In a Gameweek where Manchester City are among the six clubs to play twice, the captaincy question for millions of managers in Fantasy Premier League is a very simple one: are you willing to risk going against Erling Haaland (£14.5m) ahead of Saturday’s 11:00 BST deadline?

DGW33 schedule

Club
DGW33

Bournemouth
 NEW (A)
LEE (H)

Brighton
TOT (A)
CHE (H)

Burnley
NFO (A)
MCI (H)

Chelsea
MUN (H) 
BHA (A)

Leeds
WOL (H) 
BOU (A)

Man City
ARS (H)
BUR (A)

The Norwegian has disappointed in Fantasy for a considerable period due to his ongoing injury niggles, producing just one of his nine double-figure hauls for the season from Gameweek 18 onwards.

But Haaland’s recent hat-trick against Liverpool in the FA Cup indicates he’s finally back to his very best ahead of his matches against Arsenal and Burnley.

Added to his hefty 60 per cent ownership, there can be little doubt that the Man City star will be the most-selected captain for Double Gameweek 33 (DGW33).

If your decision to pick another captain backfires, a big haul from Haaland could prove costly in mini-leagues and send your team tumbling down the overall rankings.

Who are the form players from the DGW33 clubs?

Nico O’Reilly (£5.0m) makes a very strong case as Haaland’s best armband rival thanks to a move into central midfielder for Man City.

Listed as a defender in Fantasy, O’Reilly has scored three goals and earned two clean sheets to total 39 points across his last four matches – that’s more than any other player in Fantasy and is more than THREE times the 12 points of Haaland.

As you can see from the table below, O’Reilly is one of only 10 players from the six DGW33 clubs who have delivered at least 20 points across their last four outings.

Joao Pedro (£7.7m) is the top-scoring forward here, with the Brazilian atoning for three blanks with a massive 19-point haul against Aston Villa in Gameweek 29.

In the main, though, it’s defenders who dominate and supply six of the 10, with AFC Bournemouth pair Adrien Truffert (£4.7m) and Marcos Senesi (£5.2m) O’Reilly’s nearest rivals in this position on 27 and 26 points respectively.

Top-scoring DGW33 players, last four matches

Player
Pts
G+A*
Clean
sheets
DC +
Bonus pts*

O’Reilly
39
3
2
5

Wieffer
28
2
2
9

Truffert
27
2
2
7

Senesi
26
0
2
9

Joao Pedro
25
4
N/A
3

Guehi
24
1
2
3

Bijol
23
0
2
9

Scott
22
1
2
7

Verbruggen
21
0
2
2

Van Hecke
20
0
2
7

*Scroll across on mobile to see the full table. G+A = Goals+Assists, DC = Defensive contribution points

Who’s had the most attacking potential?

An assessment of the attacking statistics shows that Burnley’s Zian Flemming (£5.3m) has boasted the greatest goal threat of DGW33 players over the last four matches.

As you can see from the table below, Flemming 12 shots in the box are joint-top along with Haaland, but when it comes to big chances – situation where a player is expected to score – he betters the Norwegian by five to three.

Joao Pedro also catches the eye. He has had four big chances and created one more, meaning he was involved in a total of five – joint-top with Flemming.

Along with Leeds’ Dominic Calvert-Lewin (£5.6m), O’Reilly has had four big chances – one more than Haaland – to further highlight why the latter is now boasting the same sort of goal threat as most forwards in Fantasy right now.

Meanwhile, Rayan Cherki’s (£6.3m) three big chances created mark him out as a big differential pick, with the Frenchman found in just nine per cent of squads, compared with the 57 per cent of his midfield team-mate Antoine Semenyo (£8.2m).

Attacking stats, last four matches

Player
Big-chance
involvement
Big
chances
BCC*
Shots
in box

Flemming
5
5
0
12

Joao Pedro
5
4
1
11

Calvert-Lewin
4
4
0
10

O’Reilly
4
4
0
9

Haaland
4
3
1
12

Welbeck
4
3
1
8

Kroupi
4
3
1
7

Tavernier
4
3
1
6

Semenyo
3
2
1
7

Cherki
3
0
3
6

*Scroll across on mobile to see the full table. BCC = Big chances created

Who is facing the weakest defences?

A delve into the team data suggests Calvert-Lewin has the most favourable DGW33, with both his opponents ranked in the bottom three in the league for conceding the most big chances across their last four matches.

In his first fixture, Leeds host a Wolves side who have conceded 18 big chances over their last four, contests while they then visit Bournemouth, who have allowed 13 big chances in their last four.

This means Leeds’ DGW33 opponents have conceded a combined 31 big chances across their last four matches.

As you can see from the table below, that’s at least 12 more than any of their DGW33 rivals, with Man City and Brighton well back in joint-second with totals of 19.

Team defensive stats, last four matches

Club
DGW33 opp +
BCC last four matches
*Total BCC by opp

LEE
WOL (H) 18
BOU (A) 13
31

MCI 
ARS (H) 9
BUR (A) 10
19

BHA
TOT (A) 10
CHE (H) 9
19

BUR
NFO (A) 11
MCI (H) 7
18

BOU
NEW (A) 13
LEE (H) 2
15

CHE
MUN (H) 11
BHA (A) 2
13

*Scroll across on mobile to see the full table. BCC = Big chances created

So, who is the best captain?

This is one of those Gameweeks where the bigger picture also has to be considered and, with Bench Boost, Free Hit, Triple Captain or Wildcard chips all likely to be in play, picking Haaland is clearly the safest approach and lessens the chances of your squad tumbling down the rankings.

The Norwegian was a big success in the reverse fixtures earlier in the season, too: he scored and earned nine points against Arsenal, while two goals and an assist helped him to 16 points against Burnley.

Watch: FPL experts reveal their captain picks

If you’re now in a position in your mini-league where you need to take risks, then give the armband to O’Reilly, as his extra points for goals and clean sheets have the potential to deliver monster hauls.

Crucially, the 21-year-old was passed fit by Pep Guardiola on Friday afternoon, having been forced off with a knock against Chelsea last Sunday. 

It’s hard to look past those two but if you’re willing to go against Man City, the team data suggests there would be no surprise if Calvert-Lewin has a successful DGW33, too.