By William Watts

Trump has threatened sweeping secondary tariffs designed to punish any country still trading with Russia if there’s no cease-fire agreement by Friday

The White House is insisting that any meeting between Russian President Vladimir Putin (right) and U.S. President Donald Trump can occur only after Putin meets with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky (left), according to news reports.

Investors may soon find out just how willing President Donald Trump is to punish Russia in the face of a potential jump in oil prices, as a Friday deadline set by the White House for a cease-fire with Ukraine looms over the market.

“It is not certain whether President Trump will hit Russia with new sanctions on Friday as scheduled, assuming no deal gets done in the next few hours, or if Trump will punish the Russians with maximum penalties but give them a deal that allows three weeks of wiggle room,” as he did when he slapped India with an additional levy that takes its tariff rate to 50% earlier this week, said Robert Yawger, commodity specialist at Mizuho Securities, in a Thursday note.

Oil traders reacted Thursday to headlines around talks. Crude fell after the Kremlin said that Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin would meet in the coming days and that work on a summit was under way.

Oil later bounced after ABC News reported that the White House had pushed back on the Kremlin’s claims, citing a White House official who said no location for a meeting had been set and that Putin must agree to meet with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky as a precondition for a meeting with Trump.

Crude prices ultimately ended Thursday near session lows and at their weakest in over two months, with West Texas Intermediate crude for October delivery (CL.1) finishing the session down 47 cents, or 0.7%, at $63.88 a barrel. October Brent crude (BRN00), the global benchmark, fell 46 cents, or 0.7%, to end at $66.43 a barrel. Both WTI and Brent saw their lowest finishes since June 5.

Trump has threatened sweeping secondary tariffs designed to punish any country still trading with Russia if there’s no cease-fire agreement by Friday. India was the first to feel the sting of such sanctions earlier this week over its purchases of Russian crude.

“We remain skeptical about whether Moscow will offer serious concessions that will change the direction of the war, but could envision that President Putin makes a more symbolic offer that provides scope for the White House to walk back the secondary tariffs,” said Helima Croft, head of global commodity strategy at RBC Capital Markets, in a note on Wednesday.

India has condemned the secondary tariffs, vowing to protect its own energy security. Croft noted that part of India’s anger likely stems from the fact that a U.S.-led initiative to impose price caps on Russian crude was designed specifically to allow India to absorb Russian barrels locked out of Europe due to European Union sanctions on Moscow.

“India emerged as a principal release valve market by design, not in violation of U.S. policy, with a clear aim of keeping the oil market well supplied and prices contained,” she wrote.

The key question for the market is how far Trump is willing to go to punish Russia if the deadline isn’t met.

“What has been unclear is whether the White House is willing to contend with a tighter oil market and a near-term jump in prices in pursuit of reducing the Russian war machine ATM,” Croft said.

The decision to hit India with a steeper tariff showed the White House was increasing the pressure, but Friday’s decision may provide more concrete signals about “how much pressure the U.S. is prepared to deploy and the cost it is willing to endure” to bring the war to an end, she said.

-William Watts

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08-07-25 1539ET

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