Let’s be honest for a moment. No slogans. No campaign ads. No Facebook comments section. No uncle from Ra’anana explaining American politics to everyone within earshot. Just us talking here.

Here’s a simple question:

Wouldn’t a lot of Israelis trade Donald Trump for a Democrat president right now?

I know. I know. The very suggestion sounds crazy to Israeli ears.

For years, Israeli politics has treated American politics like the two football teams from Haifa where I live. More than half the city buys season tickets for the “Republican” side, Maccabi Haifa. They are the succesful team that wins championships. “Democrats,” or Hapoel Haifa, the team I’ve supported since I was a small child, barely attract fans to their games. In other words, “losers.”

Thus the democrats of America became for Israelis, the party of uncomfortable conversations, stern lectures, and resolutions expressing concern. Republicans became the party of unwavering support, standing ovations, and enough Israeli flags to stock an Independence Day parade. In other words, a “winner.”

Then reality showed up. You know, reality has a nasty habit of ignoring political narratives.

Many Israelis spent years explaining to American Jews (who support the Democratic party in large numbers), that Trump was the greatest friend Israel ever had. To be fair, they had “evidence.” After all, the US Embassy moved to Jerusalem. The Abraham Accords were signed. The Golan Heights received recognition from the United States as belonging to Israel.

For many Israelis, these were tangible achievements that previous administrations had either delayed or avoided altogether.  They also thought that as Trump replaced Biden in the White House, the “shackles” they felt placed on Israel in the wake of the October 7 war in Gaza, would be lifted and Israel would be free to act as it pleased. Then came the war with Iran.

Somewhere along the way, we confused friendship with alignment. It turns out that the United States has interests. It turns out that Israel has interests.

Sometimes they overlap perfectly. Sometimes they don’t.

When they don’t, American presidents–Republican or Democrat–tend to remember which country they were elected to represent.

Who knew?

Apparently not many in Israel.

The shock many Israelis experienced with the announcement that the United States and Iran have reached a Memorandum of Understanding, keeping Israel pretty much out of the picture, wasn’t really about policy. It was about expectations. Trump wasn’t supposed to behave like that. He wasn’t supposed to tell Israel, “DON’T.” He wasn’t supposed to negotiate arrangements that Israelis disliked. He wasn’t supposed to remind us that “America First” literally means America first. Hey, wasn’t he the president that almost received Israel’s most prestigious award this year?

Yet, Here We Are

Suddenly, Israelis are discovering the fine print of the US-Israel relationship.

It turns out that when someone says America First, Israel might occasionally come second. Or third. Or maybe not place at all.

Somewhere after gasoline prices, trade policy, pressure from Gulf States, and whatever happens to be trending on social media that week, has created one of the strangest political moments in recent Israeli memory.

Privately, many Israelis who spent years criticizing Democratic presidents are now sounding suspiciously nostalgic.

They miss predictability. They miss alliances built on institutions rather than personalities. They miss knowing that American policy might survive a news cycle. They miss diplomacy.

Some even miss those irritating Democratic speeches about democracy. At least you knew they were coming. The irony is almost painful.

For years, Israelis accused Democrats of being unreliable because they occasionally criticized Israeli governments and they pushed Israel towards recognizing some uncomfortable truths, like the need to resolve the Israeli-Palestinian issue once and for all.

Now some Israelis are discovering that criticism and abandonment are not necessarily the same thing.

A president can criticize Israel and still support it (a.k.a Barack Obama and Joe Biden).

A president can praise Israel and still pursue policies that Israelis dislike (a.k.a Barack Obama and Joe Biden).

The two things are not mutually exclusive.

What Do Israelis Expect

The truth is that Israelis have always wanted two contradictory things from Washington.

They want unconditional support. They also want American presidents to place Israeli interests at the center of their decision-making.

There is only one problem. American voters never agreed to that arrangement.

Whether the president is named Biden, Obama, Trump, Clinton, Bush, or whoever comes next, the fundamental reality remains unchanged: American presidents serve American interests.

Sometimes that benefits Israel enormously. Sometimes it creates friction.

The mature question is not whether Republicans or Democrats love Israel more. The mature question is whether Israel has become too dependent on the idea that one party will always save them from the other.

Perhaps the greatest lesson is that Israel cannot afford partisan fantasies. Republicans are not Israel’s insurance policy. Democrats are not Israel’s permanent adversary.

Both parties are changing. Both coalitions are evolving. And both increasingly contain voices that view the US-Israel relationship through the lens of American domestic priorities rather than old assumptions.

Which brings us back to the original question.

Would Israelis Trade Trump for a Democrat President?

Publicly? Probably not. Privately? The answer is likely more complicated than many would care to admit.

But perhaps that is the wrong question entirely.

The real question is why Israelis keep searching for a political savior in Washington.

Every few years they convince themselves that one American politician finally “gets” Israel. That this president, unlike all others, will place Israel’s interests alongside America’s own.

The disappointment many Israelis feel today is not really about Donald Trump. On second thought, yes, it is! It is also about the collapse of a fantasy. That there is a political party in America whose support for Israel is automatic, unconditional, and immune to changing circumstances.

News Flash! There isn’t. And there never was.

The lesson of this moment is not that Israelis should love Democrats. Nor is it that Republicans have somehow become anti-Israel. The lesson is that Israel’s long-term security depends less on who occupies the Oval Office and more on whether Israel remains a cause that the American People of all political persuasions, believe is worth supporting.

For decades, Israel enjoyed the rare privilege of being larger than partisan politics. Today that privilege is slipping away.

If Israelis emerge from this period believing that their future lies in finding a better Republican or a friendlier Democrat, they’ve learned nothing.

If, however, they recognize that Israel must rebuild trust with Americans across the political spectrum – young and old, liberal and conservative, Democrat and Republican – then perhaps this disappointment will have served a purpose.  This comes with a price, and the question is: Are Israelis willing to pay it?

Because the uncomfortable truth is that presidents change. Parties change. Political coalitions change.

But a country that becomes dependent on one side of America’s political divide eventually discovers what Israelis are discovering today:

When your favorite politician disappoints you, you are left with no backup plan. That is a far more dangerous place for Israel than having to choose between a Republican and a Democrat.