In January, Turkey was Nato’s most exposed nation as a neighbour of Iran, desperately trying to stay out of the war, even as Iranian missiles buzzed through its airspace, thought to be targeting the joint US-Turkish base on the Mediterranean coast.
But come early July, when Mr Erdoğan hosts a major summit of the security alliance, he will be speaking from a position of strength, and with leverage over many nations that he did not enjoy before the Iran war broke out.
Ms Tol added: “There was a time when Nato was framed as a defence organisation for the democratic world; one cannot really say that any more.
“These countries – Western countries, Nato allies – will be paying less and less attention to democratic erosion and autocratic consolidation in countries like Turkey and focus on the technical stuff – can they produce drones, do they have a good manufacturing base?”
But experts say that would be a mistake.
She said: “When you work with autocrats, on the top of their mind is always regime survival. If the regime is at risk, then they’re not bound by international treaties; they won’t be loyal to you. That’s what makes them unstable allies.”