State Sen. Scott Wiener speaks at a January forum for House candidates alongside competitors Saikat Chakrabarti, left, and Connie Chan.
Scott Strazzante/S.F. Chronicle
A new San Francisco Chronicle poll found that likely primary voters across almost every demographic group prefer state Sen. Scott Wiener in the race to replace Rep. Nancy Pelosi, while the other two leading candidates, Supervisor Connie Chan and wealthy former software engineer Saikat Chakrabarti, are neck and neck for a distant second place.
Primary ballots are due in less than a month, and the two candidates with the most votes, regardless of party, will advance to the general election in November. At stake is the chance to represent California’s 11th Congressional District, which covers all but the southernmost neighborhoods of San Francisco. The Excelsior, Portola, Visitacion Valley, Crocker-Amazon and parts of the Ingleside and Oceanview neighborhoods lie in the 15th District.
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In total, about 40% of respondents said that they either planned to vote for Wiener or leaned toward voting for him. Chakrabarti and Chan, meanwhile, are in a statistical tie, with 18% and 17% of respondents choosing them, respectively. Former Republican Marie Hurabiell is in a distant fourth, at 5%, with 13% of respondents saying they would vote for another candidate.
The poll reflects the opinions of 819 likely voters in the district from April 28 to May 3, surveyed by text message and email. Respondents could take the poll in English or simplified Chinese. It had a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3%.
Wiener’s popularity cut across almost every demographic. The state senator, who has the best name recognition in the race, was the top choice across age groups as well as across ethnicities. That includes Chinese voters, a demographic group Chan has been courting.
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While Wiener’s support among Chinese voters wasn’t as strong as it was among other ethnicities, it still was well above Chan’s for that group: 36% of Chinese respondents said they would vote for Wiener, while just 19% said they preferred Chan.
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The poll also made it possible to look at support by rough regions of the city. Voters in the northwestern part of San Francisco, some of which Chan represents on the Board of Supervisors, also supported Wiener over the other candidates by a large margin.
That’s not to say that Wiener leads among every sector of the electorate. While he enjoys the most support from self-described liberals and moderates, progressives are just as inclined to vote for his two top competitors, Chan and Chakrabarti, as they are for him: The three leading Democratic candidates split the progressive poll respondents equally, each getting about 30% of their support.
Regardless of whom they supported, poll respondents cited cost of living as their top concern when considering which candidate should represent them at the national level, followed by housing and President Donald Trump.
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Not as important to voters? Their stance on the Israel-Gaza conflict and immigration, which only 4% and 3% of respondents rated as their top issues, respectively.
Between Chan and Chakrabarti, the poll showed that Chakrabarti had more support from young voters and those who have lived in the city for less than 15 years. Chan, on the other hand, had Chakrabarti beat among middle-aged voters.
Other socioeconomic factors such as homeownership and college education made for little difference in preference — but long-term residents of the city were less supportive of Wiener compared with those newer to the city.
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Compared with the overall population of San Francisco, the poll overrepresents the opinions of residents who are older, whiter and likelier to own their homes — but that’s because those demographics are also overrepresented among registered voters in the 11th district.