Photo: Joe Raedle/Getty Images
Right now, the path to war or peace in the Middle East is obscured by the conflicting positions of the Trump administration, its Israeli allies, its Iranian adversaries, and various intermediaries. One thing that is very clear, however, is that Israel is placing a fragile cease-fire under intense strain thanks to its determination to crush Hezbollah while battering and dominating Lebanon. There are also persistent reports that Bibi Netanyahu and his government are not inclined to accept any enduring peace agreement with Iran as it is currently constituted and are relatively indifferent to the oil-market dynamics on which Donald Trump is disproportionately focused. More generally, Israel is vulnerable to growing perceptions in the United States that it pulled Trump into this unpopular war and is now impeding his efforts to get out of it.
With that dynamic in mind, new data from Pew about Americans’ steadily eroding sense of solidarity with Israel is worth a long look. As of late March, even before this latest chaotic turn in Middle Eastern events, what used to be strong bipartisan support for Israel is gone, and it’s not just a matter of Democrats becoming alienated by Netanyahu and his policies toward Gaza, Lebanon, and Iran. Republicans — and particularly younger Republicans — are cooling toward Israel as well:
More Republicans and Republican leaners have a favorable than unfavorable view of Israel (58% vs. 41%). Still, the share of Republicans with a negative view has ticked up since last year, driven by those under 50. Today, 57% of Republicans ages 18 to 49 have an unfavorable opinion of Israel, up from 50% last year.
Similarly, Pew finds that 58 percent of Republicans under the age of 50 have little or no confidence in Netanyahu to “do the right thing regarding world affairs.” Twenty-seven percent of them have “none at all.”
Less surprisingly, negative perceptions of Israel and its leadership have become overwhelmingly prevalent among Democrats, with younger age cohorts again leading the way:
Eight-in-ten Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents currently have an unfavorable view of Israel, up from 69% last year and 53% in 2022. Democrats under 50 are slightly more likely than older Democrats to say they have a very unfavorable view of Israel (47% vs. 39%) …
As has been the case in recent years, a sizable majority of Democrats (76%) lack confidence in the Israeli prime minister — and this is up 6 points since last year. Around half of Democrats (52%) now say they have no confidence at all in Netanyahu, up from 37% last year. This includes around half of Democrats in every age group.
Pennsylvania senator John Fetterman displayed his estrangement from his party in his reaction to this Pew data — and in where he chose to express it, per The Hill:
“That’s insane. You know, that’s our special ally,” the Democratic senator told Fox News’s Jesse Watters on Thursday evening …
“I think more Democrats should listen to me and say be on the right side of history and holding Iran accountable, and if you have to pick a side, pick our side, pick civilization, pick Israel,” Fetterman said.
Notwithstanding Fetterman’s objections, American disenchantment is not likely to abate if the horrific images from Gaza that so powerfully undermined public support for Israel are supplemented by new horrific images from Lebanon — alongside continuing settler outrages in the West Bank and a growing sense that Trump is a junior partner in the alliance with Netanyahu. Until very recently, it was possible to argue that Israel was simply trading its old hold on majority sentiment in both major U.S. political parties for a risky but firm new alignment with the GOP. That’s looking more and more like a shaky bet.
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