New political poll: Christopher Luxon’s popularity drops to 2-year low, Labour’s party vote rises

The Green Party is down 2% to 10% and NZ First continues its upward trajectory, gaining 1% to sit on 9%. There was no movement for Act and Te Pāti Māori in the poll, sitting on 8% and 4%, respectively.

Meanwhile, NZ First Minister Shane Jones has popped up in the preferred Prime Minister ranks for the first time in more than a decade – sitting at 1%.

Prime Minister Christopher Luxon, RMA Reform Minister Chris Bishop, Regional Development Minister Shane Jones and Transport Minister Simeon Brown announcing the Government’s fast-track consenting one-stop-shop regime at Wellington’s Basin Reserve in March last year. Photo / Mark MitchellPreferred Prime Minister

Luxon sits on 20% after taking a 3% hit since the last 1 News-Verian poll. A point behind Luxon is Labour leader Chris Hipkins, who remains steady on 19%.

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NZ First leader Winston Peters ticked up 1% to sit on 7%. Greens co-leader Chlöe Swarbrick is down 1%, sitting on 4%. Act leader David Seymour is steady on 4%.

Race neck-and-neck in Taxpayers’ Union-Curia poll

It comes after the Taxpayers’ Union-Curia poll this morning, which put the race between the centre-left and centre-right as neck-and-neck.

On those results, Labour had the most support on 33.6% (up 2 points), National was on 31.8% (down 2.1) and the Greens were up 0.4 to 9.8%.

Act dropped 0.5 to 8.6%, New Zealand First was down 2 points to 7.8% and Te Pāti Māori fell 0.3 to 3.2%. Just over 6% of those surveyed were undecided.

Greens co-leader Chlöe Swarbrick. Photo / Mark Mitchell

Converting those results into seats in the House, Labour would have 43, National would have 40, the Greens would have 12, Act would have 11, New Zealand First would have 10 and Te Pāti Māori would get six (presuming they kept their electorate seats).

This would put both the centre-left and the centre-right on 61 seats, meaning neither side would have a majority to govern.

Looking at the preferred Prime Minister stakes, National’s Luxon was up 0.5 to 20.2%, matched by Labour’s Chris Hipkins (who was up 0.6).

NZ First leader Winston Peters was down 1.1 points to 8.2%, the Greens’ Chlöe Swarbrick was up 1 point to 8% and Act leader David Seymour was up 0.5 to 6.2%.

Lara Greaves, associate professor in politics at Victoria University of Wellington, told Herald NOW this morning that a first-term government would be expected to be polling better, but Labour also had work to do, with the party yet to release any policies.

Julia Gabel is a Wellington-based political reporter. She joined the Herald in 2020 and has most recently focused on data journalism.

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