Kremer has given up home runs at an outsized rate this season. The Twins are betting that’s small-sample noise. Evan Habeeb / USA TODAY
Orioles get: OF Jhomnardo Reyes
Twins get: RHP Dean Kremer
Kremer should bounce back to be what he is: dependable rotation depth
Orioles: A-
Twins: A-
For what the Twins sought — reliable rotation depth — I don’t mind this trade one iota. Kremer is coming off two blow-up starts that ballooned his ERA to 6.50. Two weeks ago, he had a 4.15 season ERA, which was right in line with his career ERA (4.26) and similar to his ERAs for each of the previous three seasons (4.19, 4.10, 4.12). That’s who he is. A solid, league-average starter. Don’t get lost in the sloppiness of the last two outings.
Now, Kremer also has clear flaws. Stuff models hate him. He continues to evolve and expand his pitch arsenal, yet he can’t get a left-handed hitter out to save his life right now — they are putting up down-ballot MVP numbers against Kremer this season, slashing .281/.341/.622 — as he has gone splitter-heavy against lefties. But that’s a seven-start sample; across his career, he hasn’t had a huge lefty issue. Kremer is a homer-prone pitcher, yet that problem has typically been less pronounced away from Camden Yards. The fact that opposing hitters’ pull-air percentage — the most likely batted balls to result in home runs — against Kremer is up 12 percent over his career norm this year also strikes me as more small-sample noise. The Twins will probably pay Kremer about $9 million over the 16 months before he is scheduled to reach free agency. They’ll probably get 40 starts with a 4.15 ERA. They’ll probably be happy with that.
Typically, one-plus years of a starter of Kremer’s caliber — yes, even league average is valuable — would bring back a couple top-30 prospects in a trade. The Orioles only landed one here because that prospect is a really intriguing one: Jhomnardo Reyes, a Dominican corner outfielder the Twins signed for $300,000 in 2025. Prior to the trade, FanGraphs ranked Reyes the No. 10 prospect in the Twins system. One team source profiles him as a likely corner outfielder who hits hard “with potentially above-average power but (is) already showing some swing-and-miss in the zone.” MLB.com currently has him as the Orioles’ No. 20 prospect, though the arrow appears to be pointing up. Baseball America called Reyes a breakout prospect and “arguably one of the top hitters across any complex league circuit this summer.” He has an .855 OPS in rookie ball.
— Stephen J. Nesbitt
A lottery ticket for an arm you don’t need in the long run? Sounds pretty good
Orioles: A-Twins: B
For Minnesota, this is the kind of unsexy move that should help stabilize the back end of the rotation. Ignore the 6.50 ERA (and even the 6.24 FIP) Kremer’s shown in seven big-league starts this season. That’s the product of an absurd 12 homers in 36 innings for a guy who’s generally given up long balls at a league-average rate. That should even out over time, allowing Kremer to look more like the back-end starter with an ERA just above the league-average that he’d been for years in Baltimore before this spring’s quad strain.
Baltimore’s growing number of near-ready starters in the minors was going to make Kremer superfluous soon enough, and Reyes is the exact kind of lottery ticket you like picking up this time of year. An 18-year-old lefty-swinging outfielder with the potential for some serious pop, Reyes raked in the Complex League before a recent move to the Florida State League. — Tim Britton
Aug 1, 2026
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