Max Holloway believes this weekend’s main event is closer than the odds suggest.

On Saturday, Dricus du Plessis defends his middleweight title against Khamzat Chimaev in the main event of UFC 319. It’s one of the most anticipated fights of the year, and the rare title fight where the challenger is a sizable betting favorite over the champion, coming in as high as -260 in some places (suggesting a 72% win probability). And Holloway thinks those odds are a little too long for the reigning champ.

“I like both guys,” Holloway said on his YouTube channel. “Both guys are awesome. This is crazy. I understand why, but this is crazy. The champion — especially with who the champion beat — is an underdog. It’s kinda crazy. The reason why he is, I understand who Chimaev is.

“The one biggest thing that I can point out that I hope this fight du Plessis watched was the fight that Chimaev fought Kamaru Usman. If you watch that fight — not many people are going to pick up on this, but here’s a little spoiler for you guys — every time Kamaru Usman decided to anti-wrestle and not wrestle back with Chimaev, he actually defended a takedown. Go watch. Go watch all the takedowns that Kamaru Usman defended. It was takedowns that he didn’t try to counter-wrestle with him, he just anti-wrestled, meaning he was just trying to go for full breaks and that’s it. He had great success when he wasn’t trying to counter back. …

“Any time Usman did try to wrestle back with him, guess who won the exchange? You guessed it right, Chimaev. if du Plessis took anything — I saw his coach saying they want to take the wrestling to him, that’s not the way you’re going to beat him. This guy is just going to wrestle back with you. You need to anti-wrestle. Then, maybe later on, you wrestle back.”

Chimaev burst onto the UFC in 2020, winning three fights in a matter of weeks and looking for all the world like a future champion. However, injuries and other issues interfered and while he never lost in the cage, it took “Borz” several years to finally get his first title shot.

In contrast, du Plessis made his UFC debut just three months after Chimaev and steadily worked his way up the rankings, winning the title last year. He’s since defended it twice and is quickly building a legacy as one of the greatest middleweights of all-time, with wins over Sean Strickland, Robert Whittaker, and Israel Adesanya, which is why Holloway thinks he’s getting a bit overlooked here.

“It is so hard to pick,” Holloway said. “You can’t disrespect the champion, that’s why. Look at who he beat. He beat a who’s who. Then you look on the opposite side with Chimaev, look what he did. He’s convincing the shit out of everybody when he wins his fights. It’s so hard. … I understand why you’re disrespecting the champ, but I feel like you shouldn’t. I feel like it should be [even odds] both ways.”

But even though he believes du Plessis is getting short shrift here, when push comes to shove, Holloway does believe we are going to hear “And new” come Saturday night.

“The degen gambler in me would go du Plessis, but my mind is going Chimaev,” Holloway said. “And the whole thing with Chimaev that I’m really trying to know in this one is if his cardio is there. … So at the end of the day, I’m not going to pick anybody in the main event. But if it’s a finish, I think it’s Khamzat, and if it goes four rounds or more, I think du Plessis wins a decision or late finish. But three rounds and under, I think it’s a Khamzat fight.”

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Losing. Dricus du Plessis questions how Khamzat Chimaev will handle first loss after UFC 319 is over.

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Off. TUF 33 finale fight scrapped from UFC 319, bout expected to be rescheduled.

Hopes. Reinier de Ridder wants Dricus du Plessis to beat Khamzat Chimaev at UFC 319.

MVP on Anything but Fighting.

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