May 12 Tuesday Morning Report
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This morning starts with a chill, and there may be frost near and north of the PA line back to Western Maryland, where temps are in the 30s. With the sunshine, we have a pleasant afternoon to look forward to as temps reach near 70℉.
Tomorrow will be warmer, and that will lead to multiple lines of rain and thunderstorms. See the simulation (suggestion) below.
After a chilly Thursday, the pattern will FLIP! Heat will build this weekend, and it will feel like summer by Sunday into next week.
Let’s Take A Look:
Rainfall Observations Yesterday
This was a disappointment for Baltimore, right on the edge of the rain line and barely registering a few hundredths of an inch.
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Morning Temperatures
Frosty spots with 30s observed just north and west of Baltimore.
Morning Surface Weather
Cloud Simulation Comparisons: 8 AM to Midnight
A sunny day with clouds arriving tonight.
Afternoon Temperatures
MOUNTAIN CAM: WESTERN MARYLAND
This webcam is positioned at The Greene Turtle Deep Creek Lake and shows Wisp Resort, including a zoomed-in view of Squirrel Cage, The Face, the terrain park, Boulder, the mountain coaster, the tubing park and a shot of McHenry Cove at Deep Creek Lake!
CLIMATE DATA: Baltimore
Yesterday: Low 46°F; High 63°F
Precipitation: 0.02″
Snow Depth: 0″
Season Snow Total: 17.6″
Top Wind Gust: 33 mph
TODAY May 12
Sunrise at 5:56 AM
Sunset at 8:10 PM
Normal Low in Baltimore: 52ºF
Record Low: 35ºF in 1963
Normal High in Baltimore: 75ºF
Record High: 94ºF in 1881
Rainfall Deficit at BWI
Prior 2 Years (2024 + 2025) = -16.91″
2026 YTD = -5.86″
DROUGHT REPORT UPDATE
The year-to-date deficit slipped further to -5.86”, with the cumulative shortfall since 2024 now at -22.77″.
WEDNESDAY
NOAA Thunderstorm Outlook
There is a marginal risk of storms turning severe in the mountains. Metro areas are more likely to get thunderstorms that may weaken a little… but this is worth watching for any adjustments, as temps will rise and can add more fuel.
Morning Temperatures
Afternoon Temperatures
Radar Simulation: Noon to Midnight
HRRR Model
Multiple lines of rain with embedded thunderstorms begin mid-afternoon.
Snapshots: Suggestions NOT a Promise
4 PM
8 PM
Midnight
Rainfall POTENTIAL Total
I am aware that recent events have been underwhelming. This is from the ‘blend’ of models and trends on the lower side.
Jet Stream Thursday
This may be the end of the spring chill….
Jet Stream Thursday to Monday
The trough will pivot out, and a large ridge will build in for the weekend. Summer heat will be building by Sunday into next week.
Jet Stream Monday
This strong ridge will set us up for a summer preview of heat that will last a few days.
7-Day Forecast
Tuesday: Sunny & Pleasant. High 71ºF, Low —
Wednesday: PM T’Storms (90%). High 77ºF, Low 54ºF.
Thursday: Cooler, Showers (30%). High 67ºF, Low 53ºF.
Friday: Mostly Sunny. High 74ºF, Low 50ºF.
Saturday: Sunny & Warmer. High 84ºF, Low 58ºF.
Sunday: Heating Up. High 88ºF, Low 63ºF.
Monday: Hot. High 91ºF, Low 68ºF.
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THANK YOU:
Baltimore Sun Magazine Readers’ Choice Best Of Baltimore
Maryland Trek 12 Day 7 Completed Sat August 9
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RESTATING MY MESSAGE ABOUT DYSLEXIA
I am aware there are some spelling and grammar typos and occasional other glitches. I take responsibility for my mistakes and even the computer glitches I may miss. I have made a few public statements over the years, but if you are new here, you may have missed it: I have dyslexia and found out during my second year at Cornell University. It didn’t stop me from getting my meteorology degree and being the first to get the AMS CBM in the Baltimore/Washington region. One of my professors told me that I had made it that far without knowing and to not let it be a crutch going forward. That was Mark Wysocki, and he was absolutely correct! I do miss my mistakes in my own proofreading. The autocorrect spell check on my computer sometimes does an injustice to make it worse. I can also make mistakes in forecasting. No one is perfect at predicting the future. All of the maps and information are accurate. The ‘wordy’ stuff can get sticky. There has been no editor who can check my work while writing and to have it ready to send out in a newsworthy timeline. Barbara Werner is a member of the web team that helps me maintain this site. She has taken it upon herself to edit typos when she is available. That could be AFTER you read this. I accept this and perhaps proves what you read is really from me… It’s part of my charm. #FITF
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