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Celtic’s defeat at Dundee United has damaged their title chances as information provided from Football Meets Data delivers a statistical bombshell for the current Scottish champions.
The biggest takeaway is a seismic shift in momentum, especially when prior to Celtic’s defeat at Dundee United, the Hoops were firm title favorites.
However, the 2-0 Tannadice defeat has caused a dramatic 19% drop in their projected win probability, as well as Celtic dropping to third place in the title race, as the tweet from Football Meets Data lays out just how damaging the Tayside collapse is to Martin O’Neill’s title hopes.
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Photos by Ian MacNicol/Getty Images Celtic drop to third as data reveals title chances are obliterated
Not only have Celtic dropped to third place in the Scottish Premiership table, the Parkhead club’s percentage chances of actually retaining the title have plummeted.
🟢⚪️ Celtic lose at Dundee Utd and fall from projected 1st to projected 3rd!
🤎 Hearts add +10% to 🏆 once again return to the position of #1 favorites!
🏆 To win 🏴 Premiership:
42% 🏴 Hearts (📈 +10%)
38% 🏴 Rangers (📈 +9%)
20% 🏴 Celtic (📉 -19%)
🏴 Premiership – MD31… pic.twitter.com/IKE9EhwbJj
— Football Meets Data (@fmeetsdata) March 22, 2026
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According to the latest data projections, Celtic have plummeted from 1st to 3rd favorites to retain their crown.
Their title win probability now sits at just 20%, a staggering decline from their previous position. Celtic’s damaging defeat at Tannadice has essentially handed the league to either Hearts or Rangers.
The new title frontrunners after Celtic’s collapse at Dundee United
The tweet highlights Hearts as the main beneficiaries of Celtic’s slip-up. With a 10% surge in their projections, Hearts have reclaimed the number one favourites spot with a 42% probability of winning the SPFL.
This marks a significant narrative shift in Scottish football, placing a team outside of Celtic and Rangers at the top of the data-driven projections.
Rangers have also benefitted on the weekend’s results, seeing their title chances rise by 9% to a total of 38%, placing them comfortably ahead of Celtic as the second-most likely champions.
League standings context after Celtic, Rangers and Hearts results
The data reflects the fallout from matchday 31, as the international break kicks in. The projected standings now show a complete reshuffling of the top three:
Hearts: 42% (Projected 1st)Rangers: 38% (Projected 2nd)Celtic: 20% (Projected 3rd)
For Celtic, the numbers suggest that their grip on the trophy is slipping fast.
What was once a three-horse race has seen the Hoops fall to the back of the pack, leaving them with a mountain to climb in the remaining fixtures of 2026, especially after the top-six split.
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