The entire Chicago area is at risk of not one but potentially two rounds of severe thunderstorms Sunday, and it won’t be the only day this week where that risk will be featured.
According to the Storm Prediction Center, virtually every part of the Chicago area, with the exception of the far northern suburbs along the Wisconsin-Illinois state line, is at a “slight” risk of severe weather on Sunday, the second of five levels the SPC uses to assess the threat of powerful thunderstorms.
All severe weather threats are on the table, with dangerous wind gusts, flash flooding and even tornadoes possible as storms fire across the region.
According to the NBC 5 Storm Team, things will start out dry on Sunday, but thunderstorms were already firing around daybreak in the state of Iowa, with that first disturbance slowly pushing toward the Chicago area as clouds begin to increase late in the morning.
The first potential round of severe weather could occur around midday, though forecast models are undecided whether the storms will remain intact as they cross the Mississippi River and into Illinois. Any storms that do make it across the border could pack gusty winds and heavy rain, fueled in part by dewpoints that are expected to be in the 70s on Sunday according to forecast models.
A second and more defined threat of severe weather is expected to enter the area in the late afternoon hours, and that chance will continue well into the evening. Again all forms of severe weather are possible with storms that develop, including wind gusts in excess of 60 miles per hour, hail up to one inch in diameter, a non-zero risk of tornadoes, and heavy rain that could lead to flash flooding across the region.
Those storms could even persist past midnight in parts of northwest Indiana, but that is merely the first time this week that a threat of severe weather could exist in the area.
The entire Chicago area will again be at a slight risk of severe thunderstorms on Monday, with gusty winds and heavy rain once again the big threats, according to forecast models. High temperatures will be in the 80s, but dewpoints will still be in the 70s, with plenty of humidity to help fuel heavy rain and storm development in the region.
Tuesday again could see showers and thunderstorms, and parts of the area will again be at a “marginal” risk of severe weather, though the pattern generating the constant waves of storms will slowly begin to break down as the region gets into the middle of the coming week.
By the end of the week high temperatures are expected to be in the upper-70s, and calmer conditions are expected to persist for several days, though there is a chance of some showers on Friday night according to the NBC 5 Storm Team.
Be sure to stay tuned to the NBC 5 Storm Team throughout the day on Sunday, and download the NBC Chicago app for real-time weather alerts sent directly to your phone.