Tropical Storm Lala is likely to form soon in the central Pacific and track near Hawaii this weekend, possibly as a hurricane.
Where the system is now
The area of low pressure we’re watching closest is about 1,000 miles east-southeast of the Big Island of Hawaii.
Wednesday morning, the National Hurricane Center designated this “Potential Tropical Cyclone One-C”. That’s a term the NHC uses to allow them to alert areas before a tropical depression or storm forms.
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(MORE: What these tropical terms all mean)
Where it will go and how strong it could get
We expect this system to strengthen into Tropical Storm Lala (pronounced LAH-lah) by Thursday, at the latest.
Lala will then track toward the west-northwest, which will bring its center over or near parts of the islands Saturday into Sunday.
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Lala will most likely be a tropical storm near Hawaii, but could gain just enough strength to become a Category 1 hurricane by its closest pass this weekend.
It will then depart west of the islands by Monday, and then could spend significant time over the central and western Pacific as either a hurricane or typhoon for over a week, far from land.
(MORE: Hawaii hurricanes aren’t as unusual as they sound)
Here are the potential weekend impacts
Flooding rain
Regardless of how strong Lala’s winds are, bands of heavy rain are likely at least over the island chain.
According to the NHC, 5 to 10 inches of rain is expected over most of the islands, with peak totals up to 20 inches through Sunday.
This could lead to life-threatening flash flooding and landslides, particularly in hilly and mountainous terrain.
Winds
Strong wind gusts capable of tree damage and power outages are possible over much of the island chain this weekend.
That’s particularly the case over higher terrain. Also, the threat of downed trees is higher given the heavy rainfall loosening the soil, making it easier for winds to topple trees.
If you’re in Hawaii this weekend, you should plan for power outages that could last hours or several days and be alert of the danger of falling trees.
Coastal flooding, storm surge
Surf will build along the coast the next few days, leading to dangerous rip currents.
With Lala’s closest pass, some coastal/storm surge flooding is expected, especially along east or south-facing shores.
If you’re in Hawaii, here’s what you should do
Those in Hawaii should pay close attention to the forecast and have a hurricane plan ready to go.
Those who live in hilly or mountainous terrain susceptible to flash flooding and landslides should also be prepared, just in case evacuations are needed. You don’t need a hurricane to trigger significant flash flooding, as was the case this past March.
Lala may not be the last storm to flirt with Hawaii this season. This strengthening El Niño and warmer-than-average ocean water both usually spell a more active central Pacific hurricane season.
Jonathan Erdman is a senior meteorologist at weather.com and has been covering national and international weather since 1996. Extreme and bizarre weather are his favorite topics. Reach out to him on Bluesky, X (formerly Twitter) and Facebook.
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