Toronto real estate might be in a glut, but that didn’t stop buyers from paying more last month. Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB) data shows prices climbed in March. Despite another monthly uptick, sales remain weak, and inventory continues to be elevated, as bearish conditions persist for the market.
Toronto Real Estate Prices Rise For A Second Consecutive Month
The price of a typical home across Greater Toronto.
Source: CREA; TRREB; Better Dwelling.
Toronto real estate prices climbed 0.3% (+$3.0k) to $941,800 in March. It marked the second consecutive month of growth, though smaller than the previous month’s gain, confirming the recovery remains anemic.
Toronto Real Estate Price Growth Remains In Bearish Territory
The annual rate of change for a composite benchmark home across Greater Toronto.
Source: CREA; TRREB; Better Dwelling.
The annual growth rate also provided little assurance that the market is turning the corner. Prices came in 7.4% (-$75.5k) lower than last year, a marginal improvement from the previous month.
Toronto Real Estate Sales Climb But Market Remains “Oversupplied”
Greater Toronto existing home sales vs new listings, March.
Source: CREA; TRREB; Better Dwelling.
The board reported 5,039 homes were sold in March, up 1.7% from last year—though most of that growth is driven by TRREB revising last year’s total downward by 55 sales. Even with a slight improvement, it was still the second-weakest March in at least 15 years, trailing only last year.
Inventory is one area where the market genuinely tightened. There were 14,442 new listings last month, 16.7% lower than last year and in line with March 2019 volumes. Even with the pullback in new listings, weak sales have left supply heavily outpacing demand. The sales-to-new-listings ratio (SNLR) came in at just 34.9% in March, considered a buyer’s market where prices are expected to fall.
The pullback in sellers may be partially blamed on the unusual volume of unsold inventory already on the market. There were 21,596 active listings in March, 8.0% lower than last year but still among the most ever reported for the month. Aside from last year, no March has reported this much active inventory in at least 26 years.
While March traditionally kicks off the spring inventory climb, carrying this much active inventory this early is highly unusual. The total was more than double the 2021-2023 lows for the month and 38.6% above 2019.
A slight bump in sales and prices may look like a turning point, but historical standards show a market still struggling to tame its excess supply. Add to that a wall of purpose-built rentals and unsold new construction inventory lingering, and spring is going to need to see an unusually large surge in activity to counter the headwinds.
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