Russia could attack a Nato country within weeks to test the alliance’s resolve, US intelligence has warned.
US officials believe Russia might attempt to escalate tensions by mounting a small land incursion or launching cyber attacks across Eastern Europe any time from this autumn to 2029, The Wall Street Journal reported.
The report marks a significant shift in US intelligence assessments from their previous stance that Vladimir Putin would not attack while still caught up in his war in Ukraine.
Last month, The Telegraph reported that European and US intelligence had picked up on Russian considerations for an armed provocation on Polish soil, missile or drone attacks against critical infrastructure, or false flag attacks attempting to pin blame on Ukraine.
Moscow was assessed to be planning these as options to escalate tensions amongst Nato allies and deter them from continuing to support Kyiv before the war’s fifth anniversary.
Reports of a possible provocation come after a Russian missile landed in Poland last week and an explosive drone was found at Leipzig/Halle airport in Germany on Tuesday. The drone’s target is believed to have been a Ukrainian jet carrying weapons.
Military police at the scene of a Russian cruise missile strike in Poland in July – Jakub Orzechowski/Agencja Wyborcza.pl
For months, the leaders of Poland and the Baltic states have spoken of the mounting threat posed by Russia to Nato’s eastern flank.
On Thursday, the Lithuanian defence minister warned that the Kremlin was planning to use Ukrainian-made drones to attack the Baltics.
Robertas Kaunas said Moscow could use the “false flag” attack in an attempt to divide Europe and weaken support for Ukraine.
Later on Thursday, Wes Streeting, the Defence Secretary, warned that reported Russian provocations against the UK were just the “tip of the iceberg”.
Mr Streeting was referring to the Russian warship Neustrashimy, which carried out a live fire exercise in the English Channel, not far from Plymouth, last month.
He told The Sun: “Incidents like the shooting in the Channel are performative, irresponsible and designed to provoke. It does at least provide the British with a visible manifestation of the provocations we see from Russia every day.”
US intelligence has been warning Poland and the three Baltic states that Putin is now prepared to target the alliance while still fighting in Ukraine.
The American assessment changed earlier this year, US officials said, as the Russian president found himself under increasing pressure and unable to secure a victory over Kyiv and the West.
The possible threats range from a cyber attack or sending unmarked groups to occupy territory to a limited incursion on the alliance’s eastern flank. While the likelihood of the latter is low, intelligence reports say the risk becomes higher as time goes on.
A ground assault has previously been considered highly unlikely as it would risk Nato activating its Article 5 mutual defence clause, which states an attack on one member is an attack on them all.
The latest intelligence assessments circulated via Nato suggest that Putin could instead favour political interference, sabotage or other hybrid tactics because defeating the alliance militarily is too great a challenge, sources told The Telegraph.
Col Martin O’Donnell, a Nato spokesman, said the alliance was “ready to deter and defend as necessary”, adding that the alliance was “always thinking through and preparing for any number of scenarios”.
On Tuesday, an explosive-laden drone was found next to a Ukrainian cargo plane at Leipzig/Halle. The origin was unclear, but German politicians have blamed Moscow.
Berlin launched a counter-terrorism investigation after the drone, which was carrying a Semtex device, was discovered close to the Antonov Airlines aircraft shortly before midnight, forcing the airport to close.
The airport, in eastern Germany, plays a key role in the transportation of military goods – including for the German military and Nato allies – and serves as a base for Antonov jets. Nato said it was aware of the attack.
An officer in protective clothing works at Leipzig/Halle airport, where an explosive drone was found earlier this week – Axel Schmidt/Reuters
The goal of any provocation against Nato would be to escalate tensions within the alliance and force its member states to suspend aid to Ukraine.
In May, the Lithuanian prime minister was forced to hide in an underground bunker after Nato jets were scrambled to intercept an attack drone flying towards Vilnius.
Last month, Nato accused Russia of carrying out a “reckless” attack after a cruise missile crashed into a field near a Polish village.
The projectile, believed to be a Kh-101 missile, left a 10m-wide crater near the village of Tarnawa-Kolonia, around 60 miles from the Ukraine border.