Tropical Depression Two is forecast to strengthen to Tropical Storm Bertha Monday, with a threat of heavy rain along the Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle to Louisiana and Texas.
The National Hurricane Center issued its first advisory on T.D. Two late Sunday morning as it was centered south of Panama City, Florida. Once its winds reach 40 mph, it will be named Tropical Storm Bertha, the second storm of the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season.
(MORE: El Niño factoring into hurricane season outlook)
Here are the latest alerts
The map below shows where tropical storm watches and/or warnings are in effect.
These alerts mean tropical storm conditions are either possible (watch) or expected (warning).
(MORE: Tropical Depression Two maps tracker)
Where the system is now
The radar and satellite map below shows where it is now. As you can see, it’s a rather broad system with showers spread far from its center from parts of Florida to Louisiana.
Here is the latest forecast
Where it may go
This system won’t move much through Monday, but is then expected to begin a west or west-northwest track starting Tuesday.
As usual, the exact track of this future Bertha is uncertain, but in general, it could be near the Louisiana coast sometime Wednesday into Thursday, then possibly into Texas after that.
How strong it could get
First, this system will have to battle wind shear and dry air, two nemeses of tropical storms.
Despite that, it is expected to become Tropical Storm Bertha by Monday.
How strong Bertha becomes not only depends on how well it fights off wind shear and dry air, but also its track.
If Bertha’s center runs into land, that would mean a less strong storm as it loses its energy source from the Gulf.
But if Bertha’s center stays over the Gulf longer, it could be stronger, feeding off the warm Gulf water in the mid-upper 80s until its final landfall later this week.
All interests along the Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle to Texas should monitor this forecast closely for any changes.
Now is always a good time to make sure you’re prepared for hurricane season, well before any storms threaten.
(MORE: How to stay safe in hurricane season)
Soaking rain possible
Locally heavy rain is possible with Bertha from the Florida Panhandle to Louisiana and Texas through next weekend.
Some areas could see up to 8 inches of rain, triggering local flash flooding, especially in urban areas.
This forecast also depends on the exact track of Bertha, which again, is uncertain in this early stage.
Other threats
Some coastal flooding and storm surge, especially at high tide, can be expected as Bertha organizes and gains strength along at least parts of the northern Gulf Coast.
That will also be accompanied by rip currents, so it’s probably best to stay out of the water at Gulf Coast beaches this week, even if the weather at the time looks okay.
A few tropical tornadoes or waterspouts are also possible along the northern Gulf Coast this week.
Jonathan Erdman is a senior meteorologist at weather.com and has been covering national and international weather since 1996. Extreme and bizarre weather are his favorite topics. Reach out to him on Bluesky, X (formerly Twitter) and Facebook.