This week President Trump proudly proclaimed that the war is over. Trump said we were able to get the Port of Hormuz open and Iran agreed to drop hostilities. Importantly, the high price of gas and related goods will go down. But a closer look at the agreement leaves concerns. After a brief analysis, I will list some of the key points in the memorandum of agreement.
ANALYSIS: In reality Trump had no other choice but to seek an agreement with Iran in order to get oil flowing again so that the price of oil and goods would drop quickly. This was necessary to give Americans needed relief of high costs.
Jim Fouts
Lessons learned for Trump: As Truman said over 80 years ago or so ” a man cannot be his own mentor.” In this case Trump listened to Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu and decided to launch a surprise attack on the Iranian leaders in the middle of peace negotiations. He did not seek the advice of U.S. military leaders nor did he listen to others voicing concerns. Now many members of Trump’s party are very critical of the MOU. It also is important not to act impulsively.
Lesson Learned for Netanyahu: Be careful what you wish for. He finally was able to convince one U.S. President that a surprise bombing attack on Iran would destroy the current regime and lead to a pro-Israeli government. Now there is a more militant and a more dangerous regime than before. Trump is angry with Netanyahu and JD Vance said that Israel should be careful because the U.S. is Israel’s only friend and we may not be supportive anymore in the future. Netanyahu’s cabinet and public opinion in Israel are very critical of him too. He may have lost significant Israeli public support as well.
Note: Having the agreement signed in Versailles is not a good choice, since it was the Versailles 1919 agreement after World War I that led to the main causes of World War II.
Concern #1 Weapons of mass destruction Trump’s purpose for going to war.
Iran did not agree in the memorandum to destroy its current arsenal of high grade uranium nor did they promise not to begin production of new high grades uranium. Iran agreed only to partake in discussions for the next 60 days on this issue. No promises were made and recently, in a press release the new Ayatollah stated “we are NOT committed to carrying out any request by the enemy” ( meaning the U.S. ).
Concern # 2 Trump’s statement about allowing Iran to have missiles.
Trump indicated late this week he has no concern or opposition to Iran having missiles. Trump stated “That if other countries have them then, it’s a little unfair for them not to have some.” Trump’s previous statements had vowed to prevent Iran from having any missiles capable of mass destruction.
Concern #3: The U.S. will raise $300 billion for Iran reconstruction.
This contradicts Trump’s statements that there would no pay out like when Obama committed in the earlier agreement to give them $14 billion. This is much larger and will allow Iran to prosper and grow and there is no agreement that the $300 billion will be used for reconstruction when it’s likely to be used for missiles, nuclear enrichment to make bombs, and more control over its people. This contradicts the goal of regime change as this large amount of money will make the regime much stronger. All sanctions will be eliminated against Iran, most likely generating additional hundreds of millions of dollars.
Concern # 4 All assets of Iran will be unfrozen by the U.S. treasury and other countries
This is likely to give Iran additional billions of dollars. Thus strengthening the Revolutionary government even more. It makes it more difficult to change the regime and less likely the people will revolt.
Concern # 5: This undermines Israel and makes their strongest opponent even more powerful and more dangerous.
Bottom Line: It’s great that there is no longer a war between the U.S. and Iran.
It’s equally great oil will begin flowing and the rising price of gas and goods will drop. The purpose of going to war with Iran and the cost involved makes one wonder whether this was worth it or not? It also demonstrates President Trump is flexible and deeply sensitive to the needs of Americans regarding out-of- control prices. His decision was based in the short run on what was best for the world economy. Not so much what was best for world peace in the long run.
Woodrow Wilson once said “I’d rather fail at what I know will ultimately succeed then to succeed at what I know will ultimately fail.”
What do you think?
Jim Fouts is the former Warren Mayor, a member of city council and a retired Warren Consolidated Schools government and history teacher.