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Brussels Playbook

By GABRIEL GAVIN

with ZOYA SHEFTALOVICH

WHILE YOU WERE SLEEPING: U.S. President Donald Trump piled pressure on his Ukrainian counterpart Volodymyr Zelenskyy ahead of their crucial meeting in the White House. “President Zelenskyy of Ukraine can end the war with Russia almost immediately, if he wants to, or he can continue to fight,” Trump said on Truth Social this morning — again putting the onus on Kyiv rather than on Russia’s foot-dragging President Vladimir Putin to make a peace deal.

Trump’s terms: Trump set out his conditions for peace, saying Ukraine would not be getting Crimea back and “NO GOING INTO NATO BY UKRAINE. Some things never change!!!” He didn’t specify any conditions for Putin’s Russia. Some things never change, indeed.

Zelenskyy’s response: “Peace must be lasting,” Zelenskyy said in his own post after arriving in Washington this morning. “Not like it was years ago, when Ukraine was forced to give up Crimea and part of our East—part of Donbas—and Putin simply used it as a springboard for a new attack. Or when Ukraine was given so called ‘security guarantees’ in 1994, but they didn’t work.”

Grateful, but firm: In what will surely be music to U.S. Vice President JD Vance’s ears, Zelenskyy said: “Our people will always be grateful to President Trump.” But, he added, it is Russia that “must end this war, which it itself started.” Gigi Ewing has the full details.

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GOOD MORNING, it’s Monday. I’m Gabriel Gavin, coming to you after a long weekend of geopolitical intrigue that has forced European leaders and diplomats to interrupt their holidays, switch out swimwear for business attire and try to work out what Trump is really up to. Sarah Wheaton will provide your next morning fix.

DRIVING THE DAY: THE NEW PEACE POSSE       

YOU’LL NEVER WALK ALONE: Zelenskyy has arrived in Washington ahead of a potentially momentous showdown with Trump later today — but this time he’s not on his own. Fearing Trump could try to force Kyiv to sign up to a bad peace deal that would pave the way for yet more Russian aggression, European leaders are flying in to back him up in the Oval Office.

Trump’s latest Truth-storm won’t have put their minds at ease, despite the president posting that hosting “so many great European Leaders” is “a great honor for America!!!”

All aboard: According to diplomats who spoke to Playbook, the initiative was put together by Finnish President Alexander Stubb and NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte. Alongside them are European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, France’s Emmanuel Macron and Italy’s Giorgia Meloni. Other leaders offered to join, but the guest list was deliberately kept short.

One potential stumbling block: Trump plans to face the White House press pool with Zelenskyy alone, before meeting together with the Europeans almost two hours later (full timing at the bottom of Driving the Day).

What does Zelenskyy’s backup crew want? “What we’re looking out for is the security of Europe not being compromised after all this is over,” said one European diplomat, granted anonymity to speak about the thinking behind the trip. “We’re making sure that we keep the pressure on Russia, ready to step up the sanctions the moment we feel that the Russian leader is stalling the negotiations. Strong security guarantees must come out of this, that’s the main thing.”

Reining in The Don: A second person with direct knowledge of the talks told POLITICO that the main reason for tagging along is to make sure Trump sticks to the positions agreed with European capitals, and doesn’t blindside Ukraine with new demands after his closed-door chat with Putin in Alaska on Friday.

What’s on the agenda? Debriefing allies on a call over the weekend, Trump reportedly said he believed the Kremlin would do a deal if Ukraine handed over Donbas, including large parts of the eastern region that Moscow doesn’t control, in exchange for relinquishing tiny pockets of land. Kyiv has previously warned that would mean giving up key defensive positions and being more vulnerable to Russian attacks in the future, and Zelenskyy again reiterated that position in his social media response to Trump this morning.

Freezing the fighting: “We need real negotiations,” Zelenskyy head earlier told reporters in Brussels Sunday, “which means they can start where the front line is now.” Any dealmaking, he said, can happen at a trilateral meeting with him, Trump and Putin. If the Kremlin refuses to take part, he added, new sanctions would force them to the table.

No BS for Kallas: While leaders have backed away from criticism of Trump’s tactics, the bloc’s top diplomat Kaja Kallas issued a blunter assessment. “The harsh reality is that Russia has no intention of ending this war anytime soon,” she said in a statement shared with me over the weekend. “Moscow won’t end the war until it realizes it can’t continue.”

For FAC’s sake: Diplomats said Kallas looks likely to call a meeting of foreign ministers in the coming days, seeking to keep up the pressure on capitals.

Inside Zelenskyy’s mind: The Ukrainian president would be forgiven a few nerves, given last time he was in the Oval Office, the meeting ended in a diplomatic incident. “It’s very important that he’s going to be backed — not only mentally but physically, with partners from the EU,” Oleg Ustenko, a former top adviser to Zelenskyy, told Playbook (before Trump took to Truth Social this morning). “I’m optimistic about this meeting. The territorial issue is the most critical, and with Trump and the EU, they will be trying to find a solution. And Trump realizes that without Ukraine on board, nothing will happen.”

Not everyone is so upbeat: “I’m afraid Zelenskyy will be pressured to give up territory and he can’t accept this,” said Ivana Stradner, a research fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies think tank in Washington. “Giving up territory and making a fake ‘peace deal’ is a terrible idea as this will allow Putin to make a pause, reposition his military and continue with his imperialistic ambitions and take even more of Ukraine.”

What does Loraine say? Before his own posts pressuring Zelenskyy this morning, Trump had “ReTruthed” a message from a MAGA fan in Florida named Loraine, who claimed “Ukraine must be willing to lose some territory to Russia otherwise the longer the war goes on they will keep losing even more land.” Trump also posted that there would be “BIG PROGRESS ON RUSSIA,” and wrote a single-word message — “Bela” — with no explanation or update.

Promises for peace: Meanwhile, allies hope they’ve gotten through about the need for deterrence against future Russian attacks. In an interview with Fox News, Trump’s special envoy Steve Witkoff said there was support for “much more robust security guarantees [and] EU admission” and even suggested “Article 5-like” protection was on the table for Ukraine, a reference to NATO’s mutual defense provisions.

Now read this: Ivo Daalder, former U.S. ambassador to NATO, writes in an op-ed for POLITICO that Trump isn’t the peacemaker he thinks he is.

MONDAY TIMING: European leaders arrive at the White House at noon local time/6 p.m. Brussels time … Zelenskyy arrives at the White House at 1 p.m. local/7 p.m. Brussels time … Oval Office spray featuring only Trump and Zelenskyy at 1:15 p.m. local/7:15 p.m. Brussels time … meeting with Trump, Zelenskyy and the Europeans at 3 p.m. local/9 p.m. Brussels time.

Back in Brussels, the Danish presidency is considering calling a Coreper meeting of ambassadors in the next day or two to debrief afterwards, a source confirmed.

BALKANS BUBBLE OVER       

SERBS DISTURBED: Police fired tear gas, protesters let off flares. The streets of Belgrade were filled with smoke over the weekend as demonstrations against President Aleksandar Vučić hit fever point. Our correspondent Una Hajdari was among the crowds as the authorities cracked down and groups of masked pro-government hooligans confronted the marchers.

Violence and anger: “People’s frustrations have really peaked and they feel like they’re in a pressure cooker that’s about to explode,” Peđa Mitrović, an opposition lawmaker, told POLITICO. Mitrović himself was beaten outside the offices of the ruling Serbian Progressive Party in the capital. Meanwhile, a party headquarters in the western city of Valjevo was torched as dissent grows.

What next? Purportedly an EU candidate country — albeit one without any immediate chance of joining the bloc — Serbia is facing increasing fire from Brussels. “In Serbia, the rule of law is trampled on every day: the police act as a militia in the service of the ruling party and of President Vučić,” said Renew MEP Sandro Gozi. “The European Union cannot turn a blind eye: a strong stance is needed, with concrete consequences for Serbia’s accession process.”

On the ground: Una’s must-read dispatch is here.

MY VIEW ACROSS THE BORDER: Just over 30 years ago, Bosnia and Herzegovina was a country locked in an interminable and bloody war. Now, Sarajevo — a multi-ethnic city of minarets and church spires, bullet-scarred apartment blocks and (luckily for me) irresistible mounds of grilled ćevapčići — has high hopes of becoming an EU capital. But a showdown with Brussels over key reforms is putting that, and its postwar power-sharing consensus, at risk.

Internal division: Last week, the country missed its deadline to agree the agenda of planned reforms and submit it to the European Commission, having already been stripped of more than €100 million in much-needed EU funding under its growth plan as a result of delays. According to Zoran Zeljko, the government’s director of economic planning, “intensive activities are underway” to agree the agenda with all the political parties. However, the populist Bosnian Serb faction SNSD, which has resisted calls to break ties with Russia, is being accused of dragging its feet after its controversial leader Milorad Dodik was convicted of unconstitutional activities.

Targeted response: Playbook caught up with Nihad Uk, the premier of Sarajevo region, who was speaking at a youth project that benefits from EU funding.“We are not taking the EU seriously,” he bemoaned of the delays, which he blames on the SNSD. But Uk warned Brussels against cutting funds for ordinary people, which Brussels has resorted to out of frustration with the impasse. “It’s a huge risk for the EU because they’re punishing the citizens of Bosnia and Herzegovina; we’re not all the same as Mr. Dodik. You need to punish him, not the whole country.”

THEY’RE LAUGHING AT EU       

FUNNY HOW? Unless you’ve been living under a rock, you’ll have come across DG MEME — the irreverent Brussels bubble satire page that has attracted hundreds of thousands of followers across social media. But, in a time defined by war, political chaos and economic uncertainty, what is there to laugh about? Playbook caught up with the director general for jokes, Fabio Mauri, to find out.

Why you lookin’ so sad? “My memes are mostly generated by a sense of despair: I try to elaborate with humor my biggest fears, my disappointments or my doubts. It is also a way to vent out and to save on psychotherapy,” Mauri said. His page routinely takes on tricky geopolitical questions with reference to “The Office,” “Brooklyn Nine Nine,” and the founding articles of the EU.

They’re not laughing any more: Ours is a time defined by ignorance and division, according to the expert poster. “But I wouldn’t say this makes it harder for comedians, one just has to get more surreal. Karoline Leavitt is Karen Smith [portrayed by Amanda Seyfried in the “Mean Girls” movie] who became White House press secretary. Mike Waltz could have a significant role in the ‘Naked Gun.’ RFK Jr. as secretary of health is the proof that Trump has a sadistic sense of humor.”

DEFENSE BOOST       

MERZ <3 MINERALS: Germany has big plans to boost its defense spending after a long period of inefficiency, stagnation and mismanagement. But its ability to face off against hostile states could be undermined by, well, hostile states, according to my Berlin colleague Chris Lunday.

We have to be nice to Beijing? The German defense industry is overly reliant on Chinese critical materials, Chris writes. “If China-sourced materials suddenly fall away, that could stop our defense industrial plans in their tracks,” said Jakob Kullik, a researcher at Chemnitz University of Technology. That’s bad news for a Europe gearing up for a more uncertain world. Read the full story here.

WAR. WHAT IS IT GOOD FOR? Slovakia, apparently. Populist Prime Minister Robert Fico has become one of Ukraine’s toughest critics inside the EU, opposing sanctions, suspending military assistance and trying to block NATO membership for Kyiv. But the country’s arms industry is cashing in on bulk orders from the country, Csongor Körömi reports.

**The future of Europe’s competitiveness starts here. From strategic autonomy to transatlantic trade, defense, and digital innovation, what’s next for the continent? Find out at POLITICO Competitive Europe Summit on October 1-2 in Brussels. Apply now to secure your spot onsite.**

IN OTHER NEWS       

`NATIONAL RALLY AIN’T SO PALLY: They might want to unite France behind them, but they’ll have to get over their own divisions first. Paris’ leading far-right faction is in pole position going into the next presidential election — but the key contest is happening inside its ranks.

With friends like these … MEP Jordan Bardella, who looks a little bit like a politician imagined by AI, is the head of the party and, at just 29, has bigger ambitions than most of his peers who are worrying about student loans and situationships. That’s put him on a collision course with Marine Le Pen, who inherited the group from her Holocaust-denying father. Marion Solletty a fantastic deep dive out this morning into the battle for France’s far right.

GET OFF YOUR PHONE: More than one in 10 teens could be addicted to social media to the point that it’s damaging their health, according to the World Health Organization. But efforts to formulate a policy response — including age limits, awareness campaigns and bans — have struggled to gain consensus. Claudia Chiappa, Mari Eccles and Eliza Gkritsi have the inside story on the virtual pandemic.

OTHER ONLINE DANGERS: Russian propaganda is spoofing some of the most trusted media brands, including the BBC, ABC News and POLITICO, to disseminate disinformation. A group of expert information warriors has been focusing on flooding the internet with fake content surrounding the German SNAP elections and the upcoming Moldovan parliamentary vote, Dana Nickel reports.

DIGITAL RULES are delaying the agreement of a joint trade text between the U.S. and the EU, the Financial Times reported over the weekend.

BRUSSELS CORNER       

WEATHER: High of 25C, sunny.

GOING DUTCH? The Flemish government is launching a plan to strengthen the use of Dutch in Brussels. It includes a buddy program that will link teens with Flemish people studying in Brussels, language-focused holiday weeks for preschoolers, and strengthening bilingualism in the government services, including the police and hospitals. All this before the potholes get fixed …

Ik spreek geen Nederlands: Around 81 percent of Bruxellois spoke French in 2024, while only 22 percent spoke Dutch — and that’s a rebound. English, which is not even an official language, is spoken by almost 47 percent.

NOT VERY AP-PEELING: Waste Warriors, an organization dedicated to fighting food waste, is on a mission to save 800 tonnes of potatoes and tubers that aren’t good enough to be sold in stores. To raise awareness, they’re building “potato mountains” in several Belgian cities on Aug. 23. The potatoes will be sold at low prices to prevent them from going to waste.

BIRTHDAYS: Former Vice President of the European Commission Věra Jourová; POLITICO’s Hanne Cokelaere and Laura Prier; The Parliament Magazine reporter Federica Di Sario; Süddeutsche Zeitung’s Laurenz Gehrke; Ava Lloyd from AstraZeneca; ECOS’ Mathilde Crêpy; Tim Nuthall from the Global Strategic Communications Council; European Commission’s Isabelle Krauss; EU Representation of Occitanie in Brussels’ Honorine Schwarz; Polish politician Zbigniew Ziobro, a POLITICO 28 alum.

THANKS TO: Veronika Melkozerova, Luke McGee, Jacopo Barigazzi, Elena Giordano, Sarah Wheaton, Joe Stanley-Smith; Playbook reporter Ketrin Jochecová, Playbook editor Alex Spence and Playbook producer Catherine Bouris.

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