Left to right – Kiera Marshall,Tom Giffard and Lauren James. Photo Sharp End

A Plaid Cymru candidate has described the prospect of Reform UK emerging as the largest party in the Senedd as “terrifying”, as a new poll shows the two parties locked in a tight race.

The ITV Cymru Wales survey, conducted by YouGov in partnership with Cardiff University, puts Plaid Cymru and Reform UK level on 29% of the vote, with Reform gaining ground and Plaid slipping since the previous poll.

Kiera Marshall, a Plaid Cymru candidate, said the findings underlined the stakes of the upcoming election.

“I think it’s terrifying, frankly. The idea of Reform being the largest party in Wales, what that would do to our services, what it would do for people on the lowest incomes, all the children, a third of our children living in poverty,” she said.

“We’ve consistently been around 30%, we’ve been quite stable for over the last few months.

“I think it just emphasises what Plaid Cymru has been saying this whole time, that this is a two-horse race between Plaid Cymru and Reform, and people really need to think about making sure we’re not letting Reform in through the back door.”

Modelling based on the Senedd’s new d’Hondt voting system suggests Reform would win 37 seats and Plaid Cymru 36, leaving both parties short of a majority ahead of the May 7 election.

Labour is projected to finish third on 13%, translating into around 12 seats, while the Greens are on 10% with seven seats. The Conservatives are on 8%, forecast to win three seats, and the Liberal Democrats on 6%, which would return leader Jane Dodds as the party’s sole MS.

Despite the close contest, analysts said the route to forming a government could differ significantly between the two leading parties.

Dr Jac Larner, of Cardiff University’s Wales Governance Centre, said the “coalition arithmetic” was more favourable to Plaid, which could potentially work with Labour and the Greens to form a majority, while Reform had fewer viable partners.

Speaking on ITV Cymru Wales’ Sharp End, Reform UK’s Joe Martin said the poll reflected the party’s recent momentum.

“I think it reflects just about how well the leadership debates went for us, so we’ve seen a drop-off for everyone else and then a bump for Reform,” he said.

Labour’s Rob Stewart questioned the findings, saying they did not match what the party was seeing on the ground.

“You pick your poll, you pick your day. All I can say is this poll is inconsistent with what we’re seeing on the doorstep,” he said.

Encouraged

Green Party candidate Lauren James said her party remained encouraged by its position.

“I’d have to say that this time last year, if you had given me this poll, I would have been jumping for joy,” she said.

“We haven’t had a Green elected in the Senedd this year, and I think we’re still doing really well.”

Conservative representative Tom Giffard suggested his party could still play a key role in forming the next government.

“It’s highly likely that there could be a Conservative group in there that could hold the balance of power in the next Senedd,” he said.

“The best way to do that is to vote Welsh Conservatives because in this system, every Welsh Conservative vote counts.”

Campaigning

Liberal Democrat candidate Cadan ap Tomas said polling did not fully reflect the strength of campaigning on the ground.

“I think what this sort of polling doesn’t accurately reflect is the strength of all of us campaigning right across the country,” he said.

“I think we can achieve the surprise on the night.”

ITV Cymru Wales political editor Adrian Masters said the poll would “galvanise” both Plaid and Reform supporters, with the election shaping up as a “change election” as voters look for an alternative to the status quo.

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