This should have been a good week for Sir Keir Starmer. His Government had overseen a near 50 per cent drop in net immigration, inflation dipped below 3 per cent and his beloved Arsenal secured their first league title in 22 years.
Instead, the starting gun was fired in the race to replace him as prime minister and Labour leader.
On Friday, Andy Burnham kicked off his by-election campaign in Makerfield proclaiming that British politics was “tired” and in need of a “new script” as he set out a vision that went far beyond the confines of the Wigan constituency.
“A vote for me in this by-election is a vote to change Labour,” he told supporters in a direct challenge to the Prime Minister.
It came just days after Wes Streeting sketched out the beginnings of his own policy platform for No 10, arguing for a new “wealth tax” that would more closely align capital gains tax with income tax.
The early jostling between the two potential leadership rivals came as the Prime Minister launched a policy blitz of his own in an attempt to show voters and MPs that his Government was delivering for the country.
A £1bn investment for PE in schools, plans to crack down on violence against women and girls, a “neighbourhood guarantee” to boost local areas and a major £1.8bn cost of living package to help families over the summer were all announced in the last five days.
The carpet bombing of Government announcements was choreographed, coming at a time when both Burnham and Streeting were setting out their stalls, Government sources said.
“A lot of it was already in the works, but the co-ordination is quite deliberate,” the insider said.
Another Cabinet source said it showed why MPs should stay the course. “I would gently suggest to the PLP [Parliamentary Labour Party], journalists and others that it shows the benefits of consistency and also Starmer and [Rachel] Reeves’s work,” they said.
“The economy is outperforming expectations and revised upwards this year, inflation is down, NHS waiting lists hitting the lowest level in three and a half years and net migration dropping to 171,000.”
But few within the party believe such achievements will stave off the twin threat coming from Burnham and Streeting.
PM will ‘look at the numbers’ before deciding whether to fight leadership challenge
According to his allies, Starmer has privately conceded he may not fight a leadership challenge should Burnham win the Makerfield by-election.
The Prime Minister will “look at the numbers” before deciding whether or not to enter a leadership contest and will only do so “if he thinks he can win”, one confidante said.
It is a subtle but distinctive shift in the briefing around the Prime Minister, whose allies until now have been saying that come what may he will fight on.
Some are even interpreting it as a tacit admission that if Burnham succeeds in Makerfield, Starmer knows his days are numbered.
Greater Manchester Mayor and Labour candidate Andy Burnham during his campaign launch for the Makerfield by-election on Friday (Photo: Temilade Adelaja/Reuters)
Last week, saw a series of briefings suggesting the Prime Minister could seek to stay on until Christmas in order to secure an orderly transition. Alex Sobel, the PM’s trade envoy to Ukraine, went as far as to suggest that Burnham could spend a spell in his Cabinet before taking over the premiership. This has been dismissed by most as fanciful thinking.
A senior party insider said: “What’s the point of [Burnham] doing all this to be a middle ranking Cabinet minister as he was pre 2010?
“The Labour movement is pushing him forward, and he says he’s coming to Westminster to change things. I don’t see him pulling back.”
‘Keir is done now’
Meanwhile, one Streeting supporter said: “Keir is done now. He won’t be leader after [the Labour Party] conference.”
The MP said that even backbenchers that were deemed to be Starmer loyalists had now come to the conclusion that the Prime Minister’s position is “untenable”.
“There were people who signed the statement in support of the PM [last week] only to be calling for him to go later on that day,” they added.
There were claims during the week that should Burnham see off the threat of Reform UK in the by-election then Streeting would stand aside to allow a coronation in return for a job in the Cabinet.
But this was rejected out of hand by the former health secretary’s camp. “It doesn’t sound like the Wes we’ve seen this week,” one insider said. Another member of his team insisted that he intends to contest any leadership race.
Wes Streeting giving his resignation speech in the Commons earlier this week after quitting as health secretary and calling on Sir Keir Starmer to step down (Photo: House of Commons/UK Parliament/PA)
The beauty parade of high-profile MPs and Cabinet members jockeying for a position in Burnham’s new Cabinet has left many backbenchers unimpressed.
“Part of the problem the current PM has is that he has people in the Cabinet who simply have not delivered,” one exasperated MP said this week.
“We need a rethink because if the current Cabinet is just recycled we are not going to deliver the change the country needs.”
Jitters over Burnham’s support for immigration reforms
There are also the first signs of concern among Burnham’s supporters over his apparent backing for the Government’s immigration reforms, which would see legal migrants forced to wait up to 20 years for settled status.
“I don’t like it,” was the verdict of one MP on the left of the party. “I want it dropped.”
Indeed, MPs hoping for a quick, painless leadership battle are likely to be disappointed. Members of the Socialist Campaign Group of MPs, those on the furthest left of the party, have indicated they will stand a candidate in any leadership contest.
“It’s important we have an open contest that includes candidates from across the party’s political spectrum, and time for that to happen,” one member of the group told The i Paper. “This means months not weeks.”
The comments signal a recognition from Labour MPs at least that they will only get one roll of the dice when it comes to changing leader.
“The public will hate this for a bit but will react to strong leadership – as will the markets,” one MP claimed, before adding: “If we become a regicide by default party, we are absolutely f**ked.”