President Donald Trump’s chief negotiating strategy consists of keeping the other party guessing about what he might do next. As this pertains to Iran, the president has repeatedly threatened Tehran with additional military action, only to back off once new “peace talks” are on the table.
But it has become increasingly apparent that this approach has only emboldened Iran’s hard-liners.
Last weekend, Mohammad Bagher Zolghadr, secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, issued a new list of “demands” that the United States must meet before the mullahs will open the Strait of Hormuz. Iran wants the U.S. to cease military operations, permanently remove troops from the region, lift economic sanctions, unfreeze Iranian assets, and provide compensation for war damages.
The request is patently absurd and should be dismissed out of hand. Trump responded in typical fashion, taking to social media to mock the latter condition, saying the U.S. would also seek compensation from Iran.
Tehran’s demands indicate that the mullahs believe Trump doesn’t have the will for a drawn-out conflict. But Iran’s desperate attempts to secure a financial settlement also highlight that the U.S. blockade and bombing campaign is causing pain. According to Business Insider, Iran’s economy is facing its sharpest contraction in four decades.
In addition, the Foundation for Defense of Democracies estimated that the blockade costs Iran $435 million a day.
“Iran’s financial lifeline has been cut by the U.S. blockade, and the economy will remain in a very depressed state unless it can secure concessions,” William Jackson, a chief emerging markets economist at Capital Economics, wrote. “But whether this happens ultimately comes down to the degree of economic pain that the Iranian regime is willing to bear to achieve its military and geopolitical objectives.”
As long as oil prices remain stable–albeit slightly elevated–and the U.S. can increase or maintain the flow of oil out of the region, Iran negotiates from weakness. If Trump is unwilling to risk American lives to retake the strait, he must show his resolve to Tehran by continuing to execute the blockade and to put the squeeze on Iran that is increasingly economically vulnerable.