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In first, polls show Eisenkot’s Yashar polling even with Bennett-led Together alliance

Former IDF chief Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar party would win as many seats as ex-premier Naftali Bennett’s Together alliance with Yesh Atid if elections were held today, the first time the two opposition factions have polled evenly, according to a pair of new opinion surveys.

According to the survey published by Zman Yisrael, The Times of Israel’s sister site, both Yashar and Together would pick up 21 Knesset seats, trailing Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud, which was the largest party in the poll with 24 seats.

The next largest faction is former senior minister Avigdor Liberman’s secularist Yisrael Beytenu party with 10 seats, same as the Netanyahu-aligned ultra-Orthodox Shas party. Three parties have 8 seats: The Democrats led by Yair Golan, Ashkenazi Haredi United Torah Judaism and National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir’s ultranationalist Otzma Yehudit.

The Islamist Ra’am party and Hadash-Ta’al are the remaining parties that cleared the electoral threshold in the poll, with 5 seats apiece.

Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich’s far-right Religious Zionism, Benny Gantz’s Blue and White, the Reservists and Balad would all fail to enter the Knesset, though the latter is expected to run on a joint Arab slate with Hadash-Ta’al that doesn’t include Ra’am.

Combined, factions opposed to Netanyahu would have 60 seats without Ra’am or Hadash-Ta’al, one short of a majority.

The survey also asked respondents how they would vote if Hadash-Ta’al and Balad run as the Joint List, Otzma Yehudit and Religious Zionism again team up for elections and Gantz adds former senior general Dedi Semhi to Blue and White.

The seat tally is as follows: Likud 23, Together 19, Yashar 19, Joint List 9, Otzma Yehudit-Religious Zionism 9, Yisrael Beytenu 9, Shas 9, UTJ 9, The Democrats 7, Ra’am 4 and Blue and White with Demi Semhi 4.

That outcome would bring Zionist opposition parties opposed to Netanyahu down to 54 seats, not including Gantz and Semhi, while Arab majority factions would together have 13 seats and the Netanyahu-led bloc 49.

The Zman Yisrael survey was conducted by Tatika Research and Media in collaboration with the Adgenda panel and made up of 500 Jewish and Arab respondents, with a 4.4% margin of error.

A separate poll aired by Channel 12 news had Yashar and Together at 20 seats, trailing Likud at 22, followed by The Democrats at 11, Otzma Yehudit at 9, Shas at 9, Yisrael Beytenu at 8, UTJ at 7, Hadash-Ta’al at 5, Ra’am at 5 and Religious Zionism at 4.

With those seat totals, parties opposed to Netanyahu would have 59 seats without Hadash-Ta’al and Ra’am, short of a majority, and would fall to 58 seats if Hadash-Ta’al reunite with Balad and Semhi joins Blue and White.

The Channel 12 survey was performed by Manu Geva’s Midgam firm, together with iPanel. The poll included 501 participants and has a 4.4% margin of error.