Trump likes to say that Iran’s leaders are desperate to make a deal. He’s right that they will make a deal. But they don’t seem desperate. In fact, their position seems to be “Give us everything we want and then go away.” On Saturday, Mohammad Bagher Zolghadr, the secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, drew a line in the sand and played his ace. He issued a statement saying (Google translation), “Until America corrects its behavior, the Strait of Hormuz will not open.”
He goes on to enumerate the ways in which America must correct its behavior. There are six conditions: stop threatening us, end the war, lift the blockade, pay for the damage you caused, lift the sanctions, and give us our money back. Zolghadr finished by writing that Iran “will never back down, whether in war or in negotiations.”
The administration has not reacted (as of this writing). However, if previous form holds, Trump will make some hollow threat about the US visiting a civilization-ending Armageddon on the Islamic Republic before doing nothing significant. Regardless, the Mullahs won’t care. Domestically, they no longer worry about a popular uprising. Any thought among Iran’s citizenry that America was a potential knight in shining armor has been dashed by the US’s explosive but ineffective performance so far in the war.
The US achieved one objective. It killed Iran’s supreme leader on day one. But Iran has a deep management bench. Overall, America took its best shot in the first week of the war. Yet Iran was unbowed. And remains defiant — with good reason.
The initial shock-and-awe attack damaged much of Iran’s combat ability — but it didn’t destroy it. The administration crows that it has demolished Iran’s air and naval power. But Iran is still fighting. We shouldn’t be surprised. Another war shows that the old rules no longer apply.
Ukraine has no navy, and it doesn’t do much with its air force. But four years after Putin promised a rollover win, the former Soviet republic is still standing, while Russia pays an ever-increasing cost for minimal gains. This experience shows that 21st-century wars favor the scrappy underdog with cheap drones over the Cold War’s nuclear powers relying on multimillion-dollar weapons.
Worse, Iran is playing with a stronger hand today than in February. America is running out of missiles. CNBC reports that (on offense): “the U.S. Army has used up much of its stockpile of highly accurate long-range missiles during its five-month war with Iran.” And that (on defense): “between February and July about 65% of Patriot interceptors had been expended and that the number of THAAD ballistic missile interceptors in U.S. stockpiles was at least 38% lower than at the start of the war.”
Iran’s greatest security is that, unlike Ukraine vis-à-vis Russia, it does not have to worry much about a ground invasion. Two out of three Americans are already opposed to the war, and that is with 18 fatalities. A limited ground invasion, say to take over Iran’s oil distribution facilities on Kharg Island, would see multiples of that number dead. And repeated drone strikes on the occupiers.
An invasion of mainland Iran would resemble the Afghan folly. Except that while Iran is almost as mountainous as Afghanistan, it is three times the size. The logistics alone make the task daunting.
And there is no guarantee that the neighboring countries would allow the US to maintain bases if they continue to be in Iran’s crosshairs. Ukraine’s success at striking deep into Russia shows that when you launch hundreds of drones, some will get through no matter how good the defense.
In addition, unlike the relatively ill-educated Afghans, Iran has a robust university system with an emphasis on technology. The country does not lack the brains to build weapons.
Topographic map of Iran Wikicommons
No one can predict how Trump will react to Zolghadr’s statement. He might not know himself. Perhaps he will bomb them to at least appear he is doing something. But the war seems destined to end one of two ways. Trump gives Iran everything it wants and declares a glorious victory. Or a new President in 2029 gives Iran everything it wants and rightly blames Trump for America’s dumbest war since Vietnam.
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