TORONTO — In the immediate aftermath of their regular-season finale, the Raptors were glued to the TV screen.
They had just punched their ticket to the playoffs for the first time in four years. That part was expected, when all they needed was a win over the lottery-bound Brooklyn Nets – the spread was 23.5 points and they won by 35. The surprise came later, as the healthy and motivated Orlando Magic began to unravel against a Boston Celtics team that had seeding locked up and was resting its stars.
If Orlando had won, as anticipated, Toronto would have finish sixth and faced the New York Knicks in the opening round. But with Boston’s comeback victory, one of the day’s unlikeliest scenarios came to pass: the Raptors jumped up to fifth and drew the Cleveland Cavaliers.
Based on the roars emanating from the home locker room at Scotiabank Arena, or the neighbouring film room, where team staff and members of the front office watched the end of the game, there was a rooting interest.
Maybe they preferred the opponent they went 3-0 against during the regular season, as opposed to the one that swept them in five games. Maybe they wanted the higher seed. Maybe they’re just fans of Luka Garza. Any or all the above would be completely reasonable.
“I didn’t care,” said RJ Barrett, who spent his first four and a half seasons playing in New York. “I’d have been completely fine playing the Knicks.
“I think for the young guys, it’s probably better to play in Cleveland than Madison Square Garden for their first time [in the playoffs].”
For the league’s youngest playoff team (with an average age of 24.8, and that’s including the 39-year-old Garrett Temple) that’s making its long-awaited return to the postseason, this is probably the best-case scenario.
Indeed, the Knicks would’ve been a nightmare matchup, and not just because they’ve won the previous 13 meetings between the two teams by an average margin of 17.4 points. New York features a pair of all-stars at the Raptors’ most vulnerable positions – point guard and centre – and a collection of defensive-minded wings who could’ve presented a challenge for their best players.
Meanwhile, the Cavs are the only top-10 team that Toronto had a winning record against this season. They’re loaded at guard and in the front court, but are thin on the wing, which is where the Raptors’ three leading scorers reside. Only two NBA teams (Boston and Oklahoma City) have won more regular-season games over the last four years, but Cleveland has failed to advance past the second round during that span, and their prized trade-deadline acquisition isn’t exactly known for his playoff prowess either.
That would be the optimistic view for the Raptors, but not so fast. All three meetings with Cleveland came before December. Since their underwhelming start to the campaign, the Cavs have added an 11-time all-star and future hall-of-famer in James Harden, fortified their depth, and finished with the league’s fourth-best record over the final 40 games.
Say what you will about the quality of their playoff experience, but they’ve got plenty of it. Their starting five has appeared in 302 career playoff games and won 23 postseason series. Their nine-man rotation has accumulated 466 games and 40 series wins. On the other end of the spectrum, Toronto’s nine-man rotation has a grand total of 65 playoff games and four series wins under its belt. Harden more than doubles that himself (173 games, 15 series wins).
Scottie Barnes hasn’t been to the playoffs since his rookie season, when he injured his ankle in the first game against Philadelphia, missed the next two, and was limited for the rest of the series. Jakob Poeltl has 22 games of playoff experience, most among Raptors rotation players, but the bulk of it came as a backup centre with Toronto before being sent to San Antonio in the Kawhi Leonard trade. Barrett and Immanuel Quickley have 16 and 13 games, respectively, but in smaller roles with New York. Brandon Ingram has played 10 playoff games in 10 years and has never won a series. He’s the last Raptors regular to have appeared in a playoff game, 714 days ago. The Cavs regulars have played 99 of them since then. None of Toronto’s key reserves have logged a single minute in the postseason.
Experience isn’t exactly a prerequisite, but it matters – especially at this time of year.
“First things first, there is always a learning curve, it doesn’t matter who you are,” said Barrett, who’s only playoff series win came in 2023, when his fifth-seeded Knicks defeated the fourth-place Cavaliers in five games. “If you haven’t played in the playoffs before, it’s a learning curve. It’s the craziest basketball I’ve ever played.”
“Just be ready for the physicality,” said Barnes, drawing on his brief experience. “You got to love this s—. This s— is fun.”
By all accounts, Barrett and Barnes have been the most vocal in preparing the younger guys for what’s to come. When his teammates have complained about the whistle recently, Barnes has told them to play through it because they’re not going to get those calls in the playoffs.
Internally, there’s confidence that the kids will be able to figure it out on the fly. After all, they’ve proven to be quick studies. Collin Murray-Boyles has a game that is seemingly built for playoff basketball. Does he think it will translate?
“I wouldn’t be on the team if it wasn’t supposed to and I wouldn’t be playing as much as I am if that wasn’t the case,” said the physical Raptors rookie, not lacking for confidence.
Sophomore Ja’Kobe Walter, a second-half standout, has gotten better and better as the games have gotten more important, which should serve him well. Sandro Mamukelashvili was a two-way player with Milwaukee when the Bucks took Boston to seven games in the second round of the 2022 playoffs; he wasn’t eligible to play but had a front-row seat to watch Giannis Antetokounmpo & Co. prepare. Jamal Shead has won at every level. He just led Toronto in games played in each of his first two NBA seasons, including playing all 82 this year, despite coming in as a second-round pick.
It can be done. The 2013-14 Raptors were coming off a feel-good season and returning to the playoffs after a lengthy drought – sound familiar? Three of their starters (DeMar DeRozan, Terrence Ross, and Jonas Valanciunas) were making their postseason debuts and, as a team, they had a fraction of the experience that the Paul Pierce and Kevin Garnett-led Nets came in with. But that group made up for a lack of experience with hard, scrappy play and chemistry, ultimately pushing Brooklyn to seven games in a memorable series that launched the most successful run in franchise history.
The Cavs, with their experience, depth and skill, will be heavy favourites.
Donovan Mitchell is coming off another brilliant campaign, averaging 27.9 points per game, seventh-most in the league. Jarrett Allen and Evan Mobley, the reigning Defensive Player of the Year, remain one of the game’s most formidable front court duos – a handful for any team to deal with, let alone a Raptors club that has struggled with size. Harden is still going strong at age 36; he’s fit in seamlessly and Cleveland is 19-7 with him in the lineup. Max Strus and Sam Merrill spread the floor and give them some pop off the bench, while Keon Ellis and veteran point guard (and former Raptor) Dennis Schroder have been solid additions, coming over from Sacramento at the deadline.
“They have an amazing team,” said Raptors head coach Darko Rajakovic. “Everybody thinks that they’re one of the contenders and I agree with that. They’re loaded and they made good decisions at the trade deadline… It’s going to be an amazing opportunity for us, and I think we’re going to really improve through the series.”
If this was the preferred matchup, imagine how tough the other one would’ve been. The Raptors have their work cut out for them when the series tips off in Cleveland on Saturday afternoon, but they’ve looked comfortable in the underdog role all season.
Few expected them to avoid the play-in tournament, let alone go 46-36 – a 16-win improvement from last year, tied for the fourth largest in the NBA – and qualify for the playoffs as the fifth seed.
“From when I got here, I would always be one of the guys saying, when you do things the right way, the results are going to come,” said Barrett, the Mississauga kid, who was beaming at the thought playing postseason basketball for his hometown team. “We’ve been working, building, and this is the result of that. Obviously, it’s still a process, but this is a good step for us. I don’t think many people thought we were going to be here. I’m just very proud of this group, how hard we work, how together we are. That’s going to continue in the playoffs.”
They have their warts, to be sure. If you take away the three early season wins over Cleveland, they went 2-22 against the league’s other top 10 teams. They’ve struggled to execute their offence late in games against quality opponents, when the physicality goes up and the pace slows down, which doesn’t exactly bode well for playoff basketball.
The hope is that the experience of playing must-win games down the stretch and emerging from a tight Eastern Conference playoff race will have, no pun intended, hardened them.
They’ll have to hope that Poeltl’s wonky back holds up in a battle with Cleveland’s bigs, and that Quickley can play and be effective, despite being hobbled by plantar fasciitis and a hamstring injury (that required a post-game MRI Sunday) on the same leg. A lot needs to go right for them to have a real shot at upsetting the Cavs or even turning this into a competitive first-round series.
But to even be talking about playoff basketball in mid-April speaks to how far this team has come in a short period of time. After a couple years of constant lineup shuffling, franchise-altering trades, jockeying for draft positioning, an unprecedented betting scandal, and a whole lot of losing, Rajakovic has steered his club back to the postseason.
In doing so, they accomplished a meaningful goal and even got the matchup that they wanted. Now, they’ll need to prove that they belong.