As President Donald Trump’s time for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz narrows, JPMorgan has a list of trades to make depending on the outcome. Trump’s deadline of 8 p.m. ET on Tuesday night for the U.S. and Iran to set a deal on reopening the Straight of Hormuz is fast approaching, and the president has threatened to destroy Iran’s power plants and bridges if a deal isn’t reached. But as of Tuesday morning, the possibility of reaching a deal looked less and less likely , with U.S. intentions open to interpretation. “A whole civilization will die tonight, never to be brought back again. I don’t want that to happen, but it probably will,” the president wrote in a Truth Social post . “However, now that we have Complete and Total Regime Change, where different, smarter, and less radicalized minds prevail, maybe something revolutionarily wonderful can happen, WHO KNOWS? We will find out tonight, one of the most important moments in the long and complex history of the World.” As the U.S. deadline approaches, the JPMorgan trading desk outlined several scenarios, analyzing how each potential outcome might affect the stock market. The JPMorgan traders said the four-day rally in stocks, from last Tuesday through Monday, may have reflected the view that a deal is more likely than not, or at least that military action won’t destroy energy or water infrastructure throughout the Persian Gulf. “It does not appear that many want to take a swing ahead of tonight’s press conference but instead [are] setting up their ‘shopping lists’ to play the outcomes after tonight, in what feels like a binary outcome,” the JPMorgan trading desk wrote. “A bullish outcome would be anything that pivots away from increased violence and [a] bearish outcome would involve targeting civilian infra[structure].” The following are the bank’s scenarios for Tuesday’s deadline outcomes, alongside the stocks that would rally in each case. Ceasefire buy list In the case of a ceasefire, stocks would most likely move back to the trades that worked in early 2026, before the war began, the JPMorgan traders wrote. The Russell 2000 would lead, followed by the Nasdaq-100 , and then the S & P 500 . The bank also sees technology and cyclical stocks outperforming. “Within Cyclicals, Consumer plays represent the best near-term upside, specifically discretionary plays like homebuilders and retailers. Financials are a segment that could see a Trump deal/pivot ignite a multi-week rally given what would be an improving macro background, expected strong earnings, a bull steepening yield curve and light positioning,” JPMorgan wrote. Precious metals would also likely see a strong rebound if the the dollar weakened. Country-wise, the trading desk expects all markets to rally but prefers emerging markets over developed economies. Specifically, the Asia Pacific region should lead, followed by Latin America, the European Union and the U.S. No ceasefire buy list If a deal doesn’t materialize and civilian infrastructure is attacked, energy assets would rally. The trading desk sees oil futures quickly breaching the $125 per barrel level and then $150. “Defense companies (and its supply chain) and fertilizers also should act well in this scenario; this type of move by the U.S. may improve the probability of both the $200 [billion] emergency funding request as well as the $1.5 [trillion] defense budget,” the desk wrote. In this scenario, JPMorgan prefers large-cap stocks, developed markets and U.S. assets. “Puke everything” trade In a very bearish scenario, the JPMorgan trading desk foresees a “Puke Everything” trade involving “indiscriminate selling.”
