Crippa, M. et al. Food systems are responsible for a third of global anthropogenic GHG emissions. Nat. Food 2, 198–209 (2021).
Springmann, M. et al. Options for keeping the food system within environmental limits. Nature 562, 519–525 (2018).
te Wierik, S. et al. Identifying the safe operating space for food systems. Nat. Food 6, 1153–1163 (2025).
GBD 2019 Risk Factors Collaborators. Global burden of 87 risk factors in 204 countries and territories, 1990–2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. Lancet 396, 1223–1249 (2020).
SSP Scenario Explorer version 3.0.1. IIASA https://data.ece.iiasa.ac.at/ssp (2024).
Rockstrom, J. et al. The EAT–Lancet Commission on healthy, sustainable, and just food systems, Lancet 406, 1625–1700 (2025).
Fanzo, J. et al. Viewpoint: rigorous monitoring is necessary to guide food system transformation in the countdown to the 2030 global goals. Food Policy 104, 102163 (2021).
Webb, P. et al. The urgency of food system transformation is now irrefutable. Nat. Food 1, 584–585 (2020).
HLPE. Nutrition and Food Systems HLPE Report 12 https://openknowledge.fao.org/handle/20.500.14283/i7846e (FAO, 2017).
Campbell, B. M. et al. Agriculture production as a major driver of the Earth system exceeding planetary boundaries. Ecol. Soc. 22, 8 (2017).
Singh, B. K. et al. Enhancing science–policy interfaces for food systems transformation. Nat. Food 2, 838–842 (2021).
Willett, W. et al. Food in the Anthropocene: the EAT–Lancet Commission on healthy diets from sustainable food systems. Lancet 393, 447–492 (2019).
Stehfest, E. et al. Key determinants of global land-use projections. Nat. Commun. 10, 2166 (2019).
van Vuuren, D. P. et al. Exploring pathways for world development within planetary boundaries. Nature 641, 910–916 (2025).
Popp, A. et al. Land-use futures in the shared socio-economic pathways. Glob. Environ. Change 42, 331–345 (2017).
Fujimori, S. et al. Land-based climate change mitigation measures can affect agricultural markets and food security. Nat. Food 3, 110–121 (2022).
Patterson, J. et al. Exploring the governance and politics of transformations towards sustainability. Environ. Innov. Soc. Trans. 24, 1–16 (2017).
Springmann, M. et al. Health and nutritional aspects of sustainable diet strategies and their association with environmental impacts: a global modelling analysis with country-level detail. Lancet Planet. Health 2, e451–e461 (2018).
van Bers, C. et al. Advancing the research agenda on food systems governance and transformation. Curr. Opin. Environ. Sustain. 39, 94–102 (2019).
Rosenzweig, C. et al. The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP): protocols and pilot studies. Agric. For. Meteorol. 170, 166–182 (2013).
Valin, H. et al. The future of food demand: understanding differences in global economic models. Agric. Econ. 45, 51–67 (2014).
von Lampe, M. et al. Why do global long-term scenarios for agriculture differ? An overview of the AgMIP Global Economic Model Intercomparison. Agric. Econ. 45, 3–20 (2014).
Wallach, D., Mearns, L. O., Ruane, A. C., Rötter, R. P. & Asseng, S. Lessons from climate modeling on the design and use of ensembles for crop modeling. Clim. Change 139, 551–564 (2016).
Emmerling, J. et al. A multi-model assessment of inequality and climate change. Nat. Clim. Change 14, 1254–1260 (2024).
Rockström, J. et al. The EAT–Lancet Commission on healthy, sustainable, and just food systems. Lancet 406, 1625–1700 (2025).
Harrison, P. A., McElwee, P. D. & van Huysen, T. L. (eds) The Thematic Assessment on the Interlinkages among Biodiversity, Water, Food and Health (NEXUS Assessment) (IPBES, 2024).
Hendriks, S. et al. in Science and Innovations for Food Systems Transformation (eds von Braun, J. et al.) 581–601 (Springer, 2023).
Beier, F. D. et al. Planetary boundaries under a land-based climate change mitigation scenario with a food demand transformation: a modelling study. Lancet Planet. Health 9, 101249 (2025).
Yang, J., Gao, L., Liu, Q. & Guo, Z. Assessing environmental impacts of response strategies for sustainable food system transformation. Sustain. Dev. 32, 2435–2453 (2024).
van Zanten, H. H. E. et al. Integrating circularity into the 2025 EAT–Lancet framework: a global modelling analysis. Lancet Planet. Health 9, 101337 (2025).
Pereira, L. M. et al. Solving science conundrums in the climate–nature–equity polycrisis with integrated transformative scenarios. One Earth 9, 101710 (2026).
Thornton, P., Chang, Y., Loboguerrero, A. M. & Campbell, B. Perspective: What might it cost to reconfigure food systems? Glob. Food Secur. 36, 100669 (2023).
Mottet, A. et al. Livestock: on our plates or eating at our table? A new analysis of the feed/food debate. Glob. Food Secur. 14, 1–8 (2017).
Lambin, E. F. et al. Estimating the world’s potentially available cropland using a bottom-up approach. Glob. Environ. Change 23, 892–901 (2013).
Meyfroidt, P. et al. Ten facts about land systems for sustainability. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 119, e2109217118 (2022).
Blackwell, M. S. A. et al. Potential unintended consequences of agricultural land use change driven by dietary transitions. npj Sustain. Agric. 2, 1 (2024).
Schierhorn, F., Gittelson, A. K. & Müller, D. in Land Use Competition: Ecological, Economic and Social Perspectives (eds Niewöhner, J. et al.) 165–182 (Springer, 2016).
Lambin, E. F. & Meyfroidt, P. Global land use change, economic globalization, and the looming land scarcity. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 108, 3465–3472 (2011).
Schierhorn, F. et al. Post-Soviet cropland abandonment and carbon sequestration in European Russia, Ukraine, and Belarus. Glob. Biogeochem. Cycles 27, 1175–1185 (2013).
Wuepper, D., Borrelli, P., Mueller, D. & Finger, R. Quantifying the soil erosion legacy of the Soviet Union. Agric. Syst. 185, 102940 (2020).
Lowder, S. K., Sánchez, M. V. & Bertini, R. Which farms feed the world and has farmland become more concentrated? World Dev. 142, 105455 (2021).
Herrero, M. et al. The roles of livestock in developing countries. Animal 7, 3–18 (2013).
Béné, C. et al. Five priorities to operationalize the EAT–Lancet Commission report. Nat. Food 1, 457–459 (2020).
Davis, B., Lipper, L. & Winters, P. Do not transform food systems on the backs of the rural poor. Food Secur. 14, 729–740 (2022).
Marrero, A. et al. Equity as a priority in EAT–Lancet-aligned food system transformations. Nat. Food 5, 811–817 (2024).
FAO. The State of Food and Agriculture 2023: Revealing the True Cost of Food to Transform Agrifood Systems (FAO, 2023).
Andreyeva, T., Marple, K., Marinello, S., Moore, T. E. & Powell, L. M. Outcomes following taxation of sugar-sweetened beverages: a systematic review and meta-analysis. JAMA Netw. Open 5, e2215276 (2022).
Taillie, L. S., Hall, M. G., Popkin, B. M., Ng, S. W. & Murukutla, N. Experimental studies of front-of-package nutrient warning labels on sugar-sweetened beverages and ultra-processed foods: a scoping review. Nutrients 12, 569 (2020).
Taillie, L. S., Busey, E., Stoltze, F. M. & Dillman Carpentier, F. R. Governmental policies to reduce unhealthy food marketing to children. Nutr. Rev. 77, 787–816 (2019).
Gilmore, A. B. et al. Defining and conceptualising the commercial determinants of health. Lancet 401, 1194–1213 (2023).
Resnick, D. & Swinnen, J. (eds) The Political Economy of Food System Transformation: Pathways to Progress in a Polarized World (Oxford Univ. Press, 2023).
Swinburn, B. Power dynamics in 21st-century food systems. Nutrients 11, 2544 (2019).
Swinburn, B. A. et al. The global syndemic of obesity, undernutrition, and climate change: the Lancet Commission report. Lancet 393, 791–846 (2019).
Chen, P. J. & Antonelli, M. Conceptual models of food choice: influential factors related to foods, individual differences, and society. Foods 9, 1898 (2020).
Otto, I. M. et al. Social tipping dynamics for stabilizing Earth’s climate by 2050. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 117, 2354–2365 (2020).
Kong, F. et al. Comprehensive evaluation of GLP-1 receptor agonists: an umbrella review of clinical outcomes across multiple diseases. Nat. Commun. 17, 972 (2026).
Hirvonen, K., Bai, Y., Headey, D. & Masters, W. A. Affordability of the EAT–Lancet reference diet: a global analysis. Lancet Glob. Health 8, e59–e66 (2020).
Springmann, M., Clark, M. A., Rayner, M., Scarborough, P. & Webb, P. The global and regional costs of healthy and sustainable dietary patterns: a modelling study. Lancet Planet. Health 5, e797–e807 (2021).
Rosenzweig, C. et al. Coordinating AgMIP data and models across global and regional scales for 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C assessments. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A 376, 20160455 (2018).
Cointe, B., Cassen, C. & Nadaï, A. Organising policy-relevant knowledge for climate action: integrated assessment modelling, the IPCC, and the emergence of a collective expertise on socioeconomic emission scenarios. Sci. Tech. Stud. 32, 36–57 (2019).
Evenson, R. E., Pray, C. E. & Rosegrant, M. W. Agricultural Research and Productivity Growth in India (IFPRI, 2019).
Hareau, G. et al. Updating Yield Growth Rates in the IMPACT Model to Enhance Global Analysis of the Future of Agriculture (IFPRI, 2025).
Wiebe, K. et al. Climate change impacts on agriculture in 2050 under a range of plausible socioeconomic and emissions scenarios. Environ. Res. Lett. 10, 085010 (2015).
Sundiang, M. et al. Bundling measures for food systems transformation: a global, multimodel assessment. Lancet Planet. Health 9, 101339 (2025).
Jägermeyr, J. et al. Climate impacts on global agriculture emerge earlier in new generation of climate and crop models. Nat. Food 2, 873–885 (2021).
Thornton, P., Nelson, G., Mayberry, D. & Herrero, M. Impacts of heat stress on global cattle production during the 21st century: a modelling study. Lancet Planet. Health 6, e192–e201 (2022).
Nelson, G. C. et al. Global reductions in manual agricultural work capacity due to climate change. Glob. Change Biol. 30, e17142 (2024).
FAOSTAT. FAOSTAT Data (FAO, accessed 30 July 2024); https://www.fao.org/faostat/en/#data.
Klein Goldewijk, K., Beusen, A., Doelman, J. & Stehfest, E. Anthropogenic land use estimates for the Holocene—HYDE 3.2. Earth Syst. Sci. Data 9, 927–953 (2017).
Gibson, M. Data for ‘Food systems transformation would imply a radical restructuring of global agriculture’. Zenodo https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.17570720 (2025).
Gibson, M. Code for Figures 1-3 of Submitted Manuscript. Zenodo https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.14876855 (2025).