Here’s our summary of key economic events overnight that affect New Zealand, with news the US has imposed a new 10% tariff on importing gold bars, specifically targeting Switzerland and will no doubt apply to others as well. Previously these were imports tariff-free. It was an unexpected reclassification probably designed to bolster crypto prices at the expense of precious metals.

More globally, the July world food price index inched higher, but that masks record higher prices for meat proteins. And those were driven by beef and sheep prices. Dairy prices eased back from June but only slightly and they remain very near record levels.

Canada released its July labour market report overnight showing 1.6 mln people unemployed for a jobless rate of 6.9%. But the number of people employed fell by -40,800, with a drop of -51,000 in full-time jobs and a rise of +10,000 in part-time jobs. The decline was mostly among 15-24 year olds. Markets had expected overall employment to rise by +13,000.

In Japan, June data for household spending rose +1.3% from the same month a year ago, down sharply from a +4.7% increase in May. Forecasts were for a +2.6% rise. Households were worried about the impact of US tariffs and persistent inflation on consumer activity. On a monthly basis, spending plunged -5.2% in June from May, reversing May’s +4.6% rise and undershooting expectations of a -3% correction.

And staying with Japan, they agreed with the US on a 15% “reciprocal” tariff. But Trump issued an executive order to charge 25% in a pique of retribution for slights no-one can quite understand. The Japanese have called them out on it, insisting they honour the negotiated deal. Now Bessent and Lutnick have agreed to not only correct the “administrative mistake” but refund the capricious tariff charges. The Japanese are back with the same deal as the EU has.

Taiwan’s export performance continues to astound. Exports from the island nation surged +42% in July from a year ago to a record US$56.7 bln, following the +34% increase in June. They were expecting ‘only’ a +29% rise on this basis. by any measure this strength is quite remarkable. It is all built on electronics. Taiwanese imports were up +21% on the same basis.

In the US the appointment of Stephen Miran to fill a temporary vacancy as a board member of the US Federal Reserve adds in a protectionist sceptic to the voting mix. He is no fan of central bank independence. But oddly he has railed against the ‘revolving door’ of its members moving between Treasury positions and the Fed governorships. He has now become exhibit A.

In Australia, a former KPMG employee, who is not a registered tax professional, is alleged to have orchestrated a large-scale tax fraud. This was done through lodging false tax returns for clients of the consulting firm and then redirecting the refunds into his personal bank account.

The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.29%, up +4 bps from yesterday and up +7 bps for the week. The key 2-10 yield curve is firmer at +53 bps. Their 1-5 curve is flatter at -10 bps. And their 3 mth-10yr curve is flatter at -8 bps. The Australian 10 year bond yield starts today at 4.27% and up +2 bps from yesterday, and up +5 bps for the week. The China 10 year bond rate is unchanged at 1.70%. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate starts today at just under 4.43% and down -1 bp, down -13 bps for the week.

Wall Street is stronger today, up +0.8% from yesterday on the S&P500 and a +1.9% weekly rise. Overnight, European markets little-changed with only Paris showing movement, up +0.4%. That gave them a +2.1% weekly rise which was topped by Frankfurt’s +2.7% rise. For the week London only managed +0.3%. Tokyo ended its Friday session up another +1.9% to end its week up +4.2%. Hong Kong was down -0.9% on Friday for a +1.8% weekly gain. Shanghai was down -0.1% for a +2.5% weekly rise. Singapore fell -0.4% on Friday. The ASX200 closed its Friday session down -0.3% to end the week up +1.7%. And the NZX50 ended Friday down -0.3% and a +0.9% weekly gain.

The Fear & Greed index has moved back to the ‘greed’ zone from last week’s ‘neutral’ zone.

The price of gold will start today at US$3,395/oz, up US$4 from yesterday. But that has built to a +US$48 gain for the week, or up +1.4%. The implications of the new US tariff ruling isn’t yet reflected in the New York gold price. That may come later. Meanwhile the Whitehouse is mulling whether it will back off given the confusion it generated.

American oil prices have slipped back again, only slightly though to be just under US$64/bbl with the international Brent price unchanged at just over US$66.50/bbl. These are more than -US$3 lower than week-ago levels.

The Kiwi dollar is at 59.6 USc and up another +10 bps from yesterday, up +60 bps from a week ago. Against the Aussie we are down -20 bps at 91.2 AUc. Against the euro we are unchanged at 51.1 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 67.3, unchanged from yesterday and up +20 bps from this time last week.

The bitcoin price started today at US$116,846 and up +0.3% from this time yesterday. And that is up +3.2% from a week ago. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been low at just over +/-0.7%.

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