Welcome back to the Power Rankings.
We’re set up for an incredibly dramatic final fortnight of the 2025 season – but with Collingwood and Geelong in particular, it’s worth remembering not to overreact.
See our ranking of every AFL club from best to worst after Round 22 below!
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How do the Power Rankings work? We take wins and losses into account, but also the quality of opposition faced and whether teams are likely to get healthier and/or improve going forward. It’s a little bit ‘who’s hot and who’s not’; part predictive, part analysis of what’s happened. If Team A is above Team B, we’d probably tip A to win if they were playing at a neutral venue this weekend.
All times AEST.
1. ADELAIDE CROWS (16-5, 142.4%)
Last week: Ranked 1st, def West Coast by 9 pts
Hopefully a win that “felt like we’d lost”, per Matthew Nicks, is as good as a loss? That’s if you believe in the idea that teams sometimes ‘need a loss’ after a healthy winning streak. But as Collingwood is currently finding out, sometimes a loss you ‘needed’ just brings a bunch more losses you didn’t need or want. Let’s just pause briefly to remind ourselves how impressive this all is – Adelaide, who finished 15th last year, are the only team locked into the finals with two rounds remaining. We wanted to be positive coming into 2025, thinking that 2024 was the aberration and their slow climb up the table across 2020-23 was more reflective of how they’d built their list. We were a bit too afraid to actually put the Crows in our eight, but then almost nobody else did either; maybe we’ll all be sick of Adelaide’s success in a couple of years’ time so let’s just enjoy the novelty of it while we can. Welcome back to September.
This week: Collingwood at Adelaide Oval, Saturday 7:35pm
Rankine: Eagles scare a valuable lesson | 01:30
2. GEELONG (15-6, 139.8%)
Last week: Ranked 4th, def Essendon by 44 pts
They could certainly lose to the Swans, but even if that happens, everybody agrees the Cats have had a pretty gentle run into September. Their final six games of the season have all come against the bottom nine. How much does that matter, though? We only have to look back a few years to find a good comparison – the 2022 Cats. They played just one top-eight team in their final six games, the eighth-placed Bulldogs, winning all six games. You could maybe argue that soft run made them a bit rusty in the start of their qualifying final, when Collingwood kicked the first three goals, but the Cats still went on to win and dominated both the preliminary and grand finals. Admittedly we don’t think the 2025 Cats are as good as the 2022 edition but we think the principle stands up here – a soft or hard draw running into September matters only really matters if you squint.
This week: Sydney Swans at the SCG, Sunday 3:15pm
High contact, for taking off a headband? | 00:33
3. BRISBANE LIONS (14-6-1, 111.3%)
Last week: Ranked 2nd, lost to Sydney by 2 pts
It would be genuinely ridiculous if the Lions missed the finals, right? Everyone agrees they’re one of the best teams in it. We can’t even blame their percentage for their predicament – but it does point to a lack of consistency. They pass the vibes test more than they pass the numbers test; they’ve given up big scores a bit too often, partially due to quite a few injuries down back, and they’ve been bizarrely beatable at the Gabba, dropping four games at home. In a normal season this would not matter but 14 and a half wins will likely not be enough to play finals. If they lose to Fremantle and Hawthorn over the next fortnight, we think Brisbane will finish ninth. They are surely good enough to win at least once and avoid that – winning twice would get them into the top four, where they ‘belong’ – but the fact we have to consider it is just crazy.
This week: Fremantle at Optus Stadium, Friday 8:20pm
Gaz: ‘Not on!’ Smith lucky to avoid fine | 01:43
4. GOLD COAST SUNS (14-6, 125.1%)
Last week: Ranked 5th, def Carlton by 19 pts
Remember, the Suns would be third on the ladder right now if they’d already played (and presumably won) that extra game against Essendon. They are so very close to clinching a September debut, and with just two more wins, they’re a huge chance of their first ever final being a qualifying final. Funnily enough that would see them matching their Expansion Cup rivals, the Giants, who bullied the Swans in their first finals appearance before losing that prelim to the Bulldogs. That’s an instructive case, though. Off the back of one qualifying final victory, the Giants were premiership favourites heading into prelim final weekend; that is how quickly you can be within reach of the ultimate glory once September begins. Beat the Giants, and everyone will start recognising what the Suns are on the brink of doing.
This week: GWS Giants at People First Stadium, Saturday 12:35pm
Can Ben King ‘do it in the finals?’ | 01:04
5. HAWTHORN (14-7, 121.2%)
Last week: Ranked 6th, def Collingwood by 64 pts
We thought the Hawks were too good to miss the finals… and now they probably won’t. A brilliant performance against Collingwood, admittedly assisted by the early injury for Jeremy Howe, showed Sam Mitchell’s men at their best – after a pretty brave performance the week before against Adelaide too. They’ve found a good time to find some form and as long as they beat Melbourne it would be hard for them to miss the eight; hard, though not impossible. It is still going to be tricky for them to win probably four finals in a row without Will Day, and they’d probably have to win at least one or two of those interstate, too. But you never know in a season as even as this.
This week: Melbourne at the MCG, Saturday 4:15pm
MOTY?! King leaves commentary stunned | 00:42
6. COLLINGWOOD (15-6, 124.2%)
Last week: Ranked 3rd, lost to Hawthorn by 64 pts
It’s hard to know exactly how much the Jeremy Howe incident, and absence, hurt them against the Hawks. It’s hard to say it was the reason they lost by 64 points, because there are obviously more problems than just that, but it’s like everyone forgot what it did to their team on the night (both emotionally and strategically). Overall the margin overstates where the Magpies are at. They are a flawed top-four contender like pretty much everyone else in the eight right now. Their brilliant start to the year gave them margin for error and they have used up all of it; now they need to remember that they always beat Adelaide. Do it and they could even sneak back into the top two, but should at least make the top four. Lose and the Melbourne game on the Friday night of Round 24 will be way, way more interesting than anyone expected.
This week: Adelaide Crows at Adelaide Oval, Saturday 7:35pm
Pendlebury signs one-year Pies extension | 00:36
7. FREMANTLE (15-6, 112.7%)
Last week: Ranked 7th, def Port Adelaide by 6 pts
So they really are Collingwood 2022 2.0 (read that in Richie Benaud’s voice). Both teams started 4-5 but then went on a brilliant winning run all the way to 15-6, including a bunch of absolute thrillers. We didn’t believe in those Pies as a top-four team, but they got there, and got even better in the finals before their run to the 2023 flag. We don’t believe in the Dockers as a top-four team either but clearly the talent is there to do some damage if they make it. But they can’t rest on the laurels of their record, which in any other year would’ve clinched a finals spot by now. We saw another outlet’s proclaim Freo’s ‘worst case’ scenario was 8th; that’s absolutely not true. If they lose their next two games, we expect them to miss the finals; we know they’re 4th right now but they would fall below Brisbane and the Bulldogs guaranteed (assuming the Dogs beat West Coast), and below Gold Coast and Hawthorn as long as each side wins once (which is very likely). Their only hope would be staying above GWS which is not a sure thing in the slightest. Yes, the upside here is a top-four finish, but the downside is severe.
This week: Brisbane Lions at Optus Stadium, Friday 8:20pm
Nat Fyfe to retire at end of season | 00:34
8. WESTERN BULLDOGS (13-8, 135.4%)
Last week: Ranked 8th, def Melbourne by 6 pts
Well, hopefully for their sake, THAT was the classic late-season Bulldogs make a mess of themselves game. It wouldn’t have been as bad as the 2023 loss to a two-win West Coast team with a percentage of 50.6%, at home – sorry Dogs fans, we had to bring it up – but it would’ve been pretty terrible had Luke Beveridge’s men decided to drop one to the coach-less Demons. Thankfully for their supporters’ sanity, they didn’t, and as long as they avoid… oh god, it’s West Coast again… an upset they’ll head into Round 24 with their season alive. In fact the Bulldogs cannot realistically miss the eight if they win their remaining two games, because of their incredible percentage. They still look too flawed defensively to make a deep September run but you never know; we’re projecting them to finish 7th and start with an interstate elimination final…
This week: West Coast Eagles at Marvel Stadium, Sunday 4:40pm
Bulldogs defeat Dees to stay alive! | 01:49
9. GWS GIANTS (14-7, 114.1%)
Last week: Ranked 9th, def North Melbourne by 54 pts
It really might be that Bulldogs loss that costs them. Results aren’t going the Giants’ way – Fremantle and Hawthorn keep winning to pull away from them, while the Dogs are inching closer to them from below. And if they get stuck on 15 wins, their percentage will only be good enough if they’re in a tie with Fremantle. So that makes the Expansion Cup absolutely massive – win it and the Giants could even sneak into the top four. Lose it and they’re not going to have much control over their finals fate. They haven’t done a whole lot wrong this year but they also haven’t lived up to the billing as a true flag contender often enough, which in a weird year like this, may cost them.
This week: Gold Coast Suns at People First Stadium, Saturday 12:35pm
Shiel sent to tribunal for rough conduct | 00:42
10. SYDNEY SWANS (11-10, 95.3%)
Last week: Ranked 10th, def Brisbane by 2 pts
The Swans are so incredibly isolated on the ladder; so clearly better than the bottom eight, but nowhere near the top nine because of their injury-ravaged start to the season. While they are still a flawed side at either end of the ground, it feels like they absolutely would’ve been in that 14 to 15-win range if they’d gotten a fair run at 2025. It’s a shame but, at the same time, this post-bye resurgence which has included two wins over top-nine teams is the proof of concept Dean Cox needed. His club should go into 2026 full of confidence this was the aberration year, and that they can bounce back into September, especially if they make a couple of good moves in the off-season adding some bookends. Whether it’s Jamarra Ugle-Hagan or someone else, it definitely seems they’ll be busier than usual.
This week: Geelong at the SCG, Sunday 3:15pm
Simpson OUT of Demons coach race | 01:13
11. MELBOURNE (7-14, 95%)
Last week: Ranked 12th, lost to Western Bulldogs by 6 pts
This week: Hawthorn at the MCG, Saturday 4:15pm
12. CARLTON (7-14, 91.4%)
Last week: Ranked 11th, lost to Gold Coast by 19 pts
This week: Port Adelaide at Marvel Stadium, Saturday 1:20pm
13. ST KILDA (8-13, 87.9%)
Last week: Ranked 13th, def Richmond by 4 pts
This week: Essendon at Marvel Stadium, Friday 7:20pm
14. PORT ADELAIDE (8-13, 80.5%)
Last week: Ranked 14th, lost to Fremantle by 6 pts
This week: Carlton at Marvel Stadium, Saturday 1:20pm
A tricky question we don’t have the answer to: of these four clubs, who would you rather be? Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera plays a huge part in the answer; if he chooses Port Adelaide, which seems more and more likely based on every day he doesn’t choose St Kilda, they would probably have the best young core in the competition. Nas, Rozee, Butters, Horne-Francis, Bergman and Georgiades is a pretty incredible top six; it’d just be about how long they can keep them together. Melbourne will be counting its lucky stars Dan Houston chose not to request a trade there, because they’re better off having kept their first-round picks and added Langford and Lindsay. When you consider the top-end talent they’ve drafted recently, and the fact they’ve lost five games by eight points or less, their season could’ve easily been good enough to save Simon Goodwin’s job. He made the pitch they’re not far away from contending again and we can see that happening in 2026, though we wouldn’t exactly bank on it. And Carlton? …well, theoretically they should have the best chance of winning the 2026 flag out of this group. They’ve backed Michael Voss in for one more shot at it. But that assumes they don’t cop a bunch of injuries again, and they always cop a bunch of injuries.
Draper & the ‘revolving door’ at Bombers | 03:04
15. ESSENDON (6-14, 71.3%)
Last week: Ranked 16th, lost to Geelong by 44 pts
This week: St Kilda at Marvel Stadium, Friday 7:20pm
16. NORTH MELBOURNE (4-16-1, 72.5%)
Last week: Ranked 15th, lost to GWS by 54 pts
This week: Richmond at Ninja Stadium, Sunday 1:10pm
17. RICHMOND (5-16, 66.3%)
Last week: Ranked 17th, lost to St Kilda by 4 pts
This week: North Melbourne at Ninja Stadium, Sunday 1:10pm
18. WEST COAST EAGLES (1-20, 63%)
Last week: Ranked 18th, lost to Adelaide by 9 pts
This week: Western Bulldogs at Marvel Stadium, Sunday 4:40pm
Some very weird results from this quartet on the weekend. The Bombers keep getting plaudits while getting thumped… and to be fair, a 14-point loss at the SCG followed by a 44-point loss at Pork Barrel Park is better than you’d expect given the state of their list. North Melbourne continues to be way worse than they should be, yet we’re still backing them to beat Richmond and escape the bottom two. And West Coast… how on EARTH did they nearly beat Adelaide?! It’s not like they were putting their best possible team out on the park either! Truly bizarre how four of their best performances of the year have come against Brisbane (away), Adelaide, Geelong and Collingwood (away), arguably the four best teams in it.