Welcome to the Daily News Brief, CFR’s flagship morning newsletter summarizing the top global news and analysis of the day. 

Top of the Agenda

The United States, Israel, and Iran announced a two-week ceasefire yesterday after nearly forty days of fighting. Pakistan helped mediate the ceasefire, which includes a plan to reopen the Strait of Hormuz to shipping traffic. Both the United States and Iran hailed the step as a victory. Yet disagreements remain, as Israel refuted Pakistan’s claim that Lebanon was included in the agreement. U.S. Vice President JD Vance called the truce “fragile” today as some attacks continued in the region—while leaders from China, Europe, and Africa praised the announcement. Whether the temporary ceasefire will lead to a lasting peace settlement remains to be seen. Pakistan invited the United States and Iran to begin negotiations on Friday in Islamabad.

Victory lap. “A big day for World Peace!” U.S. President Donald Trump proclaimed this morning. Trump said last night that Washington had “already met and exceeded all military objectives” in the war and that a ten-point proposal from Iran was a workable starting point for negotiations. Iranian state media published a version of that proposal, though a White House social media account disputed reporting on the proposal. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said passage through the Strait of Hormuz during the truce will be ensured in conjunction with the Iranian military. The United States “will be helping with the traffic buildup” in the vital waterway, Trump said. As of this morning, traffic through the strait had not increased on a large scale. In additional social media posts, Trump said Washington would work with Tehran to “dig up and remove” nuclear particles and discuss tariff and sanctions relief; he also threatened 50 percent tariffs on countries supplying Iran with weapons.

On the battlefield. Despite the agreement, an Iranian oil refinery was struck in the hours after the truce announcement, and Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates also reported airstrikes. In Lebanon, Hezbollah paused its attacks on Israel, unnamed sources close to the group told Reuters, though Israel’s military said it struck one hundred targets across Lebanon today. Thousands of U.S. troops remain deployed in the region, and U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Dan Caine today said U.S. forces “stand ready, if ordered or called upon, to resume combat operations.”

Market moves. Oil futures dropped and stock markets rose in response to the ceasefire announcement. Hours before the truce—when Trump’s threat of civilizational destruction still hung in the air—a key oil benchmark had surged to its highest level on record. Yet the head of the International Air Transport Association warned today that it could take months to reverse the war’s impact on jet fuel supply even if the Strait of Hormuz is reopened.

“This is an agreement to begin to talk…A ceasefire is better than no ceasefire. It’s good for the bombing to stop. It’s good for the Strait of Hormuz to be reopened, assuming that the Iranians actually follow through on that, but this is really just the beginning of a conversation about these fundamental issues where I think the U.S. and Iran are in really quite different positions.”

Across the Globe

U.S. journalist freed in Iraq. Iraqi militia Kataib Hezbollah freed U.S. journalist Shelly Kittleson after abducting her a week ago, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio announced yesterday. He thanked multiple U.S. agencies as well as Iraq for helping secure her release. Unnamed Iraqi security officials told multiple news outlets that Kittleson was freed in a prisoner swap. 

Trump, Vance campaign for Orbán. Trump and Vance endorsed Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán during Vance’s trip to Budapest yesterday, with Vance putting Trump on speakerphone at an Orbán rally. “I’m a big fan of Viktor. I’m with him all the way,” Trump told the crowd. Orbán’s far-right party is trailing behind its main center-right opponent in polls ahead of this weekend’s parliamentary election. 

French couple allowed to leave Iran. Two French citizens arrested in Iran almost four years ago on espionage charges were allowed to leave the country yesterday, President Emmanuel Macron announced. They were freed from Iran’s Evin Prison in late 2025 and had since been under house arrest at the French consulate. Paris maintained that the charges were baseless. Macron thanked Oman for efforts to mediate. 

Indian trade delegation in China. Envoys from eight Indian companies traveled to China earlier this month on the first Indian trade mission to the country in five years, the head of an Indian trade group told CNBC. A spokesperson for the Chinese embassy in India described the trip as part of a “thaw” between the two countries. Bilateral relations have improved from a 2020 low that included border clashes; an Indian move last month also eased restrictions on Chinese investments.

Vietnam’s new president. Vietnam’s legislature elected Communist Party leader To Lam as the country’s president yesterday. The selection makes him the one-party nation’s most powerful leader in decades. Lam has maintained positive relations with both China and the United States and spearheaded economic reforms aimed at ensuring Vietnam becomes an upper-income country in the next twenty years. 

Crisis-cushioning fund. The African Export-Import Bank announced yesterday it had approved $10 billion in funds to help African and Caribbean nations and companies deal with the economic fallout of the Iran war. The fund is designed to help finance fuel, food, and pharmaceutical imports.

Australian war crimes charges. Australia’s federal police yesterday charged a decorated soldier with five counts of war crimes over allegations he killed unarmed civilians during the war in Afghanistan. Multiple media outlets identified the man as Ben Roberts-Smith; he has in the past denied any wrongdoing during his service. Roberts-Smith previously lost a defamation lawsuit against news organizations that reported allegations related to his war conduct. 

U.S.-Mexico-Canada talks. Ongoing negotiations on rebalancing the trade agreement between the three countries are likely to run past their original July 1 deadline, U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said yesterday. While Trump has floated the idea of exiting the agreement, Greer said yesterday that its main provisions function well and suggested that the United States favors tweaks rather than an exit.

What’s Next

Today, NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte is visiting Washington.Today, Australia’s defense minister is visiting Tokyo.Tomorrow, Canada’s ruling Liberal Party begins its first national convention since 2023.