August 16 Sunday Morning Report
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Today will bring multiple rounds of rain, and the abundant moisture in the atmosphere could lead to flooding. As of this report, the greater risk for extreme weather is marked west of Baltimore and south of Washington, DC. However, short-range computer models have also performed poorly. That is why I highlight ‘Potential: Not A Promise’.
A Flood Watch is in effect until Midnight for Western Maryland, where 1 to 2 inches of rainfall are expected, though some locations may reach 3 to 5 inches. I want to suggest that this may be expanded farther East, which may bring Central Maryland into the conversation.
The focus is on today, with an improvement on Monday; however, some thundershowers may still develop later in the day. We will get a break on Tuesday and Wednesday, but more thunderstorms are expected to return on Thursday.
Let’s take a look.
SEVERE STORM RISK
The focus here is the expectation for stronger activity in Western Maryland to South of Washington, DC. This is close enough to consider a margin of error and the potential for expansion into Central Maryland.
EXCESSIVE RAIN OUTLOOK: Flooding Potential
Again, the highest risk will be in the high mountains where a few inches of rain are likely, but some areas could breach the 3 to 5 inch totals.
Flood Watch Until Midnight
As of this morning, this includes Western Maryland. I urge caution that this may not be the final call and could be expanded farther eastward.
Live Radar Widget
Morning Surface Weather
Radar Simulation: 8 AM to Midnight
HRRR Model Suggestion, Not a Promise
Multiple Rounds of Storms are expected
Snapshots
Noon
4 PM
Afternoon High Temperatures
8 PM
9 PM
10 PM
MOUNTAIN CAM: WESTERN MARYLAND
This webcam is positioned at The Greene Turtle Deep Creek Lake and shows Wisp Resort, including a zoomed-in view of Squirrel Cage, The Face, the terrain park, Boulder, the mountain coaster, the tubing park and a shot of McHenry Cove at Deep Creek Lake!
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CLIMATE DATA: Baltimore
Yesterday: Low 69°F; High 87°F
Precipitation: 0.00″
Snow Depth: 0″
Season Snow Total: 17.6″
Top Wind Gust: 17 mph
TODAY August 16
Sunrise at 6:21 AM
Sunset at 8:00 PM
Normal Low in Baltimore: 66ºF
Record Low: 53ºF in 2013
Normal High in Baltimore: 87ºF
Record High: 101ºF in 1997
Rainfall Deficit at BWI
Prior 2 Years (2024 + 2025) = -16.91″
2026 YTD = -2.91″
Cumulative Since 2024 = -19.82″
Drought Monitor
MONDAY
Morning Temperatures
Afternoon Temperatures
Radar and Cloud Simulation Noon to Midnight
This is one of the suggestions seen here from the RRFS Model, and it may be overdone. But I am showing this to highlight the potential timing of afternoon to evening for thundershowers. This will be followed by a break for a few days.
Looking Ahead: Tuesday to Thursday Evening
Two nice days, followed by a return of thunderstorms Thursday.
7-Day Forecast
Sunday: Strong Storms (80% chance) — High 77
Monday: Mostly Sunny, A T’Shower — Low 74, High 88
Tuesday: Sunny — Low 70, High 87
Wednesday: Sunny — Low 68, High 89
Thursday: T’Storms Return (50% chance) — Low 71, High 85
Friday: Partly Cloudy, T’Showers (40% chance) — Low 67, High 82
Saturday: Mostly Cloudy, Showers (40% chance) — Low 67, High 84
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THANK YOU:
Baltimore Sun Magazine Readers’ Choice Best Of Baltimore
7 YEARS IN A ROW
Maryland Trek 13 Was A Success
Here is our completion in Ocean City, MD on August 8, 2026.
Our team has raised OVER $240,000 for programs dedicated to families facing Childhood Cancer.
Help Support The Programs at Just In Power Kids
The annual event: Hiking and biking 329 miles in 7 days between The Summit of Wisp to Ocean City.
Each day, we honor a kid and their family’s cancer journey.
Fundraising is for Just In Power Kids: Funding Free Programs For Kids And Families Facing Childhood Cancer.
I never have and never will take a penny. It is all for our nonprofit to operate.
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RESTATING MY MESSAGE ABOUT DYSLEXIA
I am aware there are some spelling and grammar typos and occasional other glitches. I take responsibility for my mistakes and even the computer glitches I may miss. I have made a few public statements over the years, but if you are new here, you may have missed it: I have dyslexia and found out during my second year at Cornell University. It didn’t stop me from getting my meteorology degree and being the first to get the AMS CBM in the Baltimore/Washington region. One of my professors told me that I had made it that far without knowing and to not let it be a crutch going forward. That was Mark Wysocki, and he was absolutely correct! I do miss my mistakes in my own proofreading. The autocorrect spell check on my computer sometimes does an injustice to make it worse. I can also make mistakes in forecasting. No one is perfect at predicting the future. All of the maps and information are accurate. The ‘wordy’ stuff can get sticky. There has been no editor who can check my work while writing and to have it ready to send out in a newsworthy timeline. Barbara Werner is a member of the web team that helps me maintain this site. She has taken it upon herself to edit typos when she is available. That could be AFTER you read this. I accept this and perhaps proves what you read is really from me… It’s part of my charm. #FITF
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