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Deadly strikes on civilian locations, including a primary school in Minab and a sports hall in Lamerd, have come to symbolize the human cost of the United States and Israel’s war against Iran. But such cases of civilian sites struck without a clear military objective do not, so far, define the broader pattern of the US-Israeli campaign.
Amid information restrictions, censorship, limited independent reporting, and the regime’s efforts to control the narrative of the war, a full picture remains difficult to establish. Even so, ACLED data suggest that civilian harm has largely remained clustered around US-Israeli strikes on military, security, and state-linked sites, rather than indiscriminate bombardment across urban neighborhoods.
A US ground assault on Kharg Island or strikes on critical infrastructure would push the war into a new phase, potentially turning what has so far been a relatively localized pattern of civilian harm into a broader and more sustained threat. But for the period of 28 February to 31 March, ACLED has identified three main patterns affecting civilians and civilian spaces including residences and medical facilities: direct strikes on repurposed or dual-use civilian sites, targeted assassinations in residential buildings, and, most commonly, blast-related harm to civilians or significant damage to civilian structures from strikes on state and security sites embedded in densely populated areas.
Strikes on alleged dual-use sites
In nearly 40 cases, the US and Israel have struck civilian structures directly, either because Iranian security forces had temporarily repurposed them or because they served dual civilian-military functions. Sports complexes are one example. With dozens of barracks and garrisons hit since the start of the war, authorities have reportedly become more reliant on civilian infrastructure for shelter, regrouping, and possibly command, leaving some of these sites vulnerable to attack.
Other cases involve sites that Israel or the US have claimed served a dual-use role, including university research facilities, companies, and industrial areas where civilian production may overlap with state security functions. These may include weapons-engineering research or the production, storage, or development of components, materials, or technologies used in missile, drone, air-defense, or related programs. The Israel Defense Forces have also struck other manufacturing sites, including two of Iran’s largest steel factories, citing their partial ownership by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.