that too many workers, whether immigrant or otherwise, in many cases doing tough and challenging jobs, are simply not paid enough and still need state support to try and make ends meet.
“That’s what we should be focusing on and not making the lives of migrant workers, who contribute to our economy, more difficult than they are already.
“Bearing down on child poverty is the mission of every Labour government but policies that inadvertently put more children into poverty have to be reconsidered and reversed.
“Extending settlement entitlement from five to ten years is a bad policy in itself, but this report highlights how disastrous it would be against the stated objective of reducing child poverty.”
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The IPPR report, which was commissioned by the No Recourse to Public Funds Partnership, which supports vulnerable migrants who do not have access to benefits, estimates that the policy to double the qualifying period for settlement will push more than 300,000 children currently living in the UK on to a longer route to settlement.
Minnie Rahman, the chief executive of the migrant charity Praxis, said: “There can be no justification for immigration policy changes that lock tens of thousands more children into poverty, especially from a government allegedly committed to reducing poverty for all children.”