An Iranian missile on its way toward Israel during a previous attack. (Photo: Iranian media, via Al Mayadeen, file)
Israeli defense officials are reportedly stunned by Iran’s rapid military recovery, particularly its ability to rebuild ballistic missile production after the war.
Key Takeaways
Israeli military and Mossad officials have been surprised by the speed of Iran’s recovery following the 2026 war.
Israeli assessments that Iran’s military-industrial capabilities had been set back by years are now being reconsidered.
The most significant concern is Iran’s ballistic missile industry, where new weapons are reportedly being produced faster than Israel anticipated.
Israeli defense officials have been “shocked” by the speed at which Iran is rebuilding military capabilities damaged during the 2026 war, according to an exclusive report by the Jerusalem Post.
The newspaper reported on Thursday that the surprise extends across both the Israeli military and Mossad, although the army has taken the lead in assessing the damage inflicted on Iran’s defense industry.
For months, Israeli military officials had maintained that the scale of the attacks had set Iran’s military-industrial capabilities back by years, despite foreign media reports questioning parts of Israel’s assessment.
Four months after the main phase of the war ended in April, however, that assessment is reportedly changing.
According to the Jerusalem Post, the Israeli military is witnessing a “stunningly speedy turnaround” across several areas of Iran’s defense sector, most significantly its ballistic missile capabilities.
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Years-Long Setback?
The new Israeli assessment is significant because of the extraordinary scale of the military campaign against Iran.
According to figures cited by the Jerusalem Post, more than 2,600 Iranian missile-related and military-industrial targets were attacked during roughly 40 days of war in 2026.
The newspaper said Israel and the United States collectively carried out approximately 30,000 attacks against Iran.
Israeli military officials had subsequently claimed that both large and small components of Iran’s military industry had been extensively destroyed, raising expectations that Tehran would require years to rebuild.
The latest assessments challenge that assumption.
The Jerusalem Post said it had independently confirmed statements from senior Iranian officials indicating that Tehran is once again producing new weapons at a significantly faster pace than Israel had anticipated.
The Israeli military, responding to the newspaper, maintained that it had “substantially harmed a diverse range of central components relating to Iran’s military capabilities” during the war.
It acknowledged, however, that it continues to monitor Iranian reconstruction efforts and said its assessments are “constantly updated and brought in line with actual developments.”
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Israel Has Been Surprised Before
The newspaper noted that this is not the first time Israeli assessments of damage to Iran’s missile industry have proved overly optimistic.
Following Israeli strikes against approximately 20 missile and military-industrial targets in October 2024, the Israeli military assessed that Iranian missile production had been set back by at least a year.
By early 2025, however, Israel reportedly concluded that Iran had already restored its high-speed ballistic missile production.
Israel then struck around 100 missile and military-industrial targets in June 2025, after which officials again argued that Iran’s production capacity had been set back by several years.
Yet Tehran once again rebuilt. According to figures cited by the Jerusalem Post, Iran’s estimated ballistic missile inventory grew from approximately 1,300 missiles in June 2025 to around 2,500 by February 2026.
The much larger US-Israeli campaign in 2026 was intended to prevent another such recovery.
Israeli officials are now reportedly acknowledging that Tehran has developed “creative ways” of concentrating its resources on rebuilding strategically important capabilities even while extensive destruction remains elsewhere in the country.
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Ballistic Missile Threat
The speed of missile production may now matter more to Israeli planners than precisely how many long-range missiles Iran retained after the war.
The Jerusalem Post said previous Israeli assessments debated whether Tehran had approximately 500 or closer to 1,000 long-range missiles capable of reaching Israel after the 2026 fighting.
That calculation rested partly on the assumption that Iran would be unable to replenish its arsenal quickly.
If production has resumed at significant levels, that assumption no longer holds.
The newspaper estimated that if Iran eventually returns to producing between 100 and 300 ballistic missiles per month, it could restore its arsenal to June 2025 levels by early or mid-2027 and potentially develop a significantly greater threat by 2028.
Even at a slower production rate, the report said Iran could rebuild a major ballistic missile threat within several years.
The Israeli military declined to provide specific estimates regarding the current pace of Iranian reconstruction, saying doing so could reveal intelligence “sources and methods.”
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Implications for Another Israeli Attack
The changing assessment could have direct consequences for Israeli strategy toward Iran.
According to the Jerusalem Post, Iran’s unexpectedly rapid recovery is likely to influence Israeli calculations over whether and when another military attack may be considered, regardless of negotiations surrounding the Strait of Hormuz or Tehran’s nuclear program.
Alternatively, Israel could deprioritize the ballistic missile issue in favor of reaching arrangements addressing Iran’s nuclear capabilities, particularly given US President Donald Trump’s position on the missile question, the newspaper said.
The revelations also add another dimension to a growing debate inside Israeli media over what the war ultimately accomplished.
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(Israeli Media, Al Mayadeen, PC)