The California state flag flutters on a flagpole. The 2026 governor’s race has brought a crowded field of candidates vying for the state’s top job.
Nik Wheeler/Corbis via Getty Images
A new poll of the California governor’s race shows the early effects of former Rep. Eric Swalwell’s fall from grace.
After several allegations of sexual assault and misconduct against the Bay Area congressman broke over the last week, Swalwell abruptly exited the California governor’s race. He had been one of the leaders of the Democratic pack, and with him no longer running, the field is once again wide open, a new poll from Emerson College shows.
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The poll, commissioned by conservative-leaning Nexstar Media Group and KTLA-TV’s “Inside California Politics,” is the first major survey since Swalwell dropped out. It offers an early snapshot of how Democratic voters are reshuffling their support, although two Republican candidates are still holding an advantage at the very top.
Republican and former Fox News contributor Steve Hilton ranked highest with 17% support, making him the strongest candidate in the crowded field so far. His support has been narrow but steady for the last several months, and earlier this month he received an endorsement from President Donald Trump, which could help unify Republican voters.
Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco, the other major Republican in the race, follows Hilton with 14% support. Bianco is tied with billionaire Tom Steyer, a Democrat and former presidential candidate, whose inundation of the airwaves with ads has helped him pull ahead among the Democrats in the primary race.
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Swalwell had been closely competing in the polls with Steyer and former Orange County congresswoman Katie Porter before he dropped out. In the Emerson survey, Porter had 10% support, continuing her roller coaster election season as she’s moved up and down in the polls.
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Xavier Becerra, former health secretary and former California state attorney general, benefited the most from Swalwell’s departure, gaining 15 points among Democrats, the executive director of Emerson College Polling, Spencer Kimball, said in a Thursday news release. Becerra notched 10% overall support in the poll, a huge leap from his polling in the low single digits over the last few months.
San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan trailed behind the other candidates with 5% support. However, multiple billionaires have begun to back him after the demise of Swalwell’s campaign, Forbes reported. He was already the favorite of the tech donor class, raking in millions from Silicon Valley.
With Hilton and Bianco remaining at the top so close to the June 2 primary, it could be a wake-up call for Democrats who may end up splitting the vote too thin if the field doesn’t narrow soon. Under the state’s primary system, the two top candidates move forward to the general election regardless of party affiliation.
The state has not seen a Republican governor elected since Arnold Schwarzenegger, who served 2003-2011.
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One of the biggest considerations though, is that 23% of voters are still undecided, suggesting that there is still significant room for change as the primary approaches. Pollsters from other surveys had previously pointed to the lack of enthusiasm among voters in the governor’s race so far.
The Emerson College poll also shows some of the top issues that are driving voter preferences.
The economy is the main issue for 41% of voters, according to the poll, maintaining its lead since April 2025. Housing affordability was the most important issue for 20% of voters, followed by threats to democracy at 10%, and crime, immigration and health care all at 6%.
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The Emerson College poll surveyed 1,000 likely primary voters April 14-15. (The Swalwell allegations became public April 10, with Swalwell withdrawing from the governor’s race April 12 and announcing his resignation from Congress on April 13). The survey was only offered in English and the margin of error is 3 percent. Respondents were contacted by email and by text, where they were provided an online link.
California voters will decide which two candidates are to move on to the general election in a June 2 vote. The general election is scheduled to be held Nov. 3.