Jake’s Predictions 24/25: P/L +75.06pts | ROI 13.3% | Staked 562.50pts | Returned 637.56pts

Football betting tips: Premier League

Friday – Liverpool vs Bournemouth 20:00

1pt Alex Scott to be carded at 9/4 (Sky Bet)

Saturday – Aston Villa vs Newcastle 12:30

1.5pt Joelinton to be carded at 2/1 (Sky Bet, Paddy Power, Betfair)

Saturday 15:00

2pts Under 2.5 goals in Sunderland vs West Ham at 10/11 (General)

Saturday 17:30 and Sunday’s games to follow…

It’s been a longer summer than usual without top quality football, but we are thankfully back in action this weekend.

The Premier League returns with the usual amount of intrigue and anticipation after a big summer spending spree from clubs up and down the division.

We will hopefully see a much closer title race this time around after Liverpool cantered to victory, while we can also hope for one of the newly-promoted sides actually making a fist of things. I mean, it’d be great if one of them even got to 30 points…

Last season this column finished in healthy profit, and the dream would be to follow it up with another season in the green, and we will certainly try our best.

The opening weeks of the season are generally low-stake from me with so much uncertainty around players and teams so I’ve only a handful of selections for opening weekend.

Liverpool vs Bournemouth

The season starts at Anfield, where the champions host a depleted Bournemouth. Liverpool are short favourites to win the game, and understandably so given the Cherries have lost four of their back five from last season.

On top of that, Andoni Iraola’s side are without Lewis Cook, Enes Unal, Ryan Christie, Luis Sinisterra and Justin Kluivert through injury. They are light on numbers, but will continue to play in their front-foot, high-pressing style, making a lot of fouls in the process.

If anything they will be even more aggressive in a bid to slow their hosts down and protect a weakened defence, so I’ll chance a player card to open the campaign, with ALEX SCOTT the bet TO BE CARDED at 9/4.

The Englishman was cautioned three times in limited minutes last season, an average of 0.36 cards per 90, and followed that into the summer’s U21 Euros, being carded twice (0.51 per 90).

He’s young, can be overzealous, and should start from the off given Bournemouth’s selection issues. Averaging 2.04 fouls per 90 last term, he could have his name taken, especially as he’ll be tasked with tracking Alexis Mac Allister, Dominik Szoboszlai and new boy Florian Wirtz.

Our good friend Anthony Taylor is the man with the whistle which at first was a tad off-putting for a card bet, but the way in which he finished the season at the Club World Cup was emphatic, flashing seven, five and four – with the latter featuring two reds.

Score prediction: Liverpool 3-1 Bournemouth (Sky Bet odds: 17/2)

Aston Villa vs Newcastle

Goal difference was the margin by which Newcastle qualified for the Champions League over Aston Villa, but given the off-field issues at St James’ with the Alexander Isak situation, and the continuity at Villa, you’d have to lean towards the latter in a season-long match bet.

In terms of this game, a home win nearly made the staking plan at 13/10 (Ladbrokes) given how much of a fortress Villa Park has been under Unai Emery in the league (W32 D12 L7). They finished last term on a 21-game unbeaten run in all competitions at Villa Park too, winning 15 of those.

But I’ve instead opted for JOELINTON TO BE CARDED as the best bet. The Brazilian was carded 10 times in 29 league appearances last season (0.37 per 90) and six times in 20 the season prior (0.42 per 90), so is a bit of a magnet for yellows.

He was booked in both matches against Aston Villa last season, seemingly being caught out by the match-up against the top flight’s best card (2.82 per game) and foul drawers (13.1).

The pleasing thing for this bet is that Joelinton started very fast in the card collection race, picking up four yellows in his first six games, before cooling off and controlling himself to avoid a early one-game suspension, picking up just one in the following 10.

He could start the campaign in reckless manner again, and with Craig Pawson on the whistle, his 2/1 price to be carded looks a cracker.

Score prediction: Aston Villa 2-0 Newcastle (Sky Bet odds: 11/1)

Brighton vs Fulham

Brighton and Fulham are teams I struggled to get a handle on last season. The Seagulls struggled to put teams away when playing at the Amex, winning just eight of 19 last season, while the Cottagers had a solid record against last season’s top eight, posting a W7 D2 L7 record.

It’s a no bet here.

Score prediction: Brighton 2-1 Fulham (Sky Bet odds: 7/1)

Sunderland vs West Ham

Sunderland make their return to the top flight with a winnable looking game against West Ham, but I think UNDER 2.5 GOALS is the bet at near even money.

The Black Cats will be wanting to keep things tight in this first game, and will fancy their chances of stifling a very ordinary Hammers attack.

11 of Graham Potter’s first 16 league games as boss went under 2.5, which is no surprise given they averaged 1.06 xGF and 1.45 xGA per game, with that attacking figure only better than the three relegated sides.

Jarrod Bowen is their talisman, but other than him, it’s hard to see where the chances and goals are coming from given Mohammed Kudus’ departure and Callum Wilson’s questionable injury record.

Defensively they will be tough to break down though and Sunderland’s attacking options fail to inspire, so one goal could decide this.

Score prediction: Sunderland 1-1 West Ham (Sky Bet odds: 11/2)

Tottenham vs Burnley

Tottenham were back to being Spursy in midweek, leading 2-0 against PSG and in total control only to concede two very late goals and lose the UEFA Super Cup on penalties. The performance was good for the most part, but you have to see that game out.

They return to these shores to host newly promoted Burnley in a game that should be straightforward, as a win price of 2/5 suggests.

Thomas Frank’s Brentford side were flat-track bullies against the newly promoted sides over the last few seasons, winning 10 of 12 matches and scoring a whopping 35 goals in the process, so if he carries that over to his new job then the Clarets could be in for a hiding.

But it’s a watching brief for me, as we don’t know how Spurs will shape up after their midweek exploits, and whether they’ll have the guile to open up a very deep Burnley block, though both teams to score ‘no’ nearly made the plan (10/11).

Score prediction: Tottenham 2-0 Burnley (Sky Bet odds: 11/2)

Odds correct at 1510 BST (14/08/25)

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