Is Weather Driving Short-Term Price Action
Weekend forecast updates removed roughly 10 cooling degree days from the 10–15 day outlook for the eastern U.S., triggering a weaker Sunday night open. While prices quickly recovered to test $3 early Monday, traders remain cautious given that most summer rallies have been sold into. Strong high pressure will dominate much of the U.S. through Aug. 17, pushing highs into the upper 80s–100s, but cooler exceptions in the far north are expected to cap overall demand growth.
How Are Physical Markets Responding
Physical gas prices were mixed last week. NGI’s Weekly Spot Gas National Average climbed 14.5 cents to $2.665, with notable gains at Eastern Gas South (+32.0 cents to $2.505) and Transco Zone 6 non-NY (+38.5 cents to $2.605). The Waha hub saw the largest jump, adding 51.5 cents, though it still averaged just 80.5 cents, underscoring persistent regional bottlenecks.
Can Storage and Hurricane Season Support Bulls
Traders see no immediate supply threats despite active hurricane season headlines, as healthy end-of-season storage projections continue to weigh on sentiment. Without a disruptive weather event or significant heat-driven demand spike, storage trends are likely to keep rallies in check.
Market Forecast