As Tehran and Washington seem poised for another round of talks to end the fighting started by the US-Israeli assault. But some of the thorniest pressure points remain unresolved, including the status of the choked Strait of Hormuz.
Thousands of seafarers remain trapped in the vital waterway, ordinarily a conduit for around a fifth of the world’s oil and natural gas supplies. The flow of oil through the channel has slowed to a trickle since late February, consisting mostly of Iranian barrels, according to consultancy Rystad Energy.
Tehran is determined to retain some control of the strait, an international sea passage that Iranian authorities effectively blockaded since the start of the war, increasing energy costs around the world.
Several analysts now see a potentially permanent tolling system for ships transiting the waterway, albeit with important caveats. It’s unclear whether the US would agree to such an outcome, which could leave Iran with enormous leverage over the global economy.
For now, ship transits through the strait remain limited, having plunged from well over 100 transits a day before the conflict started. Thirty-six vessels moved between Friday and Sunday, with Saturday seeing the “highest tally” since early March, S&P Global Market Intelligence reported on Monday. The vessels included four passenger ships, it added.
At least 27 Iranian vessels have traversed the channel since April 13, when the US imposed the blockade, shipping analytics firm Kpler confirmed to CNN on Tuesday. In that time, CENTCOM has directed as many ships to change course.
Shipping through the strait “remains severely restricted,” one data provider said.
“This disruption is likely to continue until at least the end of May, keeping energy markets volatile and prices elevated,” CRU Group, which tracks commodity price and supply, said in a statement Tuesday.
“Failure to reach an agreement to restore traffic through Hormuz would have significant implications for the global economy,” the firm added.
CNN’s Eleni Giokos contributed reporting.