Amna Nawaz:
We return to the war now in the Middle East, the blocking of the Strait of Hormuz, and reaction to President Trump’s announcement that the attacks will go on two to three weeks more.
For that, we turn to Robin Niblett, a distinguished fellow and former director at Chatham House. That’s a global policy think tank. And Firas Maksad is managing director of the Middle East and North Africa practice at the Eurasia Group. It’s an international consulting firm.
Welcome to you both.
And, Firas, I will begin with you, because clearly all nations are not viewing the war in Iran and its impacts the same. So let’s begin with the regional countries in the Gulf. How are they looking at the U.S. and Israeli war in Iran? And what do they want to see happen now?
Firas Maksad, Eurasia Group:
Well, Amna, it’s not a uniform view across the Arabian Gulf. These countries have different interests. They have different positions from Israel. And they have been also impacted in different ways as a result of this war.
I think it’s important to point out that most of these countries prefer diplomacy, rather than war, at a time when it was actually Israel that was very much lobbying the president of the United States to conduct this military operation.
That view, however, began to change as Iran very much attacked these countries, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain, and others. And the private message to the president increasingly became, go on. We’re already taking the hit, finish the job, don’t leave us with an Iran that’s standing 10 feet tall, having taken on the United States and Israel, survived the regime decapitation and continues to fire ballistic missiles.
As of late, however, that message is again changing, these countries now increasingly worried that, as President Trump in the two weeks ahead sends more forces to the region, promises and threatens escalation, they, their critical infrastructure, the energy, the power plants, and the desalination plants might very be very much in the bullseye. So they’re very concerned at this point.
Amna Nawaz:
Robin Niblett, meanwhile, we know the European allies never wanted the U.S. to withdraw from that raw nuclear deal in the first place, never wanted this war to begin.
And you just heard President Trump last night call upon them, as nations that depend on the oil and liquefied natural gas that goes through the Strait of Hormuz, to act, to, in his words, grab it and to cherish it.
How is that message going down with European allies today?
Robin Niblett, Chatham House:
Not well, like the whole war itself.
I think there’s a view expressed by just about every European leader that this was a war that was not well-planned, doesn’t have clear objectives, a war in which the Europeans were not consulted, but to the extent that even the British weren’t prepared at the beginning to be able to allow bases to be used for the initial assault, something that President Trump has called out very harshly, as you know.
You got to remember this comes on the back of the Europeans, the Greenland shock threats to sovereignty in Europe, which is quite a shocking element for them to be coping with as well, a trade war, unpredictable positions on Ukraine.
I think, for most European leaders, they have realized that, while they have been sort of buying time on Ukraine, trying to sort of buy time and simply try to jolly President Trump along, on Iran, it is the wrong approach to take.
So you have seen some really clear language from all the top leaders in Europe, from Keir Starmer, from Macron, even from Germany’s Chancellor Merz recently, saying that this is — this war is not being thought through, we’re not going to be involved. Even Giorgia Meloni in Italy, she has also been critical recently of a badly thought through war that’s against international law.
So how’s it seen? Not well, and also a sense that we’re going to take the hit economically. As you know, we don’t get much oil from the Gulf anymore. We do get some important liquefied natural gas and our gas prices are already high because of the war against Ukraine by Russia.
So we know we’re going to take more of the hit. So then, for President Trump to kind of do the, we broke it, you own it, as people have described it, is seen as galling, to put it mildly.
Amna Nawaz:
Firas, this focus by the president on reopening the strait and the push for other nations to take control and act to do it, how are Gulf nations looking at that effort?
Firas Maksad:
Well, Amna, that is a point of grave concern for them.
There are some nations in the Gulf that are entirely dependent on exporting through that narrow body of water. Now, there are others that don’t, that have work-arounds. Saudi Arabia has an east-west pipeline that allows it to channel quite a bit of its oil to the Red Sea. The UAE also has a work-around that channels oil, 1.4 million barrels a day.
But for most of these countries, the strait is the lifeline. And the idea that Iran might control it after all this is said and done or that Iran might even charge some kind of a toll system, a toll regime is something that’s very concerning.
I think it’s very important for us to also remember that the Red Sea, the Bab-el-Mandeb strait, that — where Yemen and the Houthis are, can also become contested if the Houthis choose to attack the Saudi pipeline or to fire at ships there.
So it’s an overall picture that is very much clouded. And the United States and its president essentially devolving responsibilities to other is not what these countries want to hear right now.
Amna Nawaz:
Robin, in the minute or so we have left, you have mentioned Mr. Trump’s repeated threats to leave NATO. And after European allies rebuffed his efforts to help reopen the strait last month, he threatened to stop sending weapons to Ukraine.
How are those threats, are those threats influencing how European leaders are viewing this moment and what they might do?
Robin Niblett:
Well, I think, obviously, it’s a deep source of concern.
Mark Rutte, the secretary-general of NATO, convened a private call with some of the main European leaders, saying, look, this is serious. And it’s serious especially for military support to Ukraine. Europeans now pay for that military support for Ukraine, but we need to be able to buy a lot of it from America. We don’t have the equipment ourselves.
So you saw a lot of these moves to say that we will provide some type of maritime reassurance force after there’s a cease-fire. That followed a request from Mark Rutte to try to tone it down over NATO.
I think, in the long term, however, Europeans believe they just need to get through the next three years. They reckon that NATO will survive if we can get beyond the Donald Trump presidency. And that’s what they’re focused on right now is surviving these next three years.
Amna Nawaz:
All right, that is Robin Niblett and Firas Maksad joining us tonight.
Gentlemen, thank you both for your time and insights. Appreciate it.
Firas Maksad:
Thank you.
Robin Niblett:
Thank you.