On Wednesday morning (20 August), the Security Council will convene for a briefing on the Secretary-General’s 21st biannual strategic-level report on the threat posed by the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant (ISIL/Da’esh). The expected briefers are Under-Secretary-General for Counter-Terrorism and Head of the UN Office of Counter-Terrorism (UNOCT) Vladimir Voronkov, Executive Director of the Counter-Terrorism Committee Executive Directorate (CTED) Natalia Gherman, and Financial Action Task Force (FATF) President Elisa de Anda Madrazo.
The Secretary-General’s report (S/2025/496), circulated to Council members on 1 August, says that the threat posed by ISIL and its affiliates remained high during the reporting period, with the group demonstrating resilience and adaptability despite sustained counter-terrorism pressure. As in earlier reports, it identifies Africa as the epicentre of ISIL activity, with affiliates such as the Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP) and Islamic State in the Greater Sahara (ISGS) expanding their reach and propaganda output. ISWAP is assessed to have as many as 8,000 to 12,000 fighters, supported by an influx of foreign terrorist fighters from the region, while ISGS has sought to entrench itself in the Niger-Nigeria border area through alliances with local armed groups. In Somalia, ISIL is still a less potent threat than Al-Shabaab, but the affiliate is estimated to have between 600 and 800 fighters capable of mounting sophisticated attacks—as illustrated by their attempted assault on a military base in Puntland late last year—and some member states believe that the head of the group, Abdul Qadir Mumin, has been named ISIL’s overall leader. In Mozambique and the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), affiliates have also remained resilient, relying on low-intensity attacks and kidnap-for-ransom activities to sustain operations.
In the Middle East, ISIL remains active in Iraq and Syria, though its operational capacity has been curtailed by counter-terrorism operations. The Secretary-General notes that the group maintains up to 3,000 fighters across the two countries, with renewed efforts to destabilise the interim authorities that assumed power in Syria after the fall of the Assad regime in December 2024. ISIL has seized stockpiles of heavy weaponry held by the previous government and sought to recruit dissatisfied local fighters, foreign terrorist fighters, and former regime soldiers. Attacks have continued, including a June assault on a church in Damascus that killed more than 80 people. In Iraq, the group has focused on rebuilding networks along the Syrian border and restoring capacity in the Badia region, though it remains weakened following the death of its deputy leader Abu Khadija in March.
The Secretary-General’s report also highlights the threat posed by ISIL-Khorasan (ISIL-K), which continues to represent one of the most serious challenges to Afghanistan and Central Asia, with approximately 2,000 fighters. Under the leadership of Sanaullah Ghafari, ISIL-K has prioritised attacks against Shia communities, the de facto authorities in Afghanistan, and foreign nationals, while seeking to recruit from Central Asia and the North Caucasus. The most recent report of the Analytical Support and Sanctions Monitoring Team assisting the Security Council’s 1267 ISIL/al-Qaida Sanctions Committee warns that fighters who participated in the December 2024 campaign against the former Syrian government may relocate to Afghanistan and project regional threats from there.
The humanitarian and human rights situation in the detention camps in northeastern Syria remains a pressing concern. According to the Secretary-General’s report, approximately 34,800 individuals—over 60 percent of them children—remain in the al-Hol and al-Roj camps and in other facilities in dire conditions, which have been exacerbated by the instability of Syria’s political transition as well as recent funding cuts by international donors. Some of the detainees may have purported ties to ISIL. The Secretary-General warns that these facilities risk becoming incubators of radicalisation and calls again for member states to facilitate the safe, voluntary, and dignified repatriation of their nationals, treating children primarily as victims. During the reporting period, five countries repatriated nearly 6,000 individuals, while Iraq alone returned an additional 6,900 nationals, with UN support for rehabilitation and reintegration.
The Secretary-General’s report also describes the continuing exploitation of new technologies by ISIL and its affiliates. The group has experimented with artificial intelligence to enhance propaganda, including issuing guidance to supporters on evading detection while using generative AI tools. It has also sought to recruit cyber specialists to bolster its capacities and to tailor propaganda to local contexts, particularly in Africa.
In his briefing on Wednesday, Voronkov is expected to echo the Secretary-General’s concern that the threat posed by ISIL remains volatile and complex, as the group has managed to adapt in numerous contexts despite continued leadership attrition. He is likely to point to Africa as the current epicentre of activity, highlight the seriousness of the ISIL-K threat, and underscore the dangers posed by deteriorating conditions in Syrian camps and detention facilities. Voronkov may also reiterate the importance of preventive strategies that address the drivers of terrorism, the value of whole-of-society approaches, and the need to uphold international law in counter-terrorism measures. As this is expected to be his final briefing to the Council in his current capacity, he may reflect on the importance of strengthening international cooperation and note UNOCT’s continuing work in amplifying the voices of victims of terrorism.
Gherman may similarly reiterate the Secretary-General’s assessment that ISIL remains a persistent global threat—not only in Africa, the Middle East, and Afghanistan, but also in Europe and Central Asia, where the group seeks to recruit and fundraise. She may warn about ISIL’s use of artificial intelligence and social media for propaganda and recruitment while emphasising the importance of safeguards that ensure counter-terrorism responses remain consistent with countries’ human rights obligations. Regarding CTED’s work, Gherman could draw attention to the agency’s role in developing the non-binding 2025 Valletta Principles, which provide guidance on developing comprehensive and integrated national and regional counter-terrorism strategies. She may also note CTED’s recent assessment visits to member states—including Cameroon, Chad, Hungary, Malta, Norway, and Somalia—which identified technical assistance needs and tailored recommendations for implementing the Council’s counter-terrorism resolutions.
De Anda is expected to focus on efforts to counter terrorist financing. She may highlight FATF’s Comprehensive Update on Terrorist Financing Risks, developed with CTED and published in July, which analyses evolving terrorist financing risks and warns of gaps in countries’ understanding of this threat. She might also stress the importance of ensuring that measures to counter terrorist financing incorporate human rights considerations.
A central issue for the Council is the continuing resilience and adaptability of ISIL and its affiliates—particularly in Africa—despite significant counter-terrorism pressure. The humanitarian situation in Syrian camps and detention facilities is another urgent concern, especially in light of the country’s current political instability and declining support from international donors. ISIL’s exploitation of emerging technologies presents an additional challenge across jurisdictions. Against this backdrop, Council members remain united in condemning ISIL and recognising the evolving threat it poses, though differences persist over approaches to counter-terrorism, particularly regarding the balance between security measures and human rights.
On Wednesday, many members are expected to reiterate the importance of comprehensive, preventative, and regionally integrated counter-terrorism strategies, while emphasising the importance of upholding international human rights obligations and the rule of law. Several are expected to echo the Secretary-General’s call for the repatriation of individuals from Syrian camps, while others may be more cautious, citing security concerns. Members are also likely to voice alarm about ISIL’s growing use of new technologies and stress the need for international cooperation to keep up with these developments, as well as strengthened efforts to counter terrorist financing in cooperation with FATF and regional regulatory bodies. As in previous meetings, members may welcome UN support to member states and highlight the role of UNOCT, CTED, and the Monitoring Team in providing analysis, technical assistance, and capacity-building. The discussion may also reflect broader debates about the role of the Council in shaping global counter-terrorism policy, particularly in the lead-up to the expected renewal of CTED’s mandate—which expires at the end of this year—and to the ninth review of the UN Global Counter-Terrorism Strategy that the General Assembly will undertake in 2026, marking the 20th anniversary of the strategy’s adoption.
Tags: Counter-Terrorism, Insights on Counter-Terrorism
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