Their fans had all but given up hope but St George Illawarra and Wests Tigers are somehow still in the NRL finals race with four rounds remaining.

The Dragons kept themselves in mathematical range with their boilover win over the Sharks at Kogarah on Saturday while the Tigers, rested after a bye, can potentially also move to just one win off eighth spot on the NRL ladder if they knock over the Sea Eagles this weekend.

Whoever loses between Manly and the Tigers can forget about finals prospects, mathematical, realistic or otherwise.

The Dragons head to Auckland looking for a third straight upset win over the slumping Warriors while also hoping the Roosters go down to the Bulldogs and the Dolphins are unable to get the better of the Broncos in their battle of Brisbane.

Team by team, here’s how each team is shaping up heading into the final four weeks of the regular season. 

The run home for each team1. Canberra (38 points, 17-4 record, +168 differential)  

Run home: bye, Panthers (away) Tigers (home) Dolphins (away) 

They showed their loss to the Dragons was just a blip on the radar by mauling Manly.

With a bye this week, unless injuries strike in the run home, the Raiders should hang on to claim their first minor premiership since Bob Hawke was Prime Minister way back in 1990.

Predicted finish: 1st

2. Melbourne (36 points, 15-5 record, +248 differential)  

Run home: Panthers (away) Bulldogs (home) Roosters (home) Broncos (away)

The run home is littered with four big guns – even with Jahrome Hughes out, they are continuing to rack up the Ws but they will likely drop a game or two in the final month of the regular season.

Predicted finish: 2nd

3. Canterbury (36 points, 15-5 record, +140 differential)  

Run home: Roosters (away) Storm (away) Panthers (home) Sharks (home) 

Another team with a tricky finish to the regular season so their chances of rising back up to secure a top-two berth are not looking great.

Predicted finish: 3rd 

SYDNEY, AUSTRALIA - JULY 27: Bronson Xerri of the Bulldogs scores a try during the round 21 NRL match between Canterbury Bulldogs and the Manly Warringah Sea Eagles at Allianz Stadium, on July 27, 2025, in Sydney, Australia. (Photo by Jeremy Ng/Getty Images)

Bronson Xerri scores a try. (Photo by Jeremy Ng/Getty Images)

4. Penrith (31 points, 12-1-7 record, +119 differential)  

Run home: Storm (home) Raiders (home) Bulldogs (away) Dragons (away) 

They have extended their win streak to nine after toppling the Knights but now they face a three-game stretch of Melbourne, Canberra and Canterbury which will define their season.

The premiers have done well to claw their way up the ladder from last but the cumulative effect of Origin and the energy they’ve spent to get this high could catch up with them. 

Predicted finish: 4th

5. Warriors (30 points, 12-8 record, +8 differential)  

Run home: Dragons (home) Titans (away) Eels (home) Sea Eagles (away) 

They have relinquished fourth spot after the season-ending injuries to Mitch Barnett and Luke Metcalf and their prospects are looking grim now that they have dropped three on the trot to the Titans, Dolphins and Dogs.

This Saturday’s road trip against Canterbury is their final clash with a top-eight team on the schedule but based on current form, they are going to drop a rung or two.

Predicted finish: 6th

BRISBANE, AUSTRALIA - JUNE 08: Ezra Mam of the Broncos looks to pass during the warm up before the round 14 NRL match between Brisbane Broncos and Cronulla Sharks at Suncorp Stadium, on June 08, 2024, in Brisbane, Australia. (Photo by Bradley Kanaris/Getty Images)

Ezra Mam looks to pass. (Photo by Bradley Kanaris/Getty Images)

6. Broncos (28 points, 11-9 record, +104 differential)  

Run home: Dolphins (home) Knights (away) Cowboys (away) Storm (home)  

The triple blow of Adam Reynolds, Ezra Mam and Selwyn Cobbo suffering hamstring injuries means Brisbane will likely to go straight into sudden death in the finals.

They have now lost to the Storm in 17 of their past 18 encounters and have to face them again in the final round.

Predicted finish: 7th

7. Cronulla (28 points, 12-9 record, +35 differential)  

Run home: Titans (home) bye, Knights (home) Bulldogs (away)

It’s a powder puff run home for the Sharks – they have two easybeats either side of the bye before tackling the Bulldogs in the final round.

As they have shown in recent seasons, they can put away the dud teams, it’s the better-quality ones they meet in the finals that cause them trouble.

The loss to the Dragons means they will probably now end up fifth, missing a golden chance to secure a top-four spot.

Predicted finish: 5th

8. Dolphins (26 points, 10-10 record, +119 differential)  

Run home: Broncos (away) Sea Eagles (away) Titans (home) Raiders (home) 

The NRL’s newest franchise is still has destiny in their hands in their run home but after their 52-point drubbing at the hands of the Roosters, doubts are growing about whether they can hang on.

They need to jag an upset when they take on the Broncos or Raiders to be assured of a maiden post-season run.

Predicted finish: 9th

9. Roosters (26 points, 10-10 record, +72 differential)  BRISBANE, AUSTRALIA - AUGUST 9: Naufahu Whyte (left) of Roosters and Aublix Tawha of Dolphins tangle during the round 23 NRL match between Dolphins and Sydney Roosters at Suncorp Stadium, on August 9, 2025, in Brisbane, Australia. (Photo by Regi Varghese/Getty Images)

Naufahu Whyte and Aublix Tawha tangle. (Photo by Regi Varghese/Getty Images)

Run home: Bulldogs (home) Eels (away) Storm (away) Rabbitohs (home) 

With two more finals contenders on their slate, the Roosters are no sure things to snare a top-eight berth even with Sam Walker starting to fire after a slow start to his comeback from knee surgery.

The Dolphins demolition will probably prove decisive although if for and against comes into the final equation, they still have plenty of ground to make up.

Predicted finish: 8th

10. Manly (24 points, 9-11 record, -10 differential)  

Run home: Tigers (away) Dolphins (home) Dragons (away) Warriors (home) 

Their finals chances are dwindling and all but gone after getting caned by Canterbury, the Roosters and Raiders.

Anthony Seibold could be cleaning out his desk by season’s end if the Sea Eagles fade out of finals contention.

Predicted finish: 10th

11. St George Illawarra (22 points, 8-12 record, -50 differential)  

Run home: Warriors (away) Rabbitohs (away) Sea Eagles (home) Panthers (home) 

Their playoff chances are not yet officially over after getting the better of the Raiders and then upsetting the Sharks.

Shane Flanagan’s side needs to win all four of their final fixtures and hope a host of other results go their way. St George Illawarra fans can dare to dream but it’s pretty unlikely to happen.

Predicted finish: 12th 

12. Wests Tigers (22 points, 8-12 record, -121 differential)  

Run home: Sea Eagles (home) Cowboys (home) Raiders (away) Titans (away)  

It would be so Wests Tigers for them to finish the season with a mini resurgence – not enough to get near the finals but enough to breed some sort of optimism.

They were fired up to beat the Bulldogs in their grudge match in their last-start win before the bye and with a healthy squad and a decent run home, they should end up as the best of the rest in the group of teams that were never truly in the finals hunt.

Predicted finish: 11th

15. Parramatta (20 points, 7-13 record, -152 differential)  

Run home: Rabbitohs (away) Roosters (home) Warriors (away) Knights (home) 

Of the teams guaranteed to miss the finals, the Eels will be the happiest with their 2025 campaign.

New coach Jason Ryles has uncovered plenty of young talent and with Dylan Brown following a host of experienced fading stars out the blue and gold exit, they are well set up for not just next year but the rest of this decade while Mitchell Moses is running the show in the No.7 jersey.

They were lucky to get past the Cowboys on the weekend but the new era at Parra is starting to bear fruit.

Predicted finish: 13th

14. North Qld (19 points, 7-1-13 record, -176 differential)  

Run home: Knights (home) Tigers (away) Broncos (home) bye

Everything is going pear-shaped pretty quickly at this club with Todd Payten on shaky ground in the tropics. 

Their effort against the Eels was much better than their embarrassing Sharks capitulation the previous week but their recent form is the kind that prompts CEOs to tap coaches on the shoulder.

Predicted finish: 14th

15. Newcastle (18 points, 6-14 record, -152 differential)  

Run home: Cowboys (away) Broncos (home) Sharks (away) Eels (away)  

Teetering on the brink of an overdue overhaul in the coaching staff and roster.

The Knights are still showing plenty of spirit but are sinking further into the abyss on the back of five straight defeats. 

Predicted finish: 17th

Latrell Mitchell of the Rabbitohs tackles Jayden Campbell. (Photo by Chris Hyde/Getty Images)

16. South Sydney (18 points, 7-14 record, -195 differential)  

Run home: Eels (home) Dragons (home) bye, Roosters (away)

Wayne Bennett’s hopes of avoiding the first wooden spoon of his career got a much-needed shot in the arm with their narrow win over the Titans but they are still not quite out of the woods.

Injuries have been a major factor in the team never really getting going in 2025 but it cannot be ignored that after finishing 16th last year, they will end up somewhere similar for a second straight season.

Predicted finish: 15th

17. Gold Coast (16 points, 5-15 record, -155 differential)  

Run home: Sharks (away) Warriors (home) Dolphins (away) Tigers (home) 

It’s hard to see Newcastle winning again so the Titans have to conjure up an upset in the closing weeks to relocate the wooden spoon’s location for 2025.

Des Hasler looks like he will get the punt but his team is showing some fight and still playing for him.

Predicted finish: 16th