SASKATOON — Turmoil in the Middle East is reviving concerns over fertilizer dependence in key grain export markets.
Canada imported an average of 4.1 million tonnes of fertilizer per year from 2018-23 period, according to a 2024 study by Fertilizer Canada.
That total includes 1.46 million tonnes of monoammonium phosphate (MAP), 92,027 tonnes of diammonium phosphate (DAP), 937,000 tonnes of urea, 518,232 tonnes of ammonium and 290,050 tonnes of UAN.
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Canada also imports other products such as NPK blends, ammonium nitrate and calcium ammonium nitrate.
The phosphate comes from the United States, while the nitrogen products originate from the U.S. and the Middle East.
“Canada produces nitrogen and potash but does not produce any phosphate and relies on imports,” Fertilizer Canada spokesperson Kayla Fitzpatrick said in an email.
The nitrogen and potash are produced in Western Canada.
“Due to supply chain challenges of getting bulk shipments of fertilizer across the country, it is easier to import fertilizer into Eastern Canada,” she said.
Why it Matters: Fertilizer is the most costly crop input on many farmers.
Shipping restrictions in the Strait of Hormuz are causing major supply disruptions in the United States and Brazil, the world’s two largest fertilizer importers, according to an analysis by Purdue University’s Center for Commercial Agriculture.
The strait carries up to 30 per cent of global fertilizer shipments. The Gulf countries are the largest regional exporter of urea and ammonia and the second-largest regional exporter of DAP and MAP.
The U.S. imported 13 per cent of its nitrogen fertilizer, 16 per cent of its phosphate and 95 per cent of its potash in 2025.
“The United States has a strong domestic fertilizer industry, supplying nearly 60 per cent of its demand for the primary micronutrients,” stated the Purdue report authored by Joana Colussi and Michael Langemeier.
“Even so, it remains exposed to major supply disruptions and sharp increases in fertilizer prices.”
Brazil is even more dependent on foreign supplies, importing 95 per cent of its nitrogen fertilizer, 72 per cent of its phosphate and 96 per cent of its potash.
“Brazil does not have a strong domestic fertilizer industry, despite the scale of its agricultural production,” stated the report.
Brazil and the U.S. both released plans in 2022 to reduce their dependence on imported fertilizers after the Russia-Ukraine war disrupted global supplies. However, their domestic production of NPK has changed little since then.
Meanwhile, Brazil’s imports have risen, reaching a record 43.3 million tonnes in 2025, up from 39.3 million tonnes in 2021.
“Brazil remains in a riskier position because import dependence is high across all three primary macronutrients, and domestic production has not kept pace with rising record demand,” stated the report.
The soybean fertilizer purchasing window for the 2026-27 crop season is happening now in Brazil, while in the U.S. Midwest, much of the fertilizer for this crop year had already been purchased and/or applied last fall before the conflict began.
“Despite these different impacts, both Brazil and the United States should step up efforts to expand domestic fertilizer production and reduce their exposure to external shocks,” stated the Purdue analysis.
Australia is also heavily dependent on imported fertilizer, according to a recent special report by Dennis Voznesenski, agricultural economist with the Commonwealth Bank of Australia.
An average of 87 per cent of the country’s nitrogen fertilizer, 68 per cent of its phosphate and 100 per cent of its potash fertilizer was imported between 2019 and 2023.
The Middle East supplied 64 per cent of Australia’s urea and 33 per cent of its DAP and MAP in 2025.
Many Australian farmers had sufficient fertilizer for the winter crop planting that is happening right now.
“However, wheat crops need urea post-planting through until flowering in September to maximize yield potential,” said Voznesenski.
“Following flowering, further urea will be needed to increase the protein content of the wheat.”
It will also be needed prior to canola flowering around September.
The winter crop harvest will begin in late October and should be finished by early January .
Voznesenski is forecasting a nine to 25 per cent reduction in Australian wheat production, a 17 to 32 per cent drop in barley and a 10 to 31 per cent decline in canola output for the 2026-27 crop compared to 2025-26.
That is based on a 15 to 45 per cent reduction in urea application this year.
“If the fertilizer export disruption lasts past mid-year and well into the Southern Hemisphere’s grain growing season, global markets should begin pricing in reduced production potential via higher prices,” he said in his report.
