Who will form the next Welsh government?
Overall, our model projects a range of outcomes, though even at the higher end of predictions for Reform UK or Plaid Cymru, which is 40 seats for both parties, they are short of the 49 needed for a majority in the now 96-member Senedd.
Such a result would require some form of co-operation between parties, if not a full coalition government, in order for a first minister to be elected and for the day-to-day business of government to function.
Here, the balance tips decisively towards the likelihood of a Plaid Cymru-led government, as Reform UK and the Conservatives win a collective right-of-centre majority in a mere 3% of our model’s simulations, suggesting Dan Thomas’s route to being first minister is limited.
While Rhun ap Iorwerth has expressed a preference for forming a minority government of only Plaid Cymru ministers, he would still need the assistance of Labour and either the Greens or the Lib Dems for a majority in the Senedd, according to our model’s median projections.
Although they fall just short in our headline estimates, Plaid Cymru and Labour hold a majority between them in 47% of our simulations, while Plaid Cymru and the Greens do so in 5%. The three parties hold a combined majority in 96% of our mid-campaign model’s simulations.