“Reaching an agreement with the Iranians now would be a clear Iranian victory,” the source said, adding it could help the regime survive and potentially include sanctions relief and reconstruction assistance.
Strategic gains
The report said that while Netanyahu’s government has not abandoned hopes of toppling Iran’s government, other officials and commentators acknowledge that government change during wartime “is nearly impossible,” as civilians are unlikely to protest under heavy US and Israeli bombardment.
Instead, Israel aims to weaken the Iranian government to the point where it cannot recover, encouraging future mass protests, the report said, adding that Israel is using this argument to persuade Washington to continue the war.
To that end, the report said, Israel has intensified strikes on strategic industries, including steel production, recently targeting two major steel plants in Khuzestan near Ahvaz and Mobarakeh in Isfahan, while refraining, at Trump’s request, from striking Iran’s oil and gas sector.
“Attacks have destroyed between 3 percent and 4 percent of Iran’s GDP, significantly undermining its ability to recover,” an unnamed senior Israeli intelligence official said.
“These facilities produce essential construction materials, and the longer the attacks continue, the more time and external support Iran will need to rebuild,” the official added.
The report added that Israel is also considering broader regional strategic gains from the war.
It cited an unnamed senior Israeli diplomatic official as saying that “Iran’s neighbours are keen to end the war without toppling the regime.”
“We are coordinating with them,” he added, without naming the countries.
“These countries are exerting strong pressure on Washington not to stop halfway,” the source said, warning they fear facing “a more radical, wounded, and vengeful Iran” if the conflict ends prematurely.
The US and Israel have maintained an air offensive on Iran since Feb. 28, killing so far over 1,340 people, including then-Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.
Iran has retaliated with drone and missile strikes targeting Israel, along with Jordan, Iraq, and Gulf countries hosting US military assets, causing casualties and damage to infrastructure while disrupting global markets and aviation.
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