This is the time of year when Israel marks Holocaust Remembrance Day, followed a week later by Memorial Day, for Israel’s war dead and victims of terrorism. Then the country shifts to Independence Day at 8 p.m., from mourning to celebration. During normal times, it’s a period that I find particularly moving, with the powerful shift from the somber to the joyous.

But this year, as I write this in the run-up to Memorial Day, the country isn’t in the mood to celebrate after two-and-a-half-years of war that began with the massacre on Israel’s Gaza border and has culminated, inconclusively, with a war against Israel’s Iranian archenemy. This year, Independence Day, marking Israel’s 78th birthday, falls on April 22, when the ceasefire with Iran was due to expire.

Last year, after the United States joined Israel in attacking Iran’s nuclear program, President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu crowed about how Iran’s nuclear program had been obliterated. Their rhetoric now is similar, but the Israeli public isn’t buying it. A poll commissioned by the Maariv newspaper just after the start of the ceasefire with Iran found that only 22% of the Israeli public thought Israel and the United States were the victors in the fighting. A poll commissioned by Israeli Channel 12 last week found that only 33% Israelis trusted Trump to look after Israel’s interests in negotiating an agreement with Iran.

This isn’t the victory that Netanyahu had been hoping for in the run-up to Knesset elections this year. It also isn’t the Independence Day that Netanyahu envisioned. When Trump visited Israel in October, the Israeli prime minister triumphantly announced that, for the first time in Israel’s history, the Israel Prize, which is conferred on Independence Day, would be awarded to a non-Israeli – Donald J. Trump – for his unique contribution to the Jewish people. Pundits described how Trump would come to Israel to accept the prize and to campaign for Netanyahu’s Likud party’s continued rule.

But Trump likes to be associated with success, and at least so far, he has limited success to show from the war. He isn’t coming to Israel to accept the Israel Prize and, according to the Ynet news website, isn’t even delivering a video message.

Netanyahu is in a particular bind. He had repeatedly promised Israelis that Hamas was just about defeated in Gaza. He made similar claims following Israel’s spectacular assault on Hezbollah and then again regarding Iran during this year’s war. But Hamas is still in control of half of Gaza. Hezbollah remains a potent military force with an arsenal of rockets that it has used to pound Israel’s north until last week’s ceasefire. And the Islamic regime remains in full control of Iran.

Israel’s military strength has preserved the country’s existence and has enabled it to celebrate 78 years of Israeli independence. But Netanyahu has failed to even attempt to translate the military successes into diplomatic achievements for Israel. Instead, he has been dragged into ceasefires on vague terms by his senior partner, Donald Trump, on all three fronts.

We shouldn’t be naive about the challenges ahead in disarming Hamas and Hezbollah and somehow curbing the threat from Iran. But if Israel plays its cards right, I think the country has a chance, with intensive diplomatic involvement from the international community, including the Arab countries, to make peace with Lebanon and then with Saudi Arabia and other Arab countries. But the breakthrough won’t happen by military force alone.

Cliff Savren is a former Clevelander who covers the Middle East from Ra’anana, Israel. He is an editor at the English edition of Haaretz.