Remember when governments took bold steps – deregulating the dollar, introducing the GST, freeing up trade and rolling out the NDIS?
Not any more, even though the need is greater than ever.
Treasury explicitly advised Jim Chalmers in its post-election advice that the budget settings are “unsustainable”, that personal and company tax are too high and that “indirect taxes” are a solution for reform.
Addressing the intergenerational inequity in our tax system requires courage and vision. At this rate, we will be passing on a lower standard of living, diminished health and education outcomes, and a degraded environment to younger Australians.
The most recent federal election was defined by embarrassing small-mindedness from the major parties – promises of $7 off your weekly fuel bill or a $5 tax cut. These are not serious solutions to the structural challenges we face.
When you combine these small-target strategies with the increasing need to show an electoral “mandate” before tackling any policy issue, how will we ever address the big challenges?
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There are two schools of thought about how reform happens: one argues that it requires a strong majority government; the other believes it will take a minority government pushed by a principled crossbench.
The fact that overall support for the major parties fell again with 33.6% of voters supporting community independent or minor party candidates demonstrates increasing frustration at the major parties’ unwillingness to confront Australia’s long-term challenges.
The election of independents to the crossbench was driven by two decades of gridlock on economic reform, coupled with a lack of a coherent approach to climate change mitigation. During the 2022 election campaign and immediately after, I spoke of the urgent need for broad tax reform. In the last parliament, I raised this issue in the house 10 times. Allegra Spender spoke about it 21 times. The major parties avoided the topic entirely.
I was heartened by the treasurer’s decision to expand the agenda for the economic reform roundtable to include tax reform. Could this be the moment when the government finally confronts the structural challenges in our budget and the demographic shifts ahead?
It was refreshing to hear the treasurer push back against the “rule in, rule out” game that has stifled meaningful debate for years. But unfortunately, the prime minister is managing our expectations down to tinkering.
The case for tax reform is compelling and GST provides an opportunity. Our current tax system disproportionately burdens younger Australians. Bracket creep – the stealthy tax increase on workers – is our only plan for addressing the deficit.
We need to explore alternatives with productivity in mind. The economist Chris Murphy has shown that, per extra dollar of revenue raised, the GST causes the least economic harm, followed by personal income tax, and then company tax.
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Yet our GST is among the narrowest and lowest in the OECD. It applies to just 7.5% of the economy, compared with an OECD average of over 11%, and its rate is half the OECD average. Broadening the base and increasing the rate could allow us to shift the tax burden from those who work to those who spend.
In anticipation of the roundtable, the economist Richard Holden and I revisited our 2023 work and asked the Parliamentary Budget Office to model a “progressive GST” – a way to relieve pressure on personal income tax while protecting low- and middle-income earners.
Under our model, the GST rate would increase to 15% and exemptions would be removed. To ensure equity, every Australian adult would receive a $3,300 annual payment, effectively making the first $22,000 of spending GST-free. PBO modelling shows this could leave the bottom 60% of income earners better off, even before accounting for the personal income tax cuts enabled by the additional $24bn in revenue.
This is the test. The Labor government has a 19-seat majority. If a comfortable margin is truly a prerequisite for reform, now is the time to act.
If we see no action now and the major parties decide an electoral mandate is required, they are now on notice. The voters are on to you. You have three years to build community support for a bold and viable plan to fix our tax system.
Any party that wants to be taken seriously as a contender for government in 2028 must come to the election with a tax plan that is fair, future-focused and fit for the demographic changes ahead. The small-target game is over. Australians are ready for courageous action to secure a prosperous future for our children.
Kate Chaney is the independent member for Curtin